NL fantasy predictions: Upton to have huge year

With the American League predictions done, let’s move to the Senior Circuit. I think I was a little conservative on the AL side, so let’s get a little bit more daring, OK?

Braves: Billy Wagner will save 35 games

Let’s lead off the National League segment just like the AL – with a recent Tommy John alumnus. Wagner's being drafted as a second-tier closer right now, but he’s got a good chance to produce like a first-tier one. During his brief return with the Mets and Red Sox at the end of last season, he whiffed 26 batters in 15 2/3 innings. Go get him.

Diamondbacks: Justin Upton will hit 35 home runs and steal 25 bases

Believe the hype.

P.S. While I think D-Backs closer Chad Qualls also has a good chance to save 35 games, I wasn’t going with two closers in a row. I’d have lost you with a stunt like that.

Reds: Jay Bruce will hit 35 home runs

Bruce hit 22 dingers in 108 games last year, so this one isn’t so outlandish. With that said, look for the kind of bounceback season from Bruce that makes people remember why he was the game’s top prospect just two years ago. His batting average – killed by a ridiculously unlucky .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last year – won’t be so bad again, either.

(Yes, I know he was awful against lefties last year, but he’s 23 years old. Give the guy a break.)

Cubs: Derrek Lee will hit fewer than 25 home runs

Lee exploded for 35 homers last season after combining for 42 in 2007-08. That sounds great, but look a little deeper and you’ll start to have questions. His flyball rate strangely jumped to a career high of 45.7 percent, and his HR/FB rate was 17.9 percent – easily his highest since 2005 and probably hard to sustain. He’s 34 years old and missed 21 games last season because of assorted injuries. Lee’s a good hitter, but don’t draft him expecting a repeat of '09.

Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez will win 20 games

I told you we needed to be more daring! Nobody won 20 games last season – how’s that for going out on a limb? Seriously, wins are hard to predict, so some of my stathead colleagues might snicker at this one, and that’s fine. Jimenez is a terrific young pitcher with the best possible recipe for success at Coors Field (groundballs and strikeouts). He’s on a good, improving young team that should give him solid run support and good infield defense. He threw 218 innings last season, tied for sixth in the majors with 24 quality starts, and pitched at least six innings in 28 of his final 29 starts. He's likely to take another step toward fantasy ace status this season, and there are reasons to think he can rack up a high win total. Will he get to 20? Let’s find out.

Marlins: Ricky Nolasco’s ERA will be below 3.50

Nolasco’s ERA was 5.06 last season, but don’t be alarmed. Some bad luck with BABIP (.335) and runners left on base (a very low 61 percent) made the 27-year-old righty look worse than he was. We know that strikeout-to-walk ratio is a great way to predict a pitcher’s future performance, and his was an excellent 195/44 last year – almost exactly the same as his 186/42 in 2008 - when his ERA was 3.52. The only problem is that he’s being drafted as a low-end SP2 over at Mock Draft Central right now, so his bad luck in 2009 is no secret. Still, you should draft him without worry.

Astros: Nobody will save more than 20 games

Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon are competing for the closer’s job, and the odds seem pretty good that whoever gets the job out of spring training will lose it at some point. Lyon signed a three-year, $15 million contract during the offseason, but he had minor shoulder surgery, doesn’t strike out too many people and had a career-high walk rate (by quite a bit). The 30-year-old Lindstrom throws 100 mph fastballs sometimes, but doesn’t strike out as many batters as you’d think (7.55 K/9 in his career), but permits plenty of walks. Is there an Option C?

Dodgers: Chad Billingsley’s ERA will be closer to 3.14 (his ERA in 2008) than 4.03 (2009)

Billingsley’s strikeout rate dipped a little last year, and he still walks too many batters, but he’s only 25, has good stuff and has a couple of solid seasons under his belt already. He’ll bounce back, and you could get him at a decent value in your draft (he’s 24th in my starter rankings).

Brewers: Corey Hart will have another 20-20 season

After reaching the 20-20 mark in 2007 and 2008, Hart fell off to 12 homers and 11 steals in 115 games last season, missing some time due to an appendectomy and a couple of broken fingers. He’s no superstar, but with good health he should return to form and be a strong fourth outfielder in mixed leagues (he’s No. 39 in my outfield rankings).

Note: Hart reportedly lost 22 pounds during the offseason by using the Insanity Workout, which is a home-based program that uses DVDs. Is he not making enough money to hire a personal trainer? Hopefully, his recent arbitration win ($4.8 million for 2010) will help out his bank account.

Mets: Jason Bay will hit 30 home runs

That’s my response to the hysteria about CitiField being a disaster for hitters. Let’s give it more than one subpar season by one guy ( David Wright) before we make the place out to be the Grand Canyon, OK?

Phillies: Jayson Werth will be a 30-20 man again

Last year wasn’t a fluke, folks. Werth's a terrific offensive player, with patience, power and speed. He’s a top-10 fantasy outfielder and should be drafted as such.

Pirates: Lastings Milledge will hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases

Milledge’s problems have always been about his attitude – real or perceived – and not about his talent. He’s only 25 years old and less than two years removed from a 14-homer, 24-steal campaign with the Nationals. Last season, he got demoted early, broke a finger trying to bunt in the minors, got traded … he was just star-crossed. I’d be happy to have him as a fifth outfielder in a mixed league.

Padres: Everth Cabrera will steal 40 bases

Cabrera's a speedy little guy with a decent walk rate, and he stole 25 bases in 103 games during his rookie season with the Pads last year. Oh, he also stole SEVENTY THREE bases in A-ball in 2008. As long as he hits enough to keep his job, he’ll be a nice source of middle infield speed available late in your mixed league draft. He's currently going in the 20th round at Mock Draft Central.

Giants: Pablo Sandoval will win the NL batting title

This guy's a freak. He’s the only player in Arizona who didn’t report to spring training in the “best shape of his life,” instead choosing to remain his usual portly self, according to reports. However, he was a fat .330 hitter with 25 homers last year, and he’s only 23 years old. Also, if he moves to first base – which could happen if Aubrey Huff hits as horribly as he did last year – he can pretty much just concentrate on hitting without worrying about defense.

Cardinals: Yadier Molina will hit 10 home runs

This defensive stud has turned into a respectable hitter, getting his on-base percentage up to .366 and his OPS all the way to .749 last season. He’s batted .304 and .293 over the last two seasons, which is terrific for any non- Joe Mauer catcher. He increased his extra-base hit total in each of the previous two years, and his walk rate jumped in 2009, indicating that he’s doing a better job of waiting for his pitch. If he can just learn to get the ball up in the air a little more, he’ll hit double-digit homers for the first time and be a solid low-end starting catcher for mixed leaguers. He’s also close to becoming the best Molina brother.

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg will make his first major league start by June 1

You know how big-time college football teams schedule no-name opponents a couple times per season? This prediction is my Northwest Directional State. I’ve earned the right to a cupcake, don’t you think? The Nats are saying they won’t rush Strasburg, but if he starts the season in the minors, they probably won’t be able to keep him down there for long. Even if he only pitches four months in D.C., he’s still worth drafting as a fifth starter in a mixed league. By almost all accounts, his stuff is off-the-charts good.