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Soon we could be seeing shuffling in BCS

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Pete Fiutak

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Updated Nov 22, 2009 8:57 PM ET
     
 
Thanks to Florida (vs. FIU) and Alabama (Chattanooga) pushing themselves late in the year, Texas having no problems on Senior Day against a dead Kansas team, TCU getting to blast away on Wyoming, Cincinnati off, Boise State facing Utah State and Georgia Tech off, the top teams have stayed the same for yet another week. But the fireworks should be coming soon. With Cincinnati facing Pitt in a few weeks and Illinois this week, Texas getting to prove itself against Texas A&M, Alabama going to Auburn and Boise State getting to face the Nevada rushing juggernaut, there should be some movement and shuffling soon. Overall, though, the BCS is in a holding pattern with the wild changes, at least in the national title chase, not likely to come without a few major upsets. It's the same as it has been over the last several weeks; it should be the Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas for the national title unless an asteroid hits. The more interesting race is for the at-large BCS slots. At the moment, the locks are Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Texas (even if it loses the final two games to Texas A&M and Nebraska), the Georgia Tech/Clemson winner, the Pitt/Cincinnati winner, the Oregon State/Oregon winner and either TCU or Boise State. And then the dogfight begins, especially if Clemson beats Georgia Tech and if Nebraska beats Texas. Oklahoma State is 12th in the latest rankings and still has a date at Oklahoma to get to 10-2 to potentially give the Big 12 two teams in the BCS. Iowa, at 11th, is close to being a lock thanks to a fan base that will invade whatever stadium it gets to travel to. And then the question becomes whether Cincinnati gets in if it loses to Pitt, but even at 11-1, it might be close, with Boise State certain to scream and yell if it finishes in the top five (and still behind TCU). It all seems crystal clear, right? Basically, to keep this simple, the biggest battlers for at-large spots will be Iowa, Oklahoma State (only if it beats Oklahoma) and Boise State for two possible openings; and that's if the favorites win out. In a pecking order, it's Iowa, Boise State and Oklahoma State. Let the debate begin. Other interesting notes from the Week 6 rankings:
  • The ACC became one of the bigger winners with Miami (17th) and Clemson (18th) moving up to give the league four teams in the top 18. North Carolina is 24th.
  • The Pac-10 was easily the biggest loser this week. After having four teams in the top 19 last week, Oregon moved up to eighth, but Stanford dropped like a rock from 17th to 28th, USC dropped, even though it didn't play, and Oregon State didn't move up all that high, going from 19th to 16th. So basically, the Pac-10 isn't going to get two teams in.
  • Talk about a down year for the Big 12. Nebraska is the North representative in the title game and is only up to 26th this week. The Big Winners: Oregon (11th to 8th), Iowa (13th to 11th), Clemson (23rd to 18th) The Big Losers: Stanford (17th to 28th), Wisconsin (16th to 27th), Rutgers (27th to unranked)
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    1. Florida, Score: 0.9664

    Florida is hanging around the No. 1 spot, but Alabama crept closer this week. It doesn't matter. All the Gators have to do is beat Florida State and beat the Tide and they're playing for the national title. However, if the Gators gag against the Seminoles, do they play for the BCS title game even if they beat 'Bama? That would be an interesting debate, but for now, Florida is still No. 1, even with only one computer thinking so. Predicted wins: Florida State, SEC championship Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 13-0 Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Toughest remaining tests: Florida State, SEC championship

    2. Alabama, Score: 0.9614

    The Tide is creeping closer. It doesn't matter; it all comes down to winning. If Alabama beats Auburn and Florida, it's playing for the national title. However, there might be a shot at getting the No. 1 spot in the BCS if the computers keep dropping the Gators. Last week, the computers had Florida No. 1, but this week the Tide got the top spot, according to five of the six computers. The humans still like the Gators and Longhorns more. Predicted wins: at Auburn Predicted losses: Florida (SEC championship) Predicted final record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Auburn

