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Week 7: Best bets for NCAA football
There's no way to sugarcoat it: Last week I got run by Vegas.
The picks went 2-5. Our record is 18-17 on the year.
These are the times that try a gambling man's soul. But we shall overcome. And it starts this week. So here we go with the picks:
Mizzou +8.5 at Georgia
Mizzou is for real.
I apologize to everyone for not taking the Tigers against Vandy last week. I completely blew that game. From the moment I clicked publish, I wanted to go back and change my pick — especially once I saw what Indiana did to Penn State.
I'm not making that same mistake again.
I think Georgia will win by a field goal, but this is a game that's also worth exploring on the money line. Because it wouldn't shock me if Mizzou pulls off the outright upset. Right now you can get Mizzou for around +260 on the money line.
That's a pretty nice payday for a game the Tigers could certainly win.
Head's up, I'm betting against South Carolina each of the next three weeks as the Gamecocks go on the road: at Arkansas, at Tennessee and at Missouri.
This is another game that I'd advise you to consider playing the money line as well, because I really think Arkansas has a great shot at upsetting South Carolina outright.
Arkansas is sitting at +190 right now.
But for the weaker of heart, take Arkansas +6.
LSU wins, 24-13.
Take it to the bank.
If this line dips to -6.5, it's a complete and total home run pick.
Texas A&M -6 at Ole Miss
So we've got Texas A&M's defense playing against a vastly inferior version of the quarterback it defends every week in practice.
I like that matchup.
Plus, you know Manziel is going to be unstoppable.
The Aggies win by double digits.
By the way, funniest thing about this game so far? A 3HL listener and Outkick reader, Warren Black, tweeted this Ole Miss game plan to us: "Best game-plan for #OleMiss: Have @NativeFlash22 (Marshall Henderson) take @JManziel2 out on the town Fri night. @3HL1045 @ClayTravisBGID"
Guess who favorited that tweet?
Last year, Kansas State was No. 1 in the country and Baylor beat the Wildcats, 52-24. This year Kansas State is not good, and Baylor is excellent.
And the spread is actually less than last year's margin.
No one is stopping Baylor.
Take Baylor, big.
Sometimes lines are just too simple. Washington could have easily won at Stanford last week. This week the Huskies get Oregon at home, plus more than two touchdowns. It might be pure insanity, but I'm taking the Huskies here.
OK, time for Saturday's viewer guide:
1. Start your day off with us on FOX College Saturday.
More of y'all in Nashville, Tenn., are watching our college football pregame show on FS1 than are watching the Nashville Predators' actual hockey games.
So, doff the cap to Nashville.
But it's time for some of our other big Outkick the Coverage markets to give Nashville a run. At least flip over and check us out while you're watching "Gameday." After all, I am the sexiest/only bearded man on sports television in the mornings.
2. Mizzou at Georgia, 12 ET, ESPN
An early kickoff.
So by the time the CBS SEC game kicks off, Mizzou could be the leader in the SEC East clubhouse.
I don't think Mizzou will win, but it could.
Can Aaron Murray will his depleted offense to another victory? We shall see.
Has anyone even considered what would happen if Mack Brown and Texas actually win this game?
I mean, Oklahoma's good, but are they really that much better than Texas?
So far Oklahoma beat West Virginia by nine and TCU by three. Both of those games were at home.
Call it insanity, but I think this game will be close.
If Mack Brown wins this game, is he back in 2014?
4. South Carolina at Arkansas, 12:21 ET, ESPN GamePlan
I've already called for Arkansas to pull off the underdog upset.
It's an early start, but keep an eye on this game.
5. Florida at LSU, 3:30 ET, CBS
The winner of this game will cement itself as a bona fide Top 10 team.
If Florida wins at LSU, we'll have to re-examine that loss on the road at Miami. Maybe it really was as flukish as it appeared. I mean, Florida gave up fewer than 70 yards of offense in the final three quarters while turning the ball over five times at Miami.
Does anyone really think the Hurricanes are actually better than Florida?
Meanwhile, if LSU takes down the Gators, then we're talking about a 6-1 Tiger team that is already halfway done with its schedule and still has two bye weeks to get rested up for the stretch run that will define its season: at Ole Miss, at Alabama and then at home against Texas A&M.
I think LSU wins by double digits.
6. Baylor at Kansas State, 3:30 ET, FOX
Take a gander at Baylor if you haven't already.
Remember that Baylor's run started last year in this game against Kansas State. In 2012, the Wildcats were undefeated and rolled into Waco to take on a 4-5 Baylor team. By the time they left, Baylor had hung 52 on the Wildcats and notched a 28-point win.
Something similar is coming again.
Look out, Kansas State: Baylor is going to run all over you.
7. Oregon at Washington, 4 ET, FOX Sports 1
The game of the day is on FS1 this week.
Keith Price and Washington outplayed Stanford in every facet of the game last week except for special teams. Oregon hasn't been tested by a decent team all year. This week, the Ducks get tested. I think Oregon wins, but it's going to be a tight one.
8. Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 8:30 ET, ESPN
By far the best game of the evening is down in Oxford. Buckle up for the Johnny Manziel show.