Spinning my wheels: The season premiere

It’s time to get ready for the glory that is the Great American Race, the Daytona 500. We won’t have the global pageantry of the Super Bowl, but there are concerts and a myriad of events that celebrate the sport’s rich history and its stars.

Will the Daytona 500 signal the rebirth of one of the sport’s most popular drivers of all time? Can Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rediscover his past magic and make a push for Hendrick?

Track Info

Daytona International is one of two tracks at which the cars are equipped with restrictor plates. These devices limit the motor’s power output, thereby slowing both the acceleration and top achievable speeds. They’re included at these particular venues as a safety precaution. Of course, the inability to push the engine harder keeps cars bunched up and creates other safety hazards that at times wipe out large portions of the field.

The trickiest part of the track for drivers to navigate is heading off the second turn and into the backstretch. The driver needs to work the steering wheel and keep as much downforce as possible, lest they catch air and spin into the wall or the oncoming field.

History

Eight drivers in the history of this race have captured the checkered flag multiple times. Richard Petty leads the way with seven career victories, while Jeff Gordon paces all active drivers with three wins. Interestingly, Dale Earnhardt, Sr. completed 19 Daytona 500s before finally winning the event in 1998. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. followed his father with a win in 2004.

The Daytona 500 is a race typically won from the front of the pack. Matt Kenseth’s dramatic 38-position run-up to victory in 2009 was only the sixth time a driver won the event from a starting position higher than 10th. However, it’s happened five times in the past nine years, as Gordon and Michael Waltrip accomplished the feat in 2005 and 2001, respectively. Ward Burton did so in 2002.

One thing’s for certain: When the concerts go silent and we set to racing, NASCAR fans and fantasy participants will be treated to a spectacular show and a fantastic finish. The margin of victory in these races is consistently narrow, to say the least.

The Contenders

Mark Martin

After two years of running shortened seasons, Martin returned behind the wheel as a full-time driver for Hendrick Motorsports. He meshed with his pit crew and the powerhouse Hendrick name to charge to second in the point standings.

Now, he’ll try to do something he’s never achieved. He’ll race from the pole and try to capture the first victory of his Daytona career. Seriously, he’s never won at Daytona International Speedway in 49 career starts.

In the past four years here, he’s posted the 15th-best running position (18.06) with a 20.4-position average finish. Shake off those stats. The pole-sitter’s primed to start the season with a big run after coming so close to glory last year.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Martin won the pole, but his teammate’s garnering headlines this week after qualifying second for the Daytona 500. Could this front row starting position be the thing that jumpstarts Earnhardt back to the upper tier?

Junior was once hailed as the king of the restrictor plate race. Upon joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, he reclaimed his place among the heroes at this track.

He raced to top-10 finishes in both Daytona races, including a phenomenal ninth-place finish in the Daytona 500 after securing the third qualifying slot. He then ran 27th and 36th last year to bring him back to the pack. He owns 11 top 10s in his 20 career Daytona starts and has won twice with six top-five finishes during his career.

My gut says he and his team will build off the strong qualifying slot and put the misery of 2009 in the rearview mirror.

Kevin Harvick

Harvick opened the 2009 campaign with a tremendous victory, charging from the end of the field to win the Budweiser Shootout. It was reminiscent of his 2007 Daytona 500 win, a race in which he charged from a 34th-position qualifying slot to claim victory.

Alas, he’d go on to produce only nine top-10 finishes during the regular season. I’m expecting him to reset things and get back into the mix this season. He’s raced to four top-15 finishes in his past five Daytona starts, including a win and a second. Taken further, he owns six top 10s and 11 top 15s in his 17 career Daytona starts.

Jeff Gordon

Gordon put a difficult 2008 season behind him quickly and challenged teammates Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin for a slot at the top of the pack for much of the 2009 campaign. He’s ready to start another Chase run, although questions about his back persist. After watching him in 2009, I’m not jumping on that bandwagon. I have no reason to believe he won’t be a weekly challenger once again.

He’s certainly made his mark on Daytona history, having produced six wins and 20 top-15 charges during his illustrious career. Yes, he’s finished 30th or worse in three of his past four Daytona starts. However, he’s also averaged a brilliant 12.4-position running slot in the past four years.

Tony Stewart

Stewart silenced a lot of his critics with a phenomenal first season as driver-owner in 2009. He routinely ran at the top of the pack and charged into the Chase alongside teammate Ryan Newman. Now, he looks to elevate his game to another level.

