NCAA BK

Predicting the NCAA tournament bracket

FOX Sports JORDAN SCHWARTZ
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Updated Mar 13, 2011 3:11 PM ET
     
 

It's Selection Sunday, so which teams will make the NCAA tournament field? Here is the latest set of projections from our newest bracketologist, Jordan Schwartz.

Remember: Now that the field has expanded to include 68 teams, there will be four play-in games before the normal 64-team field begins play. The "First Four" will be comprised of two games between the four lowest-seeded at-large teams and two games between the four lowest-seeded automatic bid teams. The two winners of the at-large games will be placed into the field at spots determined by the Selection Committee on Selection Sunday (most likely as 11, 12 or 13 seeds) and the two winners of the automatic bid games will be placed into the field as 16 seeds.


NEWARK REGION

 
Seed Team Comment
at Cleveland
1   Ohio State No one wants to be in Ohio State's region.
16 Hampton/
  Alabama State		 Hampton is 23-8, but Alabama State is the lowest seed in the tournament thanks to a losing record.
8 Temple A loss to Richmond dropped the Owls down the S-curve.
9 George Mason GMU's 16-game winning streak was ended by VCU in the Colonial semis but will be dancing thanks to a 7-4 mark against the top 100.
at Tucson
5 St. John's The Red Storm lost two games this season at MSG, both to Syracuse.
12 Gonzaga The 'Zags are dancing for the 13th straight year.
4 Texas The Longhorns are beginning to reclaim their early season form.
13 Oakland Oakland won at Tennessee this season, so it could be dangerous in the NCAA tournament.
at Tucson
6 Georgetown The Hoyas need Chris Wright back if they are going to make any noise in the NCAA tournament.
11 UAB The Blazers beat the teams they were supposed to beat, leading to an impressive 10-win total over the top 100 and winning the regular-season title in the eighth-ranked league has to count for something.
3 San Diego State With only one RPI top-25 win coming over a Brandon Davies-less BYU squad, the Aztecs are nothing more than a No. 2 seed.
14 St. Peter's St. Peter's upset Iona in the MAAC final to clinch its first berth since 1995.
at Washington D.C.
7 Vanderbilt Vandy has very good computer numbers and five top-50 wins.
10 Illinois Illinois could afford that loss to Michigan. The Illini should still be safe.
2 Connecticut That was amazing, but how much will the Huskies have left after five games in five days?
15 Akron Akron is dancing for the second time in three years.
 

ANAHEIM REGION

 
Seed Team Comment
at Charlotte
1 Duke Duke certainly lacks the high-end victories held by Pitt, but Coach K's team has a better winning percentage against the top 50 and top 100, as well as more wins away from home.
16 Boston University BU is dancing for the first time since 2002.
 
8 Missouri Missouri will have to improve its play away from home if it wants to last in the tournament.
9 Penn State An appearance in the Big Ten final is more than enough to lock up Penn State.
at Tulsa
5 West Virginia The loss to Marquette drops the Mountaineers down a seed.
12 Memphis The Tigers probably needed to win the Conference USA auto bid in order to get in.
4 Kentucky The Wildcats are proving this week they can win away from Rupp.
13 Belmont Belmont is dancing for the fourth time since 2006.
at Denver
6 Cincinnati The Bearcats were absolutely destroyed by Notre Dame in the Big East quarters.
11 Utah State The Aggies made things easy by winning the WAC tournament.
3 BYU This is not the same team without Brandon Davies, no matter how good Jimmer Fredette is.
14 Bucknell Bucknell defeated Lafayette in the Patriot League title game.
at Cleveland
7 Arizona The Wildcats have an unimpressive 2-5 mark vs. the top 50.
10 Richmond The Spiders would've remained in my field even if they had lost to Dayton in the Atlantic 10 final, meaning one bubble team below loses its spot.
2 Pittsburgh While Notre Dame finished second to Pitt in the Big East, the Irish won at Pitt in their only meeting and finished with a better RPI, strength of schedule (SOS) and top-100 record, so ND gets the No. 1 over Pitt.
15 Northern Colorado Northern Colorado is making its first trip to the Big Dance.

