Projections: Home runs

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Let’s salute today’s heroes by projecting the amount of fireworks with their dominance.

1. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee

Analysis: Fielder struggled out of the gate in 2010 and hit just seven home runs in his first 51 games. He still finished with 32 for the season, his fourth straight season with at least 32 home runs (he hit 28 in his first full season with Milwaukee in 2006). Fielder has averaged 40.5 home runs during this four-year period on the strength of his monstrous 2007 (50) and 2009 (46) seasons. He signed a one-year deal and will be clubbing for the stars in this walk year.

2010 Home Run Total: 32
2011 Home Run Projection: 46

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis

Analysis: What else is there to say? Pujols projects to blow up the record book and will break the bank in short order. In his 10 years with the Cardinals, Pujols has averaged 40.8 home runs per season. He’s never hit fewer than 32 home runs in a season. He’s in a contract year and has been a beast when entering the season with injury questions. The only question this season is whether Pujols changes caps for 2012.

2010 Home Run Total: 42
2011 Home Run Projection: 44

3t. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston

Analysis: Following several years of dominance in San Diego, Gonzalez takes his big bat to a much friendlier ballpark. Fantasy owners are salivating over Gonzalez’s arrival to Boston. He averaged 34.3 home runs during his final four years in San Diego despite playing in the cavernous PETCO Park. Gonzalez hit a total of 47 home runs in his home park during this period. He’ll crush that number in Fenway.

2010 Home Run Total: 31
2011 Home Run Projection: 42

3t. Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
 

Analysis: If there was ever a player tailor-made for U.S. Cellular Field, it would be Dunn. Forget about his short flirtation with running, and that batting average isn’t helping anybody. Dunn mashes. He’s hit 38 or more home runs in seven consecutive seasons. The White Sox quickly scrapped the “small ball” experiment and have retooled with a veritable “Murderer’s Row” of home-run hitters. If everything breaks properly, Dunn could challenge his career high of 46 home runs set in 2004.

2010 Home Run Total: 38
2011 Home Run Projection: 42

5. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia

Analysis: Howard’s run of gargantuan home run totals came to an end in 2010. He battled an ankle injury down the stretch that sapped his power. Howard finished with 31 home runs, the lowest total of his career since becoming an everyday player. Still, he’s averaged a robust total of 45.8 home runs over the past five seasons (one per 12.74 at-bats if you include his 2005 Rookie of the Year campaign).

Chase Utley’s injury is moderately concerning to the team in terms of wins and losses, but that’s not going to sabotage Howard’s power production.

2010 Home Run Total: 31
2011 Home Run Projection: 39

6t. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit

Analysis: Cabrera’s off-the-field issues obviously cloud his value for 2010. At this time, I’ll pencil him in for his normal dominance, while we await further information and court proceedings. In seven complete major league seasons, including four full years in Florida, Cabrera has averaged 33.6 home runs. He’s a double-hitting machine who has just now entered the prime of his career. He hit a career-high 38 home runs in 2010.

2010 Home Run Total: 38
2011 Home Run Projection: 37

6t. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado
 

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Analysis: Fantasy owners’ collective interest was piqued during Gonzalez’s 89-game introduction to Colorado in 2009. He then exploded for a dominant all-around performance in 2010. Gonzalez hit 34 home runs last season, including 26 in his home park (one per 11.5 home at-bats). I don’t anticipate that he maintains his near-.400 BABIP, but the power numbers will be there.

2010 Home Run Total: 34
2011 Home Run Projection: 37

8t. Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Analysis: Pena is never clawing back to the .282 batting average he posted with Tampa Bay in 2007. That’s clearly an anomaly in the slugger’s career. He will, however, continue to send balls sailing into the night (or daytime, as it will be in Chicago). Pena has averaged 38 home runs in the past four seasons.

Bring your glove to Wrigley Field and hang out beyond the right-field seats.

2010 Home Run Total: 28
2011 Home Run Projection: 36

8t. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto

Analysis: Do you remember the old line from the Madden game? “Where’d that truck come from?”

Well, pitchers in the AL East asked themselves that question last season. Bautista emerged from nowhere to lead Major League Baseball with 54 home runs. He’d never hit more than 16 home runs in any of his six major league seasons, although he did blast 36 doubles for the Pirates in 2007. Bautista also hit 35 doubles for the Blue Jays last season.

I don’t anticipate that he disappears from the radar altogether, but fantasy owners will be thrilled with a home run total in the mid-30s.

2010 Home Run Total: 54
2011 Home Run Projection: 36

8t. Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore

Analysis: As with Pena, you need to throw the batting average out of the window when considering Reynolds. He hits the ball hard when he does make contact and pounds out extra-base hits. Reynolds averaged 34.7 home runs in his three full seasons with the Diamondbacks. I don’t anticipate much of a change coming to Camden Yards.

2010 Home Run Total: 32
2011 Home Run Projection: 36

11t. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati

Analysis: Votto is one of the most interesting players to watch on draft boards this spring and owners contemplate his three-year totals in Cincinnati. Votto had hit 49 home runs in 995 at-bats during his first two full seasons in Cincinnati before establishing a new career mark with 37 home runs last year. He’s the centerpiece of a power-laden lineup in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball. Votto’s averaged one home run per 16.2 at-bats in Great American Ballpark in the past three years.

2010 Home Run Total: 37
2011 Home Run Projection: 34

11t. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas

Analysis: What can Hamilton do for an encore? The reigning American League MVP posted a ridiculous .359 batting average with 75 extra-base hits (including 32 home runs). Hamilton had hit 32 home runs in his introduction to Texas in 2008 before struggling through an injury-ravaged 2009 campaign.

Forget the question of an encore performance. The true question facing Hamilton is whether he can stay healthy for a full campaign. Hamilton appeared in 89 games in 2009 and logged only 133 appearances during his MVP season. If he and tag-team partner Nelson Cruz stay healthy, then the sky is the limit in Arlington (where he has one home run per 16.3 at-bats).

2010 Home Run Total: 32
2011 Home Run Projection: 34

13. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

Analysis: I’m not ready to shovel dirt on Rodriguez just yet. He’s not going to play a full slate or slam upward of 40 home runs any longer, but he’s not done by a longshot. Rodriguez reported to camp in shape and, now two years removed from his hip surgery, could be in line for a bounce-back campaign. He’s hit 35, 30 and 30 home runs in the past three seasons while missing a total of 87 games.

2010 Home Run Total: 30
2011 Home Run Projection: 33

14t. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas

Analysis: Can he stay healthy? Cruz missed extensive time for the second straight season. Last year, he was beset by recurrent hamstring injuries. Still, he hit 22 home runs with 31 doubles in 399 at-bats. Cruz had produced his breakthrough season in 2009 with 33 home runs in 128 games.

There is no reason to believe that Cruz cannot push back to those 2009 heights, provided that he can stay healthy. The Texas lineup is loaded from top to bottom, with Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli entering the fray to replace departed slugger Vladimir Guerrero.

2010 Home Run Total: 22
2011 Home Run Projection: 32

14t. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

Analysis: Teixeira will drive you insane in the early part of the calendar. He’s a notoriously slow starter, but the final numbers are always impressive. Teixeira has hit 30 or more home runs in seven consecutive seasons (he averaged 35.6 home runs per season during this period) and remains fixed in the heart of the high-scoring New York lineup.

2010 Home Run Total: 33
2011 Home Run Projection: 32