Rankings preview: Second Base

At certain points in these first-look positional analysis pieces, I lament the changing of the guard.

I note the number of longtime fantasy heroes who have either recently hung up their cleats or who now cling to the last roster slot or drift from the rotation to long relief. The announcement by veteran hurler Gil Meche that he would rather retire instead of hang on, and comments by Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman referencing retirement, marks the passage of time.

I don’t have to run down that road when breaking down second basemen this year. Sure, there are a number of new players popping onto the radar, but the top of the position looks very much the same. You may re-order the players that rank first through seventh, but the arguments don’t begin until the backend of the top 10.

30. Carlos Guillen, Detroit

Guillen won’t be ready for opening day, as he recovers from a knee injury. He’s been limited to 149 games in the past two seasons, producing a total of 17 home runs and 75 RBIs in those partial seasons.

He’s worth watching in his rehabilitation efforts. Guillen was a fantasy star during the 2006 and 2007 seasons and offered five-category production. He won’t reclaim his glory on the basepaths (33 stolen bases in those two years), but he may generate solid power numbers and a middle infield (MI)-worthy batting average if healthy.

29. Orlando Hudson, San Diego

The well-traveled veteran shortstop joins his fifth major league team for the 2011 season. He’s a solid hitter (.280 lifetime batting average) who contributes to each of the standard categories, but makes for a better real player than a fantasy option. He hit six home runs with 37 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 126 games for the Twins last season.

28. Omar Infante, Florida

The veteran infielder played in his highest number of games since 2005 last season in Atlanta. He produced a career-best .321 batting average with eight home runs, 47 RBI and seven stolen bases. With every day at-bats, he’ll spray balls into the gap and offer some assistance in the batting average department (.274 career batting average), but he’s offering little else.

27. Clint Barmes, Houston

Barmes is slated to start at shortstop for the Astros after splitting time between second base and shortstop for the Rockies in 2010 (played one inning at third base). His numbers dropped markedly last year from his 2009 efforts. Barmes’ home run total dropped from 23 to eight and his stolen base total dropped from 12 to three.

26. Mark Ellis, Oakland

Ellis’ power numbers declined in 2010, and his streak of five consecutive seasons with a double-digit home run total ended. He did bat an uncharacteristic .291 last year, a full 23 points higher than his career mark.

Ellis has stolen at least seven bases in four consecutive seasons and produces a high number of doubles each season (25.3 per season over the past seven years). He has appeared in 124 games or fewer in five of the past six years.

25. Freddy Sanchez, San Francisco

Sanchez remains a solid batting average contributor (.298 batting average), but offers little else. He’s driven in 52 runs or fewer in three consecutive seasons and has registered a single season with double-digit home runs in his career (11 in 2007).

24. Danny Espinosa, Washington

Espinosa rose quickly through the ranks in his third professional season. He started the season in Class-AA and finished with a 28-game stint with the Nationals. Espinosa produced strong fantasy numbers across four categories. He batted .268 (.295 in 24 Triple-A games) with 22 home runs, 69 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 123 minor league games.

He batted .214 in his late-season call-up with 11 extra-base hits (six home runs) and 15 RBI. Espinosa struck out 30 times in his 103 major league at-bats.
 

23. Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels

Callaspo joined the Angels last season and posted pedestrian numbers (two home runs, 13 RBI with a .249 batting average). He demonstrated strong gap power in Kansas City with 41 doubles in 2009 and 19 doubles in 88 games last season before shifting to Los Angeles.

The versatile switch-hitter (third base and second base eligibility) is a career .278 batter who rarely strikes out (42 strikeouts in 562 at-bats in 2010).

22. Bill Hall, Houston

You know what to expect from Hall. He hits for great power (14 or more home runs five of the past six years) and a low average (.250 career batting average). Hall offers a few stolen bases along the way (nine in 2010) and has averaged 57.1 RBI in the past seven years.

