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Outside top 3, they wait for someone to stumble

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Pete Fiutak

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Updated Nov 3, 2009 11:57 AM ET
     
 
There weren't many dramatic changes, and the national title picture remains the same as long as the top three stay unbeaten. There was a little bit of movement up top, but it doesn't matter. Florida stayed at No. 1 and Iowa is still at No. 4 after a shaky performance against Indiana, but Texas and Alabama flip-flopped spots with the Longhorns going from No. 3 to No. 2. Of course, if Alabama wins out, including a victory over Florida in the SEC championship, it'll play for the national title. Everyone outside of the top three needs a Texas loss and/or a one-loss SEC champion to get into the discussion, and there was more jockeying among the contenders this week to try to get into position if the big breaks come. Cincinnati went from being out of the picture and put on the pay-no-mind list last week at 8 to being deep in the heart of the national championship chase in just one week. The 28-7 road win at Syracuse wasn't that impressive, but the USC loss and a wee bit more love from the computers, moving the Bearcats from sixth to fifth, were enough to cause a big jump up to the No. 5 spot and within range of one of the coveted top two spots. Cincinnati's leapfrog into the top five means that TCU and Boise State stayed the same at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, while Oregon made a nice jump up two spots to No. 8 after the big win over USC. The Trojans dropped from fifth to 12th and far out of the national title picture, but the biggest loser might be Virginia Tech, which dropped from 13th, and within range of an at-large BCS spot, to a disastrous 23rd after the home loss to North Carolina. Other interesting notes from the Week 3 rankings ... • Notre Dame gets an automatic bid if it finishes in the top eight, and can be picked as an at-large team if it finishes in the top 12, but there's almost no movement whatsoever week after week. At No. 23 last week, the Irish only moved up one spot to 22 after blowing away Washington State mainly because the computers weren't happy. The Irish were 19th last week according to the computers and were 23rd this week. There's a long way to go to get into position for a big game, but all it'll take is a spot in the top 12. The Fiesta, assuming Texas is in the BCS Championship and the Sugar takes the SEC championship loser, would take the Irish in a heartbeat as its at-large pick.
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• In the hunt for the automatic spot for a non-BCS team, TCU stayed ahead of Boise State, but there are other teams lurking. Utah, who still gets to play TCU and BYU and only has one loss to Oregon, moved up from 16th to 14th, while Houston crept up a little bit from 18th to 15th. • The ACC is doing everything possible to not get two teams into the BCS. After appearing to be a lock to get a second team into the big-money games for the first time, the ACC saw Miami suffer a disastrous collapse to Clemson two weeks ago and last week lost Virginia Tech from the picture in the loss to North Carolina. Georgia Tech, even if it's 11-1 going into the ACC title game, will likely have to win the championship game to get into a BCS bowl. There will be several more attractive at-large choices available. • LSU stayed at No. 9, but it's in a better position than anyone ranked outside of the top three. There would be a major discussion if Iowa and/or Cincinnati finish 12-0, but if the Tigers beat Alabama this week and run the table on the way to the SEC Championship, and avenge the earlier loss to Florida to finish 12-1, it will be hard to keep them out of Pasadena. • Keep an eye on Penn State at 11. The Nittany Lions don't have a chance to get into the national title discussion, but if they can beat Ohio State and end up 11-1, they'll get an at-large BCS bowl bid. The Big Winners: Cincinnati (8th to 5th), Oregon (10th to 8th), Utah (16th to 14th) The Big Losers: USC (5th to 12th), Virginia Tech (13th to 23rd), Notre Dame (only moving from 23rd to 22nd)

1. Florida, Score: 0.9918

With Texas moving to No. 2, the score widened and Florida is now more firmly entrenched in the top spot than last week. Last week Iowa was No. 1 according to the computers, but this week it's Florida with five of the six putting the Gators in the top spot. Only the Wolfe formula has UF at No. 2. With South Carolina's loss to Tennessee, Florida has won the East and is in the SEC Championship, but that's hardly the team's overall goal. Predicted wins: Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, FIU, Florida State, SEC Championship Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 13-0 Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Toughest remaining tests: at South Carolina, Florida State, SEC Championship

2. Texas, Score: 0.9227

After blowing away Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Texas moved up into the No. 2 spot and is now more comfortable than ever in the national title chase. The computers vary on their respect, with Sagarin still not showing much of a belief in the 'Horns, ranking them ninth, but it's better than last week, when they were a ridiculous 14th. The question at this point is whether Texas would play for the national title with one loss, but that's up to the humans. If Texas wants to play for the national title, all it has to do is win five more games as a double-digit favorite in each. Predicted wins: UCF, at Baylor, Kansas, at Texas A&M, Big 12 Championship Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 13-0 Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Toughest remaining tests: at Texas A&M

3 . Alabama, Score: 0.9166

The move down from 3 to 2 doesn't matter. The computers actually moved the Tide up from 5 to a tie at No. 3 with Texas, and, of course, the spot in the national title is assured by winning out. There's a huge gap between 'Bama and Iowa, and there's absolutely no chance whatsoever of moving down without a loss. Predicted wins: LSU, at Mississippi State, Chattanooga, at Auburn Predicted losses: SEC Championship Predicted final record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest remaining tests: LSU, at Auburn

