by John Halpin

Studs

Grady Sizemore, Indians — Yeah, I know he batted .268 last year, but Sizemore is entering his prime at age 26. He's close to becoming a 40-40 man and he had 77 extra-base hits last season with career highs in home runs (33), RBI (90) and stolen bases (38). The sky's the limit, and 2009 is when Sizemore becomes a superduperstar.

B.J. Upton, Rays — Upton's shoulder injury sapped his power for much of 2008, and he hit a kajillion homers in October when he finally got healthy. As I wrote in the Breakouts article a while back, I'm seeing a big year ahead for Bossman Junior, along the lines of 20 home runs and 50 stolen bases. Yes, I know this might sound like a reach, but I'm going for it. Now that Chase Utley's injury has made my decision to rank Ian Kinsler ahead of him look like pure genius, I needed another limb to walk out on.

Ryan Braun, Brewers — Braun wasn't exactly as spectacular in 2008 as he was in 2007, but 37 home runs and 14 stolen bases for a second-year player is nothing to sneeze at. There's a reason the Brewers gave Braun a big contract extension — he's a stud and he's only 25. OK, that's two reasons.

Breakouts

Nick Markakis, Orioles — I covered Markakis in the Breakouts article. He's really good already, but I see a step up coming. Not a huge step, but a step nonetheless.

Justin Upton, Diamondbacks — Ditto for B.J.'s little brother. Check the oft-used A-Rod/Griffey comparison for my basic reasoning. Of course, if you e-mailed me about a fictitious minor leaguer named Murray Upton, I'd probably draft him.

Jay Bruce, Reds — Bruce was the top prospect in the minors entering 2008, and considering that he was only 21 years old, hitting 21 home runs with a .767 OPS wasn't too shabby. Look for a mini-breakout from Bruce, with somewhere around 30 homers, 90-100 RBI and an improved batting average. He's probably too talented not to improve.

Overrated

Matt Holliday, A's — I initially had Holliday ranked second among the studs at the top. Then I decided to check his home-road splits one more time. Here they are from 2006-08:

Home: .361 BA, 62 HR, 219 RBI, 199 R, 19 SB, 1.099 OPS
Road: .296 BA, 33 HR, 120 RBI, 147 E, 30 SB, .856 OPS.

Holliday will almost certainly go in the first round of your draft, and you should let someone else have him. As someone who went to 20 Rox games a season some years back, I can assure you that the Coors Effect is real, whether or not they've started using that stupid humidor. Maybe Holliday's not just what his road stats indicate, but his Coors stats have given his overall numbers an unnatural boost. Pass, pass, a thousand times, pass.

Manny Ramirez, Some Sucker — Regardless of your level of outrage about how Manny allegedly tanked on the Red Sox in 2008, he missed a combined 61 games in 2006 and 2007 due to assorted injuries and irresponsibility. He's also closing in on his 37th birthday. This guy might be the best righthanded hitter I've ever seen, but I don't want to risk that he'll decide to take a couple of weeks off in August for some ridiculous reason. I can live with consequences of him going .310-35-120 on someone else's team, because I'll sleep easier along the way.

Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals — Ludwick was outrageous in 2008 with 37 home runs, 113 RBI, 104 runs and a .966 OPS. His inclusion here is due solely to the "How the %$#! did he do that?" factor. Thirty-year-old Quadruple-A types can sometimes succeed when given opportunities, but they hardly ever become the second coming of, well, Manny Ramirez. I need to see it again, and so does our pal Derek Carty of Hardball Times.

Bouncebacks

Carlos Lee, Astros — No big news here. Just remember that before Lee's 2008 season got cut short with a thumb injury, he was one of the most consistently excellent outfielders in the game, and he had already notched 28 homers and 100 RBI by early August. He's a top-15 pick.

Alex Rios, Blue Jays — The predicted breakout for Rios didn't materialize in 2008, as his power numbers dropped across the board. But since his 47 doubles indicate that he was still hitting the ball with authority, and after seeing him hit 11 homers with an .879 OPS in 66 games after the All-Star break, I'm giving Rios a mulligan. He might get close to the 30-30 campaign we all hoped for last year.

Sleepers

Elijah Dukes, Nationals — I'm really glad I covered so many of these outfielders in the Breakouts article — adding a link here is a lot easier than coming up with my 107th joke about Dukes' arrest record. Since Dukes is lower on the radar screen than guys like Markakis and Justin Upton, I thought he'd be a better fit in this category than in the Breakouts. Hey, jail, breakouts ... nah.

(Note: The Nats have a lot of outfielders, with Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge and new arrival Josh Willingham in addition to Dukes. I think Dukes will play, but you never know.)

Delmon Young, Twins — Watch out, Jay Bruce — this could be you someday. A couple of years ago, Young was everyone's favorite prospect. Then he threw a bat at an umpire, forgot how to hit for power and made such a bad impression on the Rays' organization that they got rid of him. It's hard to think he could have sunk much lower without acting as Plaxico Burress' gun carrier at a New York nightclub.

Just remember that Young is only 23 years old and he popped seven homers after the 2008 All-Star break after hitting just three before it. He still swings at too many bad pitches, but he's also still got plenty of power-speed ability. You could take far worse late-round gambles than this if enough people in your league forget about him.

Adam Lind, Blue Jays — Lind came up from the minors early in the season, didn't hit well over the course of about a week and was sent right back down. And people say the Yankees are impatient.

When Cito Gaston got hired as the Jays' new manager and let Lind play, he responded fairly well, with nine home runs and a .755 OPS in 88 games. Lind's minor league track record suggests that he could hit 20 homers as an everyday player, and there a lot of guys with that kind of power who will get drafted higher than he will.

Youngsters

Cameron Maybin, Marlins — Maybin might not be ready yet, but since the depth chart on the Marlins' Web site currently has NOBODY in left field, he might have to play anyway. That's good for fantasy owners, since he's a power-speed threat who hit 13 home runs and stole 21 bases in 108 games at Double-A last year. Maybin might whiff 175 times if he plays every day in 2009, but who cares? Your league doesn't count strikeouts, right?

Next week we'll take a look at starting pitchers. Will we have a team name for CC Sabathia by then?