Best bets for NCAA football weekend
It was a rough weekend.
The picks went 3-3, but we lost two pretty tough games — first, we had 47.5 on the Tennessee at Florida game and the game ended up at 48.
Then LSU came out and dominated Auburn, but was content with a double-digit margin and didn't open up the playbook once it was 21-0. As a result, a complete push.
The picks are 14-11 on the season, or 56-percent winners.
With that in mind we dive once more into the games and keep waiting for the games to break completely our way.
Here we go . . .
Ole Miss +17 at Alabama
Last year, Ole Miss went to Alabama and lost by 19 points. This year, due to SEC scheduling quirks, the Rebels return to Tuscaloosa . . . only with a much better team. Already Ole Miss has two road wins on the season and Hugh Freeze and crew had a bye week to prepare for 'Bama.
I don't think the Rebels will win, but I do think they'll be pretty competitive and end up losing by 10-14.
Take the Rebs here.
LSU at Georgia -3
Remember that crying Georgia fan after the Clemson loss? If Georgia can beat LSU, the only thing seemingly between the Bulldogs and an SEC title game win that could likely catapault them into the BCS championship game is Florida in the Cocktail Party. Aaron Murray is completing 72 percent of his passes this season, and he's done that despite playing two Top 10 teams already.
This is Georgia's third Top 10 team in September. No other non-SEC team in the Top 25 plays three Top 10 teams in the entire season.
Georgia gets it done by a touchdown.
Florida - 13 at Kentucky — Take the under at 46
Here's the deal: I don't think Kentucky will be able to score on Florida.
And I also think Gators QB Tyler Murphy will have some turnover issues in his first road start of the season.
I think the score of this game will be something like 21-6 Florida, but if Kentucky comes out and gets beat 48-3, I'm done with ever betting on the Wildcats.
By the way, Florida has not lost to Kentucky since 1987.
That's 26 in a row — the same number of consecutive wins that Tennessee had before Derek Dooley lost on the road at Kentucky.
I'm just sayin' . . .
UAB at Vandy -19.5
Vandy is 3-2, but it hasn't been that impressive of a 3-2. That's why this line has dipped down beneath three touchdowns.
UAB is awful and Vandy seems looser this week than the Commodores have been all season. Which is why I think the 'Dores blow out UAB in advance of a massive home game against Missouri.
It's no secret that I think Ohio State is overrated. But I also think the Buckeyes are going to hammer Wisconsin here.
A touchdown isn't enough to get me to roll with the underdog.
Now that the picks have made you rich, here's our viewer's guide for Week 5 of the college football season . . .
1. Start off your mornings by hanging with me on FOX College Saturday on FOX Sports 1 at 10 a.m. ET.
Last week, we popped balloons.
This week, we may pop bottles.
2. South Carolina at UCF, 12 ET (ABC)
Sneaky upset alert here for South Carolina.
What do we really know about the Gamecocks at this point? They beat a mediocre North Carolina team without breaking much of a sweat, took out Vandy by 10 and lost by 11 on the road at Georgia.
So how good are they?
Meanwhile, Central Florida is 3-0 with a win at Penn State, and Vegas tells us this is a touchdown game.
How in the world did South Carolina agree to a road game here?
3. LSU at Georgia, 3:30 ET (CBS)
The unquestioned best game of the day.
Can Zach Mettenberger continue to play like he has through the first four games? If he can, then LSU just might be able to run the big-game gauntlet.
If Mettenberger can't play like he has been, then Georgia will solidify itself as a Top 5 team by winning its second top 10 game of the season.
How good is Oklahoma?
Last year, Notre Dame's road win at Oklahoma sent Irish hearts a-flutter. This year, can Oklahoma and Blake Bell return the favor and make Sooner fans start to believe that their team can make a strong title run? Any Irish fans sitting around wondering how in the world you guys lost to Michigan?
If Oklahoma comes in and dominates like we'll know how, it will be pretty clear evidence that Notre Dame isn't that good.
5. Ole Miss at Alabama, 6:30 ET (ESPN)
I already told you I like the Rebels to keep it close.
The 'Bama defense was awful against Johnny Manziel. Can Bo Wallace and Ole Miss run up yards and points as well? I think so. Can 'Bama's run game dominate? I have my doubts. Is Ole Miss ready to announce itself as a Top 10-caliber team? We'll see.
6. Texas A&M at Arkansas, 7 ET (ESPN2)
One of the oddest lines all week.
A couple of early books hung a ridiculous A&M -3 line, but then everyone went dark.
You still can't bet on this game.
It's not like Arkansas is deciding between the college football equivalent of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.
I have Washington in my Outkick Top 10. Arizona has been unchallenged in the first three weeks of the season. So how good is Arizona? Will Washington be caught looking ahead at all considering the Huskies play Stanford and Oregon the next two weeks? Or will Washington serve notice that Stanford and Oregon fans should be nervous about the Huskies?
There are lots of reasons to pay attention to this game. The fact that it should be close is just one.
8. Florida at Kentucky, 7 ET (ESPNU)
The Gators are still an enigma.
They've lost two of their top playmakers in the past week, starting QB Jeff Driskel and defensive tackle Dominique Easley, and they go on the road for the first time since an awful performance at Miami earlier in the month.
We know Florida has a great defense, but just how good is that defense? And can it carry the offense now that Driskel is out for the season?
Meanwhile, Kentucky is bad, but Vegas is telling us this game should be relatively close. Can that translate into an ugly, short game? That's what I'm betting on.
9. Wisconsin at Ohio State, 8 ET (ABC)
The Buckeyes begin their gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule. And by "gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule," I mean they play no teams currently ranked in the Top 16.
Louisville's weak schedule has gotten a ton of attention, but Ohio State's pathetic schedule has received little. It should be getting AT LEAST as much.
The Big Ten is awful.
Ohio State better dominate. If so, it starts here.
10. Stanford at Washington State, 10 ET (ESPN)
A late game worth watching. Stanford was great last weekend, but the Cardinal have a trip to Pullman before they can try to exact revenge against Washington next week.
Could Mike Leach keep this one close if Stanford isn't entirely focused? I think so. Keep this game in mind.
The first of five tough games for Lane Kiffin's Trojans.
USC is the underdog here and if the Sun Devils pull off the win, look out below.
Kiffin may get fired before the month of October is complete.