Top 25 rookies to watch

Normally I cover eight to 10 players in my articles around here, but I just couldn’t control myself with the rookies. Instead of highlighting the best of the best, below are 25 rookies that have a chance to make a fantasy impact this season.

The key phrase is “this season.” The players are listed in order of their expected 2010 contribution, and that’s it.

For example, Tampa Bay’s Desmond Jennings might have as high a fantasy ceiling as anyone here, but since he’ll probably start the season in Triple A, I won’t rank him ahead of Scott Sizemore, who is expected to be the Opening Day second baseman for the Tigers. Make sense? Then let’s get going.

If you think I missed someone, let me know in the comments area below.

1. Neftali Feliz, SP, Texas

If you look at the Rangers’ depth chart, you’d think that they’ll keep Feliz in the bullpen for awhile longer. Their possible starters are Scott Feldman, Rich Harden, Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Brandon McCarthy and Matt Harrison. Elite, non-closing relievers give you nice numbers, but you’d never rank one near the top of a list like this.

I’m counting on the Rangers’ braintrust to be too smart to leave Feliz in the pen to dominate for 75 innings while a mediocrity like McCarthy or Harrison pitches every five days. The Rangers will almost certainly keep an eye on Feliz’s innings since his high as a pro is 127 1/3, but look for him to force his way into the rotation before the All-Star break. A hundred and forty innings from this flamethrower is better than 200 from a lot of guys. His ERA and WHIP as a starter won’t be quite as eye-popping as they were last year, but they should be pretty good, with plenty of strikeouts.

2. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee

The 23-year-old slick fielder isn’t much of a hitter yet, but he stole 126 bases over his last four minor league seasons, including 42 in 109 games at Triple A in 2009. His fantasy situation reminds me of that of Elvis Andrus in 2009. Everyone said Andrus couldn’t hit enough, and he wound up with six homers, a respectable .267 batting average and 33 stolen bases. Look for similar production from Escobar, though most projections have his BA in the high .280s.

3. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Detroit

Sizemore broke his leg in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s expected to be ready by Opening Day. If not for the injury, he might be at the top of this list after hitting .308 with 17 homers and 21 stolen bases between Double A and Triple A last year.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland recently said that Sizemore “looks like he has a lot of offensive potential, but will need work defensively.” As fantasy owners, that’s just fine with us.

4. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta

Heyward might be the top prospect in the galaxy, but he’s only 20 and has played just 50 games above A ball. In keeper leagues, kill every competing owner in your path to get this guy. For 2010, I’m guessing he’ll start off in Triple A, and then spend some time figuring things out after his promotion – he is really young. With that said, Heyward’s current obstacles in the Braves’ corner outfield spots are Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz, who probably won’t set the world on fire while Heyward destroys minor-league pitching for awhile.

Note: Heyward is ranked this high because he might break camp with the Braves; I wouldn't bet the house on my Triple-A guess. If he does start on Opening Day, even a modest rookie campaign of .280/15 HR can help some fantasy owners.

5. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington

The scouts I heard from at the Arizona Fall League said Strasburg was legitimately hitting 100 mph on the radar gun with a good curveball and decent change (which he never had to throw in college). Even if Strasburg doesn’t break camp with the Nats, he’ll probably force his way into the big leagues within a month or two. When he arrives, he should be pretty good. Two years from now, he could be frightening.

6. Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay

Davis has sleeper written all over him after a solid season at Triple A (10-8, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 140 K in 158 2/3 IP) and six solid starts at the end of the season for the Rays. He’s ready, and the only big concern about him is the potential presence of prospect Jeremy Hellickson, who has a higher ceiling than Davis but has made only nine starts at Triple A. The Rays like to move their starters very slowly, so Davis should have the rotation spot to himself until at least midseason.

7. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit

Here’s the Tigers’ second rookie, and he’s tentatively slated to play center field and bat leadoff. Jackson was acquired from the Yankees in the Curtis Granderson trade, and while he should steal 20-25 bases if he plays regularly, his power hasn’t developed yet. If he hits 10 homers, it’ll be a shock.

8. Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore

This 23-year-old southpaw dominated at two levels of the minors last season, and pitched respectably upon his promotion to Baltimore. He had a so-so 4.63 ERA in eight starts, but showed promise with a solid 38 strikeouts against 14 walks in 46 2/3 innings. I’ll never tell you to go all in on a rookie pitcher, but Matusz could be solid in AL-only formats.

9. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay

Between Double A and Triple A last season, Jennings batted .318 with 11 home runs, 92 runs scored and 52 stolen bases. Even if it takes him two or three months to force his way into the Rays’ lineup at the expense of a probable Matt Joyce/ Gabe Kapler platoon, Jennings will at least steal plenty of bases right away.

10. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle

Left field and DH are crowded for the Mariners right now, with Milton Bradley, Ken Griffey Jr. and defensive whiz Ryan Langerhans all on the roster. Since Bradley and Griffey are both more likely to become CEO of Starbucks than to stay healthy for a full season, Saunders is going to get his chance at some point. He hit .310 with 13 homers and six stolen bases in 64 games at Triple A last season, so he might help your AL-only roster when he’s not playing for the Tacoma Rainiers.

