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UNC not looking like a Final Four team

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Jeff Goodman

Jeff Goodman is a senior college basketball writer for FOXSports.com. Check out his Yardbarker blog. MORE>>
 
Updated Nov 19, 2009 1:08 PM ET
     
 

CHAPEL HILL, N.C.

Let's not sugarcoat it. This North Carolina team isn't a legitimate Final Four contender — as well they shouldn't be. Not after losing four starters, all now earning NBA paychecks, off last year's national title team.
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I missed when I put the Tar Heels at No. 5 in my preseason rankings. Badly. But I wasn't alone. The coaches poll has the Tar Heels at No. 4 and UNC checks in at No. 6 in the AP poll. Sure, these guys have the appearance of a Final Four team (heck, maybe even an NBA team) when Roy Williams throws out a long and intimidating frontline of 6-foot-10 John Henson, 6-foot-10 sophomore Ed Davis and 6-foot-9 senior Deon Thompson. They have a lock-down defender in senior leader Marcus Ginyard and so much depth up front that the Wear twins — David and Travis — probably won't get much meaningful run this season. Roy Williams has an abundance of pieces, but they just don't quite fit together. It's like putting the first 97 or 98 pieces of a jigsaw puzzle together before realizing the final few are missing. Larry Drew II isn't your typical North Carolina point guard. He's more Bobby Frasor and Quentin Thomas than Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson. If you throw Drew out there with Tyler Hansbrough in the post and Wayne Ellington and Danny Green on the wings, he'd be just fine. Or if you're playing against cupcakes such as Florida International and North Carolina Central. But the reality is that Drew is being forced to run a team with a bunch of guys adjusting to new roles — and a handful more that are making the adjustment from high school to college. "We've got to get more consistent play at the point," Williams said after his team's ho-hum 16-point season-opening win against Isiah Thomas and Florida International. The Tar Heels aren't exactly a lights-out shooting team, either. Try and figure out who the most potent perimeter shooter is. I'm not sure there is one.

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But equally important as their point guard questions (which Williams says he isn't concerned about) and the lack of perimeter scoring is the absence of a bona-fide scoring wing. That issue will be resolved a year from now when Reggie Bullock, one of the top shooting guards in the Class of 2010, arrives in Chapel Hill. And if the Tar Heels win the recruiting war for the nation's top player, Harrison Barnes, on Friday, that'll further alleviate the problem. For the time being, who gets the ball with the game on the line? Thompson is the most likely candidate and while Thomas heaped praise on the offensive-minded 6-foot-8 senior big man after Monday night's game, he's still unproven and has been inconsistent throughout his tenure in Chapel Hill. Williams has moved the long and talented Henson to the small forward spot. It's a position that Henson hasn't truly spent time at since his freshman year of high school. Henson is more Chris Bosh than Kevin Durant, more of a power forward than a small forward. The only problem: He tips the scale at less than 200 pounds and isn't ready to battle the likes of Gani Lawal or Tony Woods in the post. He's long and lean and his defense is well ahead of his offense. However, Williams is almost forced to play Henson at the small forward spot because Thompson and Davis will command big minutes at the four and five spots and Henson has a world of potential. Williams has also, out of pure necessity, moved freshman guard Dexter Strickland to the backup point guard spot — a role that will clearly take him time to learn. Strickland had five turnovers in limited minutes against FIU. "I'm in for the long haul anyway," Williams said. "I don't think they're going to fire me anytime soon." "We have a lot to go through between now and January, even now and December," said Ginyard, the veteran of the group. "There's no question we have a lot of learning to do, but I think this team has the potential to be a top-five team and make a run back to the Final Four." Potentially, but it's tough to envision — especially right now due to the inexperience and holes that will be difficult to fill. These guys won't be outscoring opponents as they were able to do a year ago. In fact, this is a Carolina team expected to go from an offensive juggernaut to one that will be difficult to score on, due to their seemingly endless length up front. But the Tar Heels haven't exactly been regarded as a defensive-oriented program in recent years — and they remain a work in progress on both ends of the court. "In a couple of months, with their length and size, they can be tough," Thomas said. "But right now their best offense is to shoot it and tap it in." This is a team that should make major strides throughout the course of the season but will also take its share of lumps with a non-conference slate that includes games against Ohio State, Michigan State, at Kentucky and against Texas in Arlington. The Tar Heels will also get either California or Syracuse, two more legitimate top 25 clubs, next week in New York at the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. "This team's upside is really big," Williams said. "But we're starting from a lower level. We're going to have some really good games and some really ugly ones." I'm not the only one who felt the Tar Heels were ranked too high. "When you have holes, you can't be a top-five team," Williams said. "That's just unrealistic." Now, the question becomes whether they can become a top-five team by the end of the season.
Tagged: Michigan State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina Central, North Carolina, Florida International, Kentucky, California, Ohio State, Texas, Wake Forest

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