Bubble Watch: Who's in and who's out?

Saturday night marked the 11th edition of Bubble Watch, where you can find out who has moved closer to an NCAA tournament bid and who is in danger of missing the Big Dance on Selection Sunday.

SEALED

SAN DIEGO STATE: Beat UNLV, 55-45, to win the Mountain West championship
Record: 24-8, 11-5 (tied for 3rd in Mountain West)
RPI: 26
SOS: 58
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-3
Signature wins: New Mexico (twice), UNLV (twice)
Bad losses: at Pacific
Outlook: The Aztecs have earned their way in via the automatic bid after beating UNLV in the Mountain West title game.

WASHINGTON: Beat California, 79-75, to win the Pac-10 title.
Record: 24-9, 11-7 (3rd in Pac-10)
RPI: 45
SOS: 70
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-2
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-1
Signature wins: Texas A&M, California
Bad losses: Oregon
Outlook: The Huskies have locked up a berth in the field by winning the Pac-10 title.

BUY

GEORGIA TECH: Beat N.C. State, 57-54, in the ACC semifinals
Record: 22-11, 7-9 (7th in ACC)
RPI: 33
SOS: 18
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-6
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-3
Signature wins: Duke, Maryland
Bad losses: at Virginia, at Georgia, at Miami
Outlook: The Yellow Jackets had lost five of their past seven overall entering the ACC tourney, but Paul Hewitt’s team has won three straight in the conference tourney and advanced to the championship game.
Remaining: Sunday vs. Duke in the ACC championship game

HOLD

ILLINOIS: Lost to Ohio State, 88-81, in the Big Ten semifinals
Record: 19-14, 10-8 (5th in Big Ten)
RPI: 75
SOS: 36
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-9
Record vs. Current Top 25: 4-8
Signature wins: at Wisconsin (twice); Vanderbilt; Michigan State
Bad losses: Utah (neutral); Bradley (neutral); Minnesota
Outlook: The Illini had dropped five of their past six — including a bad home loss to Wisconsin in the regular-season finale. However, Bruce Weber’s team got a huge win against Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals before losing in double overtime to Ohio State in the semis. Now, the Illini will sweat it out.

MINNESOTA: Beat Purdue, 69-42, in the Big Ten semifinals
Record: 21-12, 9-9 (6th in the Big Ten)
RPI: 59
SOS: 44
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 4-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-6
Record vs. Current Top 25: 5-6
Signature wins: Ohio State; Butler (neutral); Wisconsin, Michigan State
Bad losses: at Indiana; Michigan (swept); at Miami
Outlook: The Gophers have now beaten Michigan State and Purdue and would get the automatic bid with a win against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. If Tubby Smith’s team doesn’t beat the Buckeyes, they will be on the bubble.
Remaining: Sunday vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game

MISSISSIPPI STATE: Beat Vanderbilt, 62-52, in the SEC semifinals
Record: 23-10, 9-7 (first in SEC West)
RPI: 54
SOS: 97
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-3
Signature wins: Vanderbilt; Ole Miss (swept)
Bad losses: at Auburn; Rider; at Alabama; at Western Kentucky
Outlook: The Bulldogs had lost two straight entering the SEC tournament, but have beaten Florida and Vanderbilt to get Rick Stansbury’s team in the equation. Obviously, a win against Kentucky would give the Bulldogs an automatic berth.
Remaining: Sunday vs. Kentucky in the SEC championship game

RHODE ISLAND: Lost to Temple, 57-44, in the A-10 semifinals
Record: 23-9, 9-7 (5th in the A-10)
RPI: 40
SOS: 71
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
Record vs. Current Top 25: 0-4
Signature wins: Oklahoma State (neutral)
Bad losses: at St. Bonaventure, at UMass
Outlook: The Rams beat St. Joe’s and St. Louis to get to the A-10 semis before losing to Temple. Now, Jim Baron’s team will be waiting to see if it gets into the Big Dance or the NIT.