21. Dustin Ackley, Seattle

Ackley was the Mariners’ first-round pick (second overall) in the 2009 draft and appears set to make his mark in Seattle this year. He batted .267 between Double-A and Triple-A last season with solid power (48 extra-base hits), speed (10 stolen bases) and an advanced batting eye (75 walks and 79 strikeouts).

He was named the top collegiate hitter of the past decade by an online scouting site and won countless honors during his tenure at North Carolina. Ackley batted .412 in college and appeared on the College World Series All-Tournament team three times. Ackley may take a bit of time at Triple-A Tacoma, but I don’t suspect he stays long given Seattle’s need for offense.

20. Juan Uribe, Los Angeles Dodgers

Uribe came up huge for the Giants in the 2010 post-season and now joins his third team in the NL West. He batted .248 with 24 home runs and 85 RBI for the champion Giants, the fourth 20-home run season of his career. Uribe’s 85 RBI established a new career high.

The Dodgers’ offense is one fraught with questions coming into 2011. Most of the youthful would-be heroes flailed at the plate in 2010, and the ownership issue is obviously a mess. One thing is certain. Uribe will be a free-swing who generates power while playing some combination of infield positions (he’s eligible at 2B, SS and 3B).

19. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Minnesota

Following an eight-year run in Japan with the Chiba Lotte Marines, Nishioka owns a career .293 batting average with 174 stolen bases. He shan’t offer much in the power department (55 home runs), but the high-batting average and stolen-base combination worked out pretty well for another Japanese import. Nishioka will set the table nicely for the heart of the order.

18. Neil Walker, Pittsburgh

Following a brief introduction to Pittsburgh in 2009, Walker burst onto the scene in late May of 2010. Walker batted .296 with 44 extra-base hits (12 home runs) and drove in 66 runs. Walker dominated at PNC Park, generating a batting average 61 points higher than his road mark.

The switch-hitter was Pittsburgh’s first-round selection in 2004 and represents another piece in the perennial youth movement. There’s definitely upside here. Walker achieved those lofty numbers in just 110 games, and there’s potential to translate some of those doubles into home runs as he approaches his power prime (he’s 25 right now). Forget the insignia on the cap. He can hit (one extra-base hit per 10.5 at-bats in the minor leagues).

17. Mike Aviles, Kansas City

Aviles appeared on innumerable sleeper lists in 2009 following a strong introduction to Kansas City in 2008. He would appear in only 36 games and left owners cold for the 2010 draft season. Aviles rebounded to hit .304 with eight home runs, 32 RBI and 14 stolen bases (19 attempts) in 110 games. The power numbers aren’t overwhelming, but they’re passable, and his ability to hit .300 (.298 lifetime mark) with double-digit stolen bases cannot be dismissed for a middle infielder.
 

16. Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay

Rodriguez offered decent fantasy production across four categories last season (9 home runs with 40 RBI and 13 stolen bases) in 118 games. He batted a respectable .251 despite striking out in 97 of his 343 at-bats (.350 BABIP). Rodriguez’s power numbers will be there (30 extra-base hits), and he’ll swipe bases. Receiving every day at-bats with Ben Zobrist taking up residence in right field full-time should help boost his average.

15. Chone Figgins, Seattle

Figgins experienced an absolutely horrific start to the season. He batted .211 in the first two months of the seas before rallying to hit .280 after June 1. That .280 mark fell directly in line with his .287 career mark.

Fantasy owners did ultimately get what they expected from Figgins in one aspect. He stole 42 bases in 57 attempts, his seventh straight season with at least 34 stolen bases (had 47 or more attempts in each of those seasons). Figgins won’t offer much support elsewhere. He’ll hit for a solid average (he’d batted .290 or better in four of his previous six seasons) and likely scores a few more runs than he did in 2010.

14. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay

Zobrist’s batting average fell 59 points from his 2009 breakthrough season. However, his contact rate actually improved marginally, so there’s a lot of bad luck involved in such a precipitous drop. The sizable dip in his power production can’t be explained away as easily. Zobrist hit 17 fewer home runs than he did in 2009. He did steal seven more bases.