SAN ANTONIO REGION

 
Seed Team Comment
at Tulsa
1 Kansas There's little doubt that the regular-season and conference champs in the Big 12 will be the overall No. 1 seed.

 
16 Ark.-Little Rock/
Tx.-San Antonio		 With RPIs near 200, these teams will be battling it out to see who will be the sacrificial lamb for Kansas.
8 UCLA The Bruins' loss to Oregon on Thursday was their worst defeat of the season.
9 Villanova With six top-50 wins, 'Nova won't miss the Dance, but with a five-game losing streak, the Wildcats figure to make an early exit from March Madness.
at Denver
5 Old Dominion The Monarchs take a nine-game winning streak into the NCAA tournament.
12 Florida State/
Georgia		 This seed seems low for a team that is considered a lock by many, but if you just look at the Seminoles' resume, you could argue that they don't even belong in the field; Dayton's loss to Richmond in the A-10 final kept Georgia alive.
4 Wisconsin The Badgers head into the NCAA tournament with consecutive losses.
13 Princeton A buzzer beater against Harvard got Princeton to the Dance for the first time in seven years.
at Chicago
6 Xavier Xavier's loss to Dayton knocks the Musketeers down a seed.
11 USC USC won five games over top-50 teams — Texas, Arizona, @Washington, @Tennessee, UCLA — which is relatively unheard of by bubble standards.
3 Louisville A third-place finish in the regular season and a finals appearance in the Big East tournament is good enough for a No. 3 seed.
14 Long Island The Blackbirds advanced to their first NCAA tournament in 14 years.
at Tampa
7 UNLV The Rebels are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.
10 Michigan Michigan locked up a spot with a win over Illinois.
2 Florida

The Gators have an astounding 11 wins over the top 50.
15 Morehead State The Eagles won the Ohio Valley tournament.
 
 

NEW ORLEANS REGION

 
Seed Team Comment
at Chicago
1 Notre Dame Of those four schools fighting for the last two top seeds, the Irish have the most RPI top-25 wins (seven) and top-50 victories (11).
16 UNC Asheville The Bulldogs upset Coastal Carolina on the road to win the Big South tournament.
8 Marquette Beating West Virginia locked up an at-large berth for the Eagles.
9 Tennessee Beating Arkansas locked up a spot for the Volunteers.
at Tampa
5 Kansas State If the Wildcats can avoid Colorado in the NCAA tournament, they'll be all right.
12 Butler Butler made it simple for the Selection Committee by easily dispatching Milwaukee in the Horizon final.
4 Purdue Purdue enters the tournament with back-to-back losses.
13 Wofford With six of its seven leading scorers back from last year's Southern Conference championship team, Wofford returns to the Big Dance.
at Washington D.C.
6 Washington Gus Johnson should call every game Washington plays in the NCAA tournament.
11 Colorado/
VCU		 If the Buffaloes make the tournament, they will have Kansas State to thank; VCU's wins over George Mason, ODU and UCLA are better than anything you will see from the ACC bubble teams.
3 Syracuse Brandon Triche struggled from the field in Syracuse's loss to Connecticut.
14 Indiana State Indiana State upset Missouri State in the Missouri Valley final to punch its ticket for the first time since 2001.
at Charlotte
7 Texas A&M The Aggies' win over Missouri was their first against a top-50 team since Jan. 22.
10 Michigan State Michigan State didn't even need to beat Purdue, but after crushing the Boilermakers, the Spartans are definitely in.
2 North Carolina Even if they win the ACC tournament to go along with a regular-season crown, I can't see UNC deserving a top seed. A win over Duke today would only be its third victory over the top 50.
15 UCSB UCSB is making its second straight trip to the Big Dance.

The last schools in: VCU, Colorado, Florida State, Georgia

The last schools out: Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Alabama, Boston College, Harvard, Missouri State, UTEP, Washington State
Tagged: Duke, Syracuse, Connecticut, Minnesota, Georgetown, Al Nolen, Dayton, Brigham Young, Brandon Triche

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