He’s a good bet to get things headed in the right direction this week at Daytona, where “Smoke” has produced three top 10s in his past four starts. He won here last summer after surprising the racing world with an eighth-place run in the opener. He’s generated 10 top-10 finishes in his past 14 Daytona starts, including three wins.

Kurt Busch

The former series champion (it seems so long ago given Jimmie Johnson’s dominance) posted a tremendous 2009 campaign and tied his career mark with 21 top-10 finishes.

Look for his good fortune to continue as the 2010 campaign begins. Busch has generated five top 10s and four top fives in his past six Daytona starts. He owns the sixth-best average running position here in the past four years (14.8) with a 14.5-position average finish. He’s definitely worthy of a start this week.

Jimmie Johnson

Johnson’s always a huge threat for a big run, regardless of what recent history at a particular track or event says. The four-time defending series champion gets set to open the defense of his title at Daytona, where his second-place run in the summer event of 2009 ended a four-race funk. He’d raced outside of the top 20 in four consecutive events prior to last summer’s charge.

Johnson owns the best average running position (10.43) here in the past four years and has raced inside the top 15 in three-quarters of all laps run during that period. Additionally, he’s generated 10 top-15 finishes in his 16 Daytona starts. Light it up. He’s set to pile it on for another title run.

Matt Kenseth

Kenseth experienced a terribly difficult 2009 season. His performance dropped off markedly, and he produced eight fewer top-10 finishes than he did in 2008, although his average finish actually improved. I’m optimistic he starts 2010 with a strong run at Daytona.

The former series champion’s been a fairly consistent performer here, having produced five top 10s and a 15th-place finish in the past eight Daytona runs. He’s generated the fifth-best average running slot in the past four years (13.5) while racing inside the top 15 in 72.6 percent of all laps run.

Clint Bowyer

Bowyer’s established himself as one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit. His year-to-year statistics in the past three seasons are remarkably similar (16, 17 and 17 top-10 finishes). He’s completed all but one race in the past three years.

That’s an absolutely frightening statistic. He’s a solid performer historically at Daytona, having raced to five top 10s in his eight career starts at the historic track. He owns the 12th-best average running slot (16.7) in the past four years with a 13.4-position average finish. He’s a phenomenally consistent driver who somehow manages to avoid trouble. Look for him to begin another strong campaign this weekend.

Carl Edwards

Edwards failed to win last season, meaning fans and fantasy participants were cheated out of watching him perform one of his patented backflips. Can he turn things around with a big effort at Daytona?

He owns the 10th-best average running slot here the past four years (16.3) while racing inside the top 15 in 59 percent of all laps run. He’s earned three top-five finishes in his 10 career starts at the track (four top 15s). Just keep in mind all three of those top-tier runs came in the summer events, as he’s never finished better than 12th in the Daytona 500. He’s a borderline roster candidate this weekend.

Martin Truex, Jr.

Truex had just posted back-to-back tremendous campaigns and looked ready to become a regular contributor to fantasy lineups last season. Alas, he regressed horribly in 2009, registering just six top 10s with five DNFs (22nd-position average finish).

He’s a horribly difficult option for fantasy owners this week at Daytona, as he’s finished 17th or better in four of his nine Daytona starts, but has yet to crack the top 10. By way of contrast, he’s also raced 20th or worse in his other five starts. In the past four years, he’s averaged a 19th-position running slot and 21.6-position finish.

Kyle Busch

Busch struggled down the stretch to negate a ridiculously dominant start to the 2008 season. Those struggles carried over to 2009, where he generated eight fewer top 10s.

Still, I can’t look away from him this week. He owns the second-best average running slot at Daytona in the past four years (10.92) and has raced inside the top 15 more than any other driver on the circuit (77.4 percent). He’s generated four top-five finishes in his 10 career starts at the track (five top 15s) and should challenge the leaders this week. Yes, he’s run 23rd or worse on five occasions with two accidents, but I’m still behind him for a big run this weekend.

Quick Hits

Jeff Burton

Burton would like to just forget the struggles of the 2009 season. The normally consistent and effective veteran driver just couldn’t find the mark last year, and Daytona doesn’t offer much promise for a new day to dawn.

Few times during a season will you see him on “do not start” lists. The Daytona 500 is one of those events. He’s generated only eight top 10s in 32 career starts at the track (15 top 15s). In the past four years, he’s averaged a strong 15.43-position running slot, good for ninth on the circuit. However, he’s registered only a 20th-position finish. He’s always a solid play, but this isn’t a track at which he’s excelled.

Kasey Kahne

Kahne’s one of our favorite drivers for the season opener. He’s been among the top performers here in recent years, having produced four top 10s and a 15th-place run in his past six starts. He’s generated seven top-15 finishes in 12 career Daytona starts with five runs outside of the top 20.

As such, there’s some risk inherent to his selection, a truism we’ll revisit with Kahne throughout the season. Still, it’s hard to argue with his recent success at the track.

Greg Biffle

Biffle won the second race he entered at Daytona, but he’s been an infrequent visitor to the upper tier in his career, having generated only four top-12 finishes in his 14 career starts at the track.

Those positive performances have been offset by nine charges to 20th place or worse. In fact, he’s raced better than 18th just twice in his past 10 Daytona starts. We still love him on the “Fantasy FIX,” but we’ll curb our enthusiasm this week.

Ryan Newman

Newman produced a tremendous first season under the Stewart-Haas banner and completed a charge into the Chase (he finished ninth). What can he do for an encore?

Well, he’s a high-risk, high-reward proposition at Daytona, where he’s seen two starts ended early because of accidents and one because of engine failure. He’s also finished 20th or worse in nine of his 16 Daytona runs.

Those negatives overwhelm his status as a past champion and owner of three top-10 finishes. He’s averaged a strong 16.4-position running slot, but his victory in the 2008 Daytona 500 helps to boost the averages. I’ll hold him back for another run.

Brian Vickers

Vickers posted the best season of his career with the No. 83 Red Bull Racing team in 2009. In just three seasons, this team’s become a weekly contender, and I’m intrigued to watch him run this weekend.

He’s appeared in 11 Daytona runs (he didn’t qualify for the 2007 Daytona 500) and has charged to five top-15 finishes. His run to seventh in the second Daytona run last year marked his first top-10 finish since 2006. However, he’s charged into the top 12 in three of his past four starts. He owns the 17th-best average running slot at Daytona in the past four years (18.5-position average position).

Juan Pablo Montoya

Montoya finally broke through the pack and became a weekly contender in the Sprint Cup Series last season. He finished eighth in the season-ending point standings on the strength of 18 top 10s and a 14th-position average finish. One of the key starting points to his breakthrough campaign was his growth at Daytona.

Following a rough four-race introduction to Daytona that included three finishes outside of the top 30, Montoya generated two top-15 finishes in 2009. He earned his first Daytona top-10 finish in the second Daytona run last season. His tremendous 2009 season helps us forget those dismal first Daytona runs and his horrid career averages here (25.6-position average running slot and 24th-position finish).

Longshots

Jamie McMurray

The No. 1 Earnhardt Ganassi Chevy is one of the most intriguing offseason movers. McMurray switched squads following a difficult final season for Roush-Fenway.

As intrigued as I am about his prospects for 2010, he’s a mighty difficult proposition at Daytona. He’s raced 26th or worse in 10 of his 14 career starts at the track, although he did win the summer race in 2007. He’s a popular sleeper option, but you’re rolling the dice in the season’s first event.

Denny Hamlin

It’s not often you’ll see Hamlin listed among the “longshot” section of the analysis. His placement here has nothing to do with his ACL injury. Put bluntly, Daytona International Speedway has not been his friend. Hamlin’s completed one top-10 finish in eight career starts at the track, his only finish better than 17th.

In fact, he’s raced 26th or worse in four of his other seven starts. In the past four years at Daytona, he’s averaged a terrible 23.8-position finish despite his solid 16.97-position running slot. Save your starts.

David Reutimann

Reutimann was one of the breakthrough stars of the 2009 season, registering 10 top 10s and averaging a tremendous 16th-position finish. I’m intrigued to see what type of effort he brings to Daytona this weekend. He’s produced three solid efforts (12th, 18th, 21st) in six career starts at the track.

His other three efforts were outright disasters (26th, 40th, 34th-place). Taken further, he owns the worst average running slot (26.94) and fewest laps run inside the top 15 (10 percent) on the circuit the past four years. He represents a true longshot option this weekend despite his 2009 performance.