4. Iowa, Score: 0.8407

Even with the near-disaster of a performance against Indiana, Iowa stayed firm at No. 4 and actually moved up a bit in its overall score. As coach Kirk Ferentz put it last week after being ranked No. 1 by the wires and buttons, the computers don't have eyes, but the humans do, and they still chose to boost the Hawkeyes up in both polls. The computers moved them down to No. 2, but if they beat Ohio State and end up running the table, they'll likely finish No. 3 and be just barely on the outside looking in. Predicted wins: Northwestern, Minnesota Predicted losses: at Ohio State Predicted final record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Rose Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Ohio State

5. Cincinnati, Score: 0.8033

After what seemed like a devastating drop last week, Cincinnati moved up to No. 5 and in a position to challenge for a BCS Championship slot with several big breaks. But now the tough part of the schedule kicks in and the bull's-eye is squarely on the team's back. National title talk is nice, but winning the Big East title and getting an automatic bid is nothing to dismiss. The computers are showing more and more respect, and the Harris Poll has the Bearcats ahead of Iowa and TCU. Predicted wins: Connecticut, West Virginia, Illinois Predicted losses: at Pitt Predicted final record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest remaining tests: Connecticut, West Virginia

6. TCU, Score: 0.8008

TCU realistically has no chance of getting into the top two and into the BCS Championship, so the goal is to stay ahead of Boise State and get an automatic bid into one of the big games. That will happen only by keeping the momentum going, and there's a chance to move into the top five in the coming weeks with a nice game against Utah ahead and with Cincinnati leading by a paper-thin margin. As long as the wins keep coming, Boise State will stay a step behind the Horned Frogs in the race. Predicted wins: at San Diego State, Utah, at Wyoming, New Mexico Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 12-0 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest remaining tests: Utah, at Wyoming

7. Boise State, Score: 0.7863

Boise State needs help, and lots of it. The Oregon win over USC should've done something for the overall score, but it didn't. In fact, the margin between the Broncos and TCU widened. The BCS Championship is out of the question at this point, and it's going to take a TCU loss to get into the BCS. None of the BCS bowls is doing jumping jacks over the idea of getting Boise State over a team such as Penn State or USC, and if Notre Dame is in range, forget about it. Predicted wins: at Louisiana Tech, Idaho, at Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico State Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 12-0 Predicted bowl: Poinsettia Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Louisiana Tech, Nevada

8. Oregon, Score: 0.7651

Oregon might be playing better than Boise State right now, and it might be playing better than anyone else in America, but the opening loss on the blue turf in Boise will be an anchor for the rest of the season. The humans boosted the ranking, but the computers actually moved the Ducks down from sixth to seventh. There are more chances for decent wins ahead playing four teams that will likely end up in bowls. Oregon is on the fast track to the Rose Bowl, and with Arizona, the No. 2 Pac-10 team, facing a tough schedule ahead, it's going to take a major collapse for Oregon to not be in Pasadena. Predicted wins: at Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon State Predicted losses: At Arizona Predicted final record: 10-2 Predicted bowl: Rose Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Stanford, at Arizona

9. LSU, Score: 0.7127

The No. 9 ranking doesn't really matter. If LSU beats Alabama this week, it'll be in the discussion for the national title. If the wins follow against Ole Miss and Arkansas, along with the layup against Louisiana Tech, and the Tigers are 11-1 going into the SEC Championship against Florida, a spot in the BCS Championship will probably be on the line. Good luck convincing America a one-loss LSU team that beat the Tide and the Gators should be out and Iowa should be in. Predicted wins: Louisiana Tech, at Ole Miss, Arkansas Predicted losses: at Alabama Predicted final record: 10-2 Predicted bowl: Capital One Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Alabama, at Ole Miss

10. Georgia Tech, Score: 0.6287

The Yellow Jackets struggled with Vanderbilt but still moved up into the top 10. The steps are slow, but if they can keep on winning and just get to the ACC Championship, there's a chance to potentially get an at-large BCS bid even with a loss in the title game. That's unlikely, but there's a chance. It probably would take a big move up into the top six of the human polls to make it happen, but Tech will likely need to win the ACC title and go to the Orange Bowl to be in. Predicted wins: Wake Forest, at Duke, Georgia, ACC Championship Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: Orange Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Duke, Georgia

In range

11. Penn State, Score: 0.6166 12. USC, Score: 0.5336 13. Pitt, Score: 0.4921 14. Utah, Score: 0.4226 15. Houston, Score: 0.4209 16. Ohio State, Score: 0.3784 17. Miami, Score: 0.3707 18. Arizona, Score: 0.2589 19. Oklahoma State, Score: 0.2179 20. California, Score: 0.2095
Tagged: Syracuse, Texas, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Houston, Penn State, Utah, Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State, Ohio, Arizona, Arizona State, California, Alabama, Mississippi State, Washington State, LSU, Auburn, USC, Oregon, Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, Nevada, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Louisiana Tech, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Virginia Tech

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