    3. Texas, Score: 0.9263

    The computers still don't respect the Big 12. Texas is fourth among the computers, but the humans are bigger fans. They have Florida No. 1 and Texas No. 2. That means the computers can dog the Longhorns all they want to and Texas is going to play for the national title by winning the Big 12 championship. Predicted wins: at Texas A&M, Big 12 championship Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 13-0 Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Toughest remaining tests: at Texas A&M

    4. TCU, Score: 0.8699

    The Horned Frogs aren't going to get into the top two unless Texas loses, and even then it might be a tough sell when it comes to the national championship. Cincinnati would likely leapfrog TCU if it beats Pitt convincingly, so there can't be any letting up on the gas now; blowing away New Mexico is a must. Style points will count when it comes to the humans, but the computers aren't convinced with Cincinnati third and TCU fifth. Predicted wins: New Mexico Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 12-0 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest remaining tests: None

    5. Cincinnati, Score: 0.8591

    The computers are in love, ranking the Bearcats third, and the ranking will only get better with Pitt still to deal with. Style points will matter with Illinois coming up at home, and if UC has any dreams of being in the national title mix, that has to be an ugly blowout to get the humans to start changing some votes. There's a paper-thin overall margin between Cincinnati at the five and TCU at the four, and that can be flipped-flopped very easily. Predicted wins: Illinois Predicted losses: at Pitt Predicted final record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Gator Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at Pitt

    6. Boise State, Score: 0.7834

    Boise State needs TCU to lose to be assured of a BCS spot, but it can fight hard for an at-large spot thanks to Nevada. At this point, with the Wolf Pack destroying everything in its path, the Broncos would earn a bit more national respect with a high-profile win, but there's a ceiling. The overall score keeps dropping a bit, but if they get into the top five, they'll likely end up in one of the big-money games. They deserve it. Predicted wins: Nevada, New Mexico State Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 12-0 Predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl Toughest remaining tests: Nevada

    7. Georgia Tech, Score: 0.7756

    The big question is whether Georgia Tech can get into the BCS if it loses to Clemson. If the Yellow Jackets can blow away Georgia and finish the regular season 11-1, it would be hard to keep them out if they lose to Clemson in a fight. However, if they lose to the 'Dawgs, then it's beat the Tigers or likely go to the Gator. Predicted wins: Georgia, Clemson (ACC championship) Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: Orange Bowl Toughest remaining tests: Georgia

    8. Oregon, Score: 0.6724

    The Ducks moved into the top 10 after the tough double-overtime win over Arizona, but they have to beat Oregon State and go to the Rose Bowl or they'll be out of the BCS. Boise State would love to see Oregon win out; it would help the computer part of the Broncos' score. Predicted wins: Oregon State Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 10-2 Predicted bowl: Rose Bowl Toughest remaining tests: Oregon State

    9. Pitt, Score: 0.6638

    The Panthers didn't play this week and stayed put at the nine. However, they might be in the mix for an at-large spot if they can blow away West Virginia and play Cincinnati tough in a loss. But, most likely, Pitt needs to win the final two games and earn the Big East's automatic bid to get into the BCS. Predicted wins: at West Virginia , Cincinnati Predicted losses: None Predicted final record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Orange Bowl Toughest remaining tests: at West Virginia, Cincinnati

    10. Ohio State, Score: 0.6523

    Ohio State blew away its archrival, Michigan, and it didn't matter. The Buckeyes were going to the Rose Bowl no matter what, but at 10-2, they'll look a little better going to Pasadena. Final record: 10-2 Predicted bowl: Rose Bowl

    In range

    11. Iowa, Score: 0.5245 12. Oklahoma State, Score: 0.5134 13. Penn State, Score: 0.4992 14. Virginia Tech, Score: 0.4748 15. LSU, Score: 0.3650 16. Oregon State, Score: 0.3140 17. Miami, Score: 0.2777 18. Clemson, Score: 0.2631 19. BYU, Score: 0.2623 20. USC, Score: 0.2589
    • Tagged: Texas, Illinois, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Boise State, New Mexico, Utah State, Alabama, Oregon State, Stanford, Auburn, USC, Oregon, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Rutgers, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Kansas

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