UTAH STATE: Lost to New Mexico State, 69-63, in the WAC championship
Record: 26-7, 14-2 (1st in WAC)
RPI: 31
SOS: 100
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-0
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-1
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-0
Signature wins: BYU
Bad losses: at Long Beach State
Outlook: The Aggies lost in the WAC title game to New Mexico State and will now have to see their fate. It could go either way.

REST OF THE BUBBLE

HOLD

FLORIDA: Lost to Mississippi State, 75-69, in the SEC quarterfinals
Record: 21-12, 9-7 (4th in the SEC East)
RPI: 55
SOS: 33
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-8
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8
Record vs. Current Top 25: 2-7
Signature wins: Michigan State (neutral); Tennessee; Florida State
Bad losses: South Alabama; at Georgia
Outlook: The Gators limped into the SEC tournament with three straight losses, but got a much-needed win against Auburn before bowing out against Mississippi State. It’ll be nail-biting time for Billy Donovan on Sunday.

VIRGINIA TECH: Lost to Miami, 70-65, in the ACC quarterfinals
Record: 23-8, 10-6 (3rd in the ACC)
RPI: 58
SOS: 133
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-4
Record vs. Current Top 25: 0-3
Signature wins: Wake Forest; Clemson
Bad losses: at Boston College; at Miami (twice)
Outlook: The Hokies have a weak non-conference schedule, but did win 10 games in league play. The regular-season finale victory at Georgia Tech helped, but the loss to Miami in the quarterfinals puts Seth Greenberg & Co. back squarely on the bubble.

SELL

ARIZONA STATE: Lost to Stanford, 70-61, in the Pac-10 quarterfinals
Record: 22-10, 12-6 (2nd in the Pac-10)
RPI: 65
SOS: 80
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Record vs. Current Top 25: 0-3
Signature wins: None
Bad losses: Stanford
Outlook: The Sun Devils had won six of their past seven entering the Pac-10 tourney, but the loss against Stanford in the quarterfinals was a killer.

DAYTON: Lost to Xavier, 78-73, in the A-10 quarterfinals
Record: 20-12, 8-8 (7th in A-10)
RPI: 51
SOS: 31
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-8
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-6
Signature wins: Xavier
Bad losses: at Saint Joseph’s; at Duquesne
Outlook: The Flyers blew a late lead against Xavier and finished losing three of their past four and four of their past six.

MEMPHIS: Lost to Houston, 66-65, in the Conference USA quarterfinals
Record: 23-9, 13-3 (2nd in C-USA)
RPI: 52
SOS: 85
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5
Record vs. Current Top 25: 0-5
Signature wins: UAB (sweep)
Bad losses: at Houston (twice); at UMass
Outlook: The Tigers ended the regular-season on a strong note with wins against UAB and Tulsa, but Josh Pastner’s team still lacks the resume wins and then lost to Houston for the second time – this time in the quarterfinals of the C-USA tourney.

MISSISSIPPI: Lost to Tennessee, 76-65, in the SEC quarterfinals
Record: 21-10, 9-7 (2nd in SEC West)
RPI: 62
SOS: 69
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-6
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-6
Signature wins: Kansas State (neutral); UTEP
Bad losses: Arkansas
Outlook: The Rebels entered the SEC tournament having won four straight, but missed a golden opportunity for a much-needed resume win against Tennessee in the quarterfinals.

SETON HALL: Lost to Notre Dame, 68-56, in the second round of the Big East tournament
Record: 19-12, 9-9 (9th in the Big East)
RPI: 61
SOS: 31
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-7
Signature wins: Pittsburgh
Bad losses: None
Outlook: Bobby Gonzalez & Co. had won three straight before losing to Notre Dame in the second round of the Big East tournament.

UAB: Lost to Southern Miss, 58-44, in the Conference USA quarterfinals
Record: 23-7, 11-4 (3rd in C-USA)
RPI: 46
SOS: 100
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-0
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
Record vs. Current Top 25: 1-2
Signature wins: Butler
Bad losses: at Virginia; Marshall; Southern Miss
Outlook: The Blazers lost to Memphis and UTEP to end the regular-season and then bowed out against Southern Miss in the C-USA tourney. Mike Davis’ team should be NIT-bound.

*RPI and SOS rankings are from CollegeRPI.com