AL fantasy predictions: Pierre will steal 50 bases

Welcome to the third annual edition of my predictions columns, in which I make educated guesses about fantasy stats for a player on every MLB team. The idea is for the predictions to have no better than a 50-50 chance (usually less) to be correct, with some having longer odds than others.

To gauge the success of these fearless prognostications, in 2008 I got 11 1/3 points out of 30, then followed that up with 10 1/3 points last season. For 2010, it’s 50 percent or bust, baby!

If you have predictions of your own, or just want to make fun of mine, please leave a comment at the bottom of the page.

Orioles: Mike Gonzalez will save 35 games

Fantasy analysts like me often tell you to wait on closers, because so many of them lose their jobs due to injury or ineffectiveness during the season. If you’re willing to tolerate some risk, tremendous value can be found in the late rounds of your draft. Last season, three of the top nine save guys – Heath Bell (42), Ryan Franklin (38) and David Aardsma (38) – went undrafted in many leagues. Instead of spending a high pick on someone like Mariano Rivera, it can often be better to speculate on skills late and hope for the best.

Gonzalez fits this bill perfectly. He’s a risk because of his injury history, which includes Tommy John surgery in 2007. However, he pitched pretty well as the Braves’ sometimes closer last season, posting a 2.42 ERA and striking out 90 batters in 74 1/3 innings. The K rate is no surprise, since he's whiffed an excellent 10.58 batters per nine innings in his career. He signed a two-year deal to close for the O’s, and if he stays healthy, he’ll be very, very good.

Red Sox: Jon Lester will be a serious contender for the AL Cy Young

We’re going to have to vote on the result of this somewhat vague prediction in October, since I’ll write the review of this column before the Cy is awarded, but Lester's the real deal. Despite a slow start last year, he went 15-8 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 225 strikeouts (fifth in MLB). He’s 26, and he’s about to turn into a bonafide ace. He's my No. 1 fantasy man-crush of 2010.

White Sox: Juan Pierre will steal 50 bases

Why not? Pierre averaged 54 stolen bases from 2001-07, swiped 40 in 119 games for the Dodgers in 2008 before losing his job to Manny Ramirez and stole 21 during Ramirez’s 50-game suspension last season. Now, thanks partly to Pierre’s presence, Ozzie Guillen's making noise about finally having the kind of team he’s always wanted. Heck, if he steals 70, it won’t be a surprise. I’m more confident in this prediction than any other on the list.

Indians: Grady Sizemore will have another 30-30 season

Sizemore was hurt last year. Throw it out. Forget it ever happened. At this time a year ago, we were talking about him as possibly the top overall player in fantasy, and his injuries (elbow, hernia) aren’t the type that should linger. He’s going in the third round of some early mixed league drafts, and he’ll be a HUGE value there. Huge, I tell you.

Tigers: Max Scherzer will strike out 200 batters

I’m in, folks. Going from the AAAA National League to the American League is bound to hurt any pitcher a bit. But after a solid first full season with the D-Backs last season (9-11, 4.12 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 174 K in 170 1/3 IP), the 25-year-old Scherzer's ready to take the next step. His stuff is electric, and if he’s able to show it off in 33 or 34 starts, he’ll be a top-10 strikeout guy.

Royals: Billy Butler will hit 30 home runs

Butler won’t turn 24 until April 18, and he’s got a very bright future. He hit .301 with 21 homers and 51 doubles last season, and the 2010 edition of Baseball Prospectus points out that only five players Butler’s age or younger have ever hit 20 homers with 50 doubles: Hank Greenberg, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore and Miguel Cabrera. That’s pretty good company. Butler’s ready to start launching some more of those doubles into the Kauffman Stadium fountains.

Angels: Scott Kazmir will win 15 games with an ERA below 3.75

Kazmir pitched well after being traded to the Angels last season, and even though his overall ERA was 4.89, we’re talking about a 26-year-old southpaw with really good stuff and a couple of very good seasons already under his belt. Check his numbers from 2006 and 2007 when you get a chance – wow.

There are certainly some negatives with Kazmir, as he’s struggled with injuries the last two seasons, and he’s always had issues with his control. But he’s going as a fourth starter right now at Mock Draft Central, and gambling on him at a spot like that could have a nice payoff.

Twins: J.J. Hardy will hit 20 home runs

No, we don’t know how the Twins’ new park will play, other than snowy and cold since some genius decided a ballpark in Minneapolis wouldn’t need a roof in April and September (God forbid they should make the playoffs). Still, Hardy’s drop to 11 homers last year after hitting 50 combined in 2007-08 made no sense. He’s 27 years old, and he didn’t have any bad injuries. His 2009 just screams “FLUKE!” Bet on a bounceback.

Yankees: Brett Gardner will steal 35 bases

Left field is crowded in the Bronx, with Gardner, Randy Winn and Marcus Thames in the mix for playing time. The Yanks like Gardner’s defense, and he’s not a bad little hitter. Chances are good he’ll be the lefthanded part of a platoon (read: plays more) with either Winn or Thames and come in as a late-game defensive replacement often when he doesn’t start. He stole 26 bases last year while getting 284 plate appearances, and he should get quite a bit more playing time than that. Only seven major leaguers stole more than 35 bases last season, so reaching that threshold wouldn’t be too shabby.

A’s: Chris Carter will be the everyday first baseman by the All-Star break

Daric Barton finally started to play well for the A’s late last season, but unless he starts to show more power than Yuniesky Betancourt, they’re not going to keep sending them out there every day. Besides, Carter hit 91 homers in 399 games over his last three minor-league seasons. Carter only spent a few weeks in Triple-A last year, but he should be ready to bring his prodigious power to Oakland in a couple of months.

Mariners: David Aardsma will lose his job at some point

Aardsma came out of nowhere to save 38 games last year, and as good as he looked, there are warning signs. The first was his always-shaky control, which improved to a point where he walked 34 batters in 71 1/3 innings. He also allows tons of fly balls, and even though he plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark with a great outfield defense, it’s hard to imagine he’ll only give up four homers again this season.

Look, if the manager says a guy's the closer, then he is until he falls on his face. With that said, drafting Aardsma would come with more risk than his 2009 save total and 2.52 ERA would lead you to believe. Be careful.

Rays: Jason Bartlett will hit fewer than 10 home runs

I didn’t think Bartlett would hit 10 homers last year, and that was when he already had seven. He's 30 years old and hit 14 of his 25 career homers in one season. Maybe you think he took his Flintstones chewable vitamins and lifted weights and ate right and learned how to hit for more power. I’ll go with “fluke” for $100, Alex.

Rangers: Josh Hamilton will play fewer than 120 games

There are obviously unusual reasons why Hamilton’s career was interrupted more than a few times. With that said, he's played more than 101 games ONCE in nine professional seasons. At age 29, why should we expect his body to regularly withstand the rigors of a full season? He’s freakishly talented and could probably hit 25 homers while missing 40 games, but he’s going as the 14th outfielder at Mock Draft Central, and I don’t want any part of him there. Too risky.

Blue Jays: Edwin Encarnacion will hit 25 home runs

Ladies and gentlemen, meet the pick most likely to fall on its face, just like the infamous “ Wily Mo Pena will hit 35 home runs” flop in 2008. I’m not sure why I’m so intrigued with Encarnacion. Maybe it’s the 26 homers he hit for the Reds in 2008. Maybe it’s the fact that those 26 homers spurred me to place a $15 FAAB bid on him in my AL keeper league last summer, which means I’m stuck with him this year. He’s only 27, and it’s not like his talent has vanished. Take a chance, will ya?