He’s a better power hitter from the left side (produced 25 home runs in the past two years), but hits for a better batting average from the right side. I anticipate a bounce-back campaign from the versatile switch-hitter (he played six positions last year) in the power categories. I don’t anticipate the same bounce in his batting average. He’ll have a few more balls fall in this year, but I’d anticipate that he settles in the .260-.270 range. It’s still a marked improvement from his 2010 efforts. Zobrist batted .253 in his introduction to the Rays in 2008.

13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona

Johnson certainly enjoyed his change of venue in 2010 and a return to health. He took advantage of the hitter-friendly home park, batting .311 with 42 extra-base hits and 48 of his 71 RBI in Arizona. Johnson produced new career marks in each of the five standard fantasy categories overall.

His strikeout rate increased as well, but that’s hardly a concern when the power numbers follow suit. Johnson is one of the veteran anchors in a youthful Arizona lineup for 2011.

12. Brian Roberts, Baltimore

Roberts missed two-thirds of the 2010 season because of a back injury. He appeared in only five games prior to the All-Star break. Roberts produced 18 extra-base hits and only 15 RBI in his 230 at-bats, though he did steal 12 stolen bases.

Roberts had averaged 13 home runs, 64.2 RBI and 33.6 stolen bases in his five previous full seasons, and owns a strong career .283 batting average. The Orioles didn’t make big splashes in the off-season, but the additions of Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee and J.J. Hardy can’t be ignored. This is a better Baltimore lineup, and it starts with a healthy Roberts.

11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels

Kendrick may yet contend for that batting title that we anticipated several years back. In the interim, he’s become a solid component of the Angels’ offense. In his first full season, Kendrick batted .279 with 55 extra-base hits (41 doubles), 75 RBI and 14 stolen bases.

The Angeles experienced a terrible 2010 season, punctuated with an exclamation point by Kendry Morales’ freak season-ending injury. Kendrick will generate solid power numbers (perhaps a few more of those doubles translate to home runs) with a double-digit stolen base total (he’s done so in three consecutive seasons) and a strong batting average. In his five seasons (four partials) with the Angels, Kendrick has generated a composite .295 batting average.

10. Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox

Beckham’s transition to second base and rise to fantasy superstardom didn’t happen as easily as expected in 2010. He batted .196 in the first two months of the season before beginning a turnaround in June. From July 1 through August 31, Beckham batted .331, and generated seven of his nine home runs and 27 of his 49 RBI.

Those two months give me hope that Beckham takes the next step forward as the White Sox return to “big” ball (what else should I call it when everyone refers to the other style as “small?”). Owners burned by his dismal start and terrible finish (he batted .188 in 13 September games) may create a bargain opportunity by backing away from the table.

9. Aaron Hill, Toronto

Hill experienced a difficult 2010 season. He still slammed 26 home runs, but his batting average fell off a full 81 points from his 2009 efforts. Much of the drop could be attributed to a rise in his flyball rate and frankly, a chunk of bad luck. Hill’s contact rate dropped just 1.6 percent, and he’s never been a walk generator. Take the power numbers and the potential value play, as he bats in line with his .270 career mark.
 

8. Martin Prado, Atlanta

Prado posted a fantastic follow-up to his 2009 breakthrough season. He increased his home run total from 11 to 15, drove in 17 additional runs and scored 36 more runs, while matching his .307 batting average.

Prado moves to left field to accommodate the arrival of Dan Uggla. He retains second and third base eligibility this season and will be a value pick for fantasy owners in a revamped Atlanta offense.

7. Ian Kinsler, Texas

The Rangers produced a storybook season last year, although they did so without their star second baseman for much of the year. Kinsler appeared in only 103 games, yet still posted tremendous numbers. He still produced 30 extra-base hits with 45 RBI, 15 stolen bases and 73 runs scored.

