Statistically Speaking, Duke is a Final Four Lock

Is Duke ready for a serious run at the national title? While the Blue Devils are positioned for a top seed, most pundits see them being a second tier title hopeful behind sexier teams like Kansas and Kentucky. The knock on Duke is that they take the opposition out behind the woodshed at home but lose that killer instinct on the road. All four of their losses have come away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.

But really, don't all good teams have most of their struggles on the road? Both of Kentucky's losses on the season were away games and the same holds true for Kansas. Therefore, I'm not buying into the notion that Duke should be shortchanged because of the occasional road game hiccup. So why do I feel like this team isn't being taken seriously this season?

The program's recent history hasn't helped matters. Duke hasn't won an ACC regular season title since the 2005-06 season and it's been nearly six years since the program's last Final Four appearance. Believe it or not, that's the longest Final Four drought for Duke since Mike Krzyzewski took over the program back in 1980.
In the 90's, we got used to penciling the Dukes into a Final Four slot in our office brackets, and more often than not they made us look good. Now that the Final Four is no longer the Coaches vs. Krzyzewski Classic, the perception is that they can't dribble and chew gum at the same time in Durham. Granted, I'm not saying this edition of the Blue Devils is as loaded as the runner up team from 1998-99 or the championship team from 2000-01. I'll definitely take my accident case to the firm of Battier, Boozer & Dunleavy before I even consider going with Scheyer, Singler & Smith. But Duke's current trio of distinction is a pretty solid bunch. They're all averaging over 17 points a contest and hoist most of the long distance shots for a team that's 21st nationally in 3-point percentage at 39.1%

Now that I bring up statistics, it's in that area where Duke's strengths are most evident. That 39.1% mark from 3-point range is in line with what last year's national champion North Carolina team (they shot 38.7%). But the similarities don't stop there. In terms of offensive efficiency (that would be points scored per 100 possessions), North Carolina led the country last season at 124.2. Currently, it's Duke that's topping the offensive efficiency ratings at 122.4.

If you flip it over to defensive efficiency, Coach K's team is actually performing a little better than Carolina did last season. The Blue Devils currently check in at third nationally at 85.9, compared to an 89.6 mark for the Heels a season ago. The ability to take care of the rock is arguably the biggest reason that the Heels made their title run last season. They finished fourth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.45. Duke is definitely in that ballpark right now with a 1.28 assist-to-turnover ratio, a figure that ranks 28th in the country.

I'll admit that comparing a top five team from this season to last season's national champ isn't an apples to apples type of thing. But it does show that this Duke team is actually pretty doggone good once you crunch the numbers. Hey, don't get me wrong, this team has its weak spots, foremost among them being a frontcourt that won't keep Bill Self or Jim Calipari up at night with fits of worry.

But once the dust has settled on Selection Sunday, really study the bracket that Duke makes it into. You might get a 90's kind of feeling all over again.

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