Top injury comebacks: Peavy a bargain?

In my last contribution, I reviewed a number of players working to get back to basics and regain their former status as fantasy studs. It’s a list that was cut for the sake of brevity. The idea was to get your minds wrapped up in distinguishing between true, unavoidable and unstoppable downturns in production and blips on the back of a player’s trading card.

Naturally, that list scrolls on for pages when we begin to consider the myriad of injuries that befall players and negatively impact their final stat lines. In this entry to our spring training fodder, I’m reviewing a number of players working to return to domination following injuries that beset their 2009 campaigns. Let’s start in Cleveland.

I’m not going to begin a lengthy diatribe regarding Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore, who appeared in only 106 games last year because of groin and elbow injuries, but still ripped 18 home runs (44 extra-base hits) and attempted 21 stolen bases (13 successes).

He’ll move down a slot in the batting order this season, thus opening up additional RBI opportunities (will he run less?). The biggest area of concern is his batting average has slipped in three consecutive seasons. Perhaps moving down a slot in the batting order will open up opportunities for him to boost his batting average.

The Indians are also banking on a bounce-back campaign from former fantasy hero, Travis Hafner. The former 40-home run slugger's appeared in only 151 games the past two seasons and was slowed for much of 2009 because of a shoulder injury. He ripped 35 extra-base hits and 16 home runs last season and drove in 49 runs. He also owns a .387 career on-base percentage.

Do I anticipate that Jake Peavy will return to his dominant 2007 form while pitching in U.S. Cellular Field? No, I don't. However, I’m not joining the doom and gloom projection bandwagon, either. Peavy’s hit rate between 2008 and his pre-injury term in 2009 with San Diego didn’t change much at all, and his strikeout rate was actually higher.

I'm moderately concerned about his groundball-to-flyball ratio, which could come back to haunt him in Chicago. If he's sound, he could prove to be a relative bargain (high teens or early-20s among SPs) for trusting owners. He certainly showed flashes of his former self when dominating the Tigers in back-to-back late-season starts.

San Diego starter Chris Young struggled in his return to the mound in 2009 following the fated line drive that caused facial injuries. He then sustained a shoulder injury in June and was shut down for the season. He'd pitched to career-worst 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP numbers prior to the injury, while both his hit and walk rates rose while his strikeout rate dropped off markedly (down 2.7 per nine IP from his brilliant 2007 campaign).

He's going to be available late in drafts this spring, so if his velocity and break on his curveball return, he'll be a bargain in that glorious pitchers park.

Recently, it was reported that Daisuke Matsuzaka sustained a leg injury during last year’s World Baseball Classic that derailed his 2009 season. He didn’t immediately report the injury to team officials, and he struggled out of the gate before spending a long stretch in the minor leagues because of a weakened shoulder.

He struggled following that first minor league stint in the minors, but closed out the season well following another trip to the disabled list. He pitched to a 2.22 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings in his final four starts of the year, but allowed 12 walks in that stretch, a portion of the stat line that left us more than a tad bit frightened.

Still, if physically sound, I have to anticipate him returning to 14-16 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA while pitching every fifth day for the Red Sox. The details about his 2009 injuries and the lack of information being exchanged is positively frightening, but we’ll see if he and the Sox can put it behind them and get back to work.

Jeff Francis missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing shoulder surgery, but seeks to reclaim his spot near the top of the Colorado rotation behind new ace Ubaldo Jimenez. He struggled to a record of 4-10 and career-worst ERA (5.01) and WHIP (1.48) totals in 24 starts during the 2008 season before getting shut down.

Ted Lilly received encouraging news from an MRI on his sore knee, as no structural damage was discovered. As he’s returning from arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder, Cubs officials, fans and fantasy owners obviously need to monitor his progress. If sound, he's a solid strikeout performer, having averaged 169.7 strikeouts in three seasons with the Cubs. He’s also averaged 14.7 wins and a solid 3.70 ERA.

Adrian Beltre suffered a terrible injury during the dog days of August, an injury men are still feeling as spring training games begin (I won’t elaborate). Therefore, his stay in Seattle ended on a sour note. He joins the Red Sox and assumes the everyday starting third base job after having averaged 25.3 home runs and 88.3 RBI in his final three full