The Texas lineup is back to terrorize AL West pitchers once again, bolstered by the addition of third baseman Adrian Beltre. Kinsler will provide big numbers in four categories, without question. There has been some fluctuation in his batting average (with a .253 low and .319 high), but he owns a solid .281 career mark.

6. Dan Uggla, Atlanta

Uggla finished his five-year run in Florida with the finest production. He produced career-best numbers in three of the standard categories (33 home runs, 105 RBI and .287 batting average). His batting average in 2010 was 44 points higher than his 2009 mark, but the other numbers were just a tad higher than previous totals. Uggla averaged 30.8 home runs and 93 RBI during his five-year run despite playing in one of the worst home yards for hitters.

Uggla is in his prime and will be hitting in a much better ball park alongside another youthful lineup. His addition is music to the ears of those who kept Jason Heyward this off-season or snagged Freddie Freeman in dynasty leagues.

5. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee

Many fantasy owners turned away from Weeks last season following his injury-shortened 2009 campaign (and frequent injuries in years prior). Instead, Weeks posted that fantasy season that longtime followers had anticipated for years. He appeared in 160 games and established new career marks in home runs (29), RBI (83), doubles (32) and runs (112). Weeks’ .269 batting average was his best output since 2006, when he appeared in just 95 games.

The heart of the Milwaukee lineup returns for another run, with Weeks working alongside Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and the newly re-signed Prince Fielder. Carlos Gomez will be setting the table and making things happen on the basepaths, affording Weeks ample RBI opportunities. He certainly has protection around him. Barring an injury, Weeks approaches last season’s numbers. He’s just hitting his prime.

4. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati

Just when it looked like Phillips was going to flame out following a brief appearance on the radar in Cleveland, he found new life in Cincinnati. He’s been a beast for the past five years and now stands as the veteran member of a fantastic lineup in a tremendous home park.

Phillips has averaged 21.2 home runs, 80.8 RBI, 24.2 stolen bases and 28.2 doubles in five years with the Reds. He’s a .267 career hitter, so you shan’t receive much help in that department. The main point of potential concern this year is his RBI total. Phillips plated 39 fewer runs than he did in 2009 (producing 59 RBI after having 98, 78 and 94 in the previous three years).

3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston

Pedroia posted fantastic numbers in April and June before sustaining a foot injury that ended his season (he appeared in two August games). He batted .288 with 37 extra-base hits (12 home runs), 41 RBI, nine stolen bases and an even walk-to-strikeout ratio. Pedroia was on pace to crush his previous home run total while matching previous RBI and stolen base totals.

He returns to a reloaded Boston offense, bolstered by the off-season additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. It’s a recreation of those Manny-Papi lineups that destroyed opposing pitching staffs for years.

2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia

The longtime No. 1 option slides a single spot this season, although you may just put a 1A tag on him. He’ll likely follow Cano off the draft board quickly.

A thumb injury sent Utley to the disabled list for six weeks in the heart of the season, and his power numbers waned. Utley posted his lowest power numbers (16 home runs and 65 RBI) since his first significant major league action in 2004.

I am moderately concerned about how well Ryan Howard bounces back from his year and the impact of Jayson Werth’s departure. However, it’s hard to overlook his five-year run between 2005 and 2009. Utley averaged 29.2 home runs, 39.2 doubles, 110.6 runs scored and 101.4 RBI. He’s also averaged 15 stolen bases in the past six seasons.

1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

Fantasy owners were ready to jump ship on Cano following a disappointing 2008 season. He’s rebounded brilliantly with his best seasons ever in the past two years. Cano has rapped out back-to-back 200-hit seasons with a total of 54 home runs, 194 RBI and a composite .320 batting average. Cano also ripped 89 doubles in this two-year stretch.

He’s a fantastic contact hitter who has missed a total of eight games in the past four years (657 plate appearances per season). The Yankees have a ton of questions in the pitching staff, but there’s no doubt that this offense will rank among the best once again.