11. Drew Storen, RP, Washington

Storen is a hard-throwing future closer, and he’d have been much higher on this list if the Nats hadn’t signed former Pirate Matt Capps earlier this month. Figure on Storen pitching well in the minors until Capps gets traded to a contender at the July 31 deadline, and saving 10-12 games down the stretch. If your mixed league has a minor league or reserve draft, do your best to stash Storen.

12. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland

Taylor is on the fence between starting the season in the minors and battling Rajai Davis for playing time in left field. The linebacker-sized outfielder hit 20 homers and stole 21 bases between Double A and Triple A last season, and at age 24 with an improving walk rate, he’s close to making a big-league impact. I’m just not sure if the playing time will be there this season.

13. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco

Posey was a hot name on everyone’s fantasy radar before the Giants re-signed Bengie Molina. Now, Posey is expected to start the season in the minors, and he probably won’t make too much of an impact unless Molina gets hurt or traded. Long-term, Posey should be pretty good. This year? Too risky.

14. Adam Moore, C, Seattle

Moore is expected to share time with weak-hitting Rob Johnson for the M’s. Moore’s a better hitter than Johnson (.294 BA, nine HR at Triple A last year), but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll play more. He’s a second catcher in AL-only leagues, with some upside in a slot like that.

15. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas

With Vlad Guerrero locked in at DH and Michael Young entrenched at third base, Smoak needs A) a hot start and B) another Chris Davis demotion to claim the Rangers’ first base job. While that’s not out of the question, a lot of people are predicting a rebound from Davis. Smoak only has 442 minor-league at bats, so maybe another few months at Triple A will do him some good.

In a recent look at the Texas farm system, Baseball Prospectus prospect guru Kevin Goldstein tabbed Smoak’s best-case scenario as a “switch-hitting Justin Morneau.” That’s a nice scenario, but it could take another couple of years for him to get there.

16. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland

Santana has an unreal batting eye, excellent power for a catcher, and might be one of the top 10 prospects in the game. He dominated in Double A last season, and will probably get half a year at Triple A before getting promoted to start his countdown to Cooperstown. I swear I’m not just saying that because I have him for $5 on my AL-only roster.

17. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida

You won’t see Sanchez’s name on a lot of top prospect lists in the spring, as he’s 26 years old. But he’s not bad, and as long as he can hold off fellow prospect Logan Morrison for the Opening Day job, he could hit 15 homers with a decent batting average.

18. Brett Wallace, 3B, Toronto

Wallace is expected to move to first base this season, and wait for Lyle Overbay to get traded, benched, hit by a bus, etc. If he spends three or four months with the Jays, he could hit for decent average and power, but it probably won’t be anything to get excited about.

19. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland

Carter is a masher, having belted 91 homers over his last three minor-league seasons. He only played in Triple A for a couple of weeks at the end of 2009, and will probably start this year there. With only the immortal, slap-hitting Daric Barton blocking him, look for Carter to get a chance to play by midseason. He’s averaged more than a strikeout about per game as a minor leaguer, so he could struggle.

20. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh

Alvarez is considered to be a blue-chip prospect, but he’s low on this list because he’s played less than half a season at Double A, and I suspect the Pirates will be hesitant to rush him. Plus, my perennial sleeper Andy LaRoche plays third base for the Pirates now, and there’s no way I’d hype a prospect at his expense.

21. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati

The Cuban import supposedly has top-notch stuff and Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn’s control. He could get a spot in the Reds’ rotation soon, but I’d stay away. He seems like the kind of guy who could strike out plenty of hitters but blow up your ERA and WHIP.

22. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets

Unless Carlos Beltran’s injury is worse than the Mets are letting on, there’s no room for the 21-year-old Martinez. Jason Bay will be in left field for the next four years, a healthy Beltran would be entrenched in center, and in right will be Jeff Francoeur, who has snowed a lot of people into thinking he’s a good player. Martinez probably isn’t ready, anyway.

23. Jason Castro, C, Houston

Castro is Houston’s catcher of the future, and they have nothing to speak of behind the plate at the big-league level unless J.R. Towles becomes what we thought he’d be a couple of years ago. Still, Castro only has half a season of Double-A at bats under his belt, so he needs more time. I bet he’ll be up sometime this season.

24. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay

Per the information in Wade Davis’ entry above, I’m guessing that Hellickson will spend at least half a year in Triple A before getting his chance to crack the Rays’ rotation. He could be terrific down the road, but don’t expect too much this season.

25. Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto

You’ll hear his name a lot, he might be the Jays’ top prospect, and he could be a future ace. He still hasn’t pitched an inning against Triple-A hitters, and might get lit up if he’s rushed.

Young guys who no longer qualify as rookies, even though you probably think they do: Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee; Matt LaPorta, OF, Cleveland; Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati; Julio Borbon, OF, Texas; Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore