Fallen stars: Downgrade on draft day

Some fantasy players are just money in the bank.

Every year, as draft day approaches, you know they’ll be first or second-round picks. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard … you know who they are.

Unfortunately, everyone reaches the end of the road sometime.

Below are nine players who’ve been among the top fantasy studs at their respective positions in recent years, but have dropped off at least a notch or two since.

If your fellow owners are blinded by the past glory of any of these guys, consider their wasted draft picks to be your good fortune.

(Note: All 2009 ADPs are from Mock Draft Central.)

Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
(2009 ADP: 13, first at position)

Johan’s been the consensus No. 1 starter in fantasy drafts since 2005, but that streak is about to end. It’s not like we should be ready to give up on him because of one injury-plagued season (sore back, bone chips in elbow), but he’s too risky to draft as a no-doubt ace in 2010. His fly ball percentage is a red flag – it jumped from 36.4 percent to 47.5 percent - and if that continues it means he’ll give up more home runs, even in Citi Field.

Also, his strikeout rate was below eight per nine innings for the second straight year after being above nine his entire career before that. I bet the Mets are really happy he has four years and $93 million left on his contract. I’ve got Santana 11th among starters, which still makes him an SP1 in mixed leagues, albeit a low-end one. I have a feeling he’ll be lower next season.

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs
(2009 ADP: 15, third at position)

Two straight seasons shortened by leg injuries for a guy you always drafted early because he was a 30-30 threat? If Soriano’s wheels are going at age 34, so is his fantasy value. I might be too pessimistic and/or hasty by ranking him 30th among outfielders, but he really fell off a cliff last year (20 HR, nine SB, .726 OPS in 117 games). I don’t trust him at all.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
(2009 ADP: 17, first at position)

Just as with Guerrero, Ortiz needs to be really good in order for you to tie up your DH slot, and he’s just not that good anymore. Yes, he made a strong rebound from his poor start in 2009, but we’re talking about a guy whose OPS has dropped from 1.066 to .877 to .794 since 2007. He’s not Superstar Big Papi anymore. He’s just nice, doughy, Good Power Big Papi. Let a Red Sox fan have him.

Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets
(2009 ADP: 18, fifth at position)

Beltran missed almost three months last season with a bone bruise in his right knee, and you need to worry when someone approaching his 33rd birthday misses time like that, especially when it’s a knee injury for a guy whose legs provide a good deal of his value. I know he batted .325 with a .915 OPS in 81 games, but you need him to do it over a full season, in a ballpark that had a first impression of hurting power numbers.

If Beltran goes .300-20-80-20, he’s not a top-20 guy anymore – he’s a reasonable facsimile of Torii Hunter or Curtis Granderson. That’s still pretty good, but not what he used to be. I’ve got Beltran at a very shaky 12th among outfielders and 39th overall.

Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox
(2009 ADP: 20, second at position)

Nooo! If only for his fantasy owners, Peavy should have vetoed his deal to the White Sox and stayed in cavernous Petco Park. He willingly left his home in a place where fly balls go to die so he could relocate to Home Run Heaven. Dammit! His anti-fantasy selfishness - along with his two consecutive injury-shortened seasons and move to the DH league - made me drop him to No. 26 on the starter list. Read this excellent article by David Golebiewski of FanGraphs if you want to get even more depressed about Peavy’s upcoming season. Stay away, stay away, stay away.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Free Agent
( 2009 ADP: 23, seventh at position)

Vlad only qualifies at DH these days. His injuries are becoming more frequent, his power is declining and he’ll be 35 in February. Even if he rebounds, it won’t be enough to make you want to tie up your DH spot by drafting him.

Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston
(2009 ADP: 26, fifth at position)

If anyone posts a comment below saying, “But Berkman always does GREAT in even-numbered years,” I might smash my head into my computer screen. He had some nagging injuries that hurt his production, and even though he could bounce back a little this season, at age 34 would you take him ahead of Joey Votto? Kevin Youkilis? Kendry Morales? I wouldn’t, and I have Berkman ranked 11th among first basemen.

Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
(2009 ADP: 29, second at position)

Good Lord, what happened to him? Martin’s power dropped off from 2007 (19 HR, 32 doubles) to 2008 (13 HR, 25 doubles), but most people figured it was a fluke, and remained blinded by a catcher with decent power who could add 20 stolen bases.

But last year … WTF?! A .250 batting average with seven homers and a .680 OPS? Did he switch bodies with Jason Kendall when nobody was looking? Nobody’s giving Martin the benefit of the doubt now, but if he hits 10 homers and steals 10 bases, he can still be your starting catcher in a mixed league, and I’ve got him 12th on my list. He just isn’t a difference maker anymore.

Maggio Ordonez, OF, Detroit
(2009 ADP: 31, 11th at position)

Ordonez was a low-end OF1 in mixed league drafts last year, and now at age 36, he’s borderline undraftable after hitting just nine home runs. With no power and no speed, you’d draft him for … his .312 career batting average? His Vince Chase-like curly locks? No and no. I think he’s a fifth outfielder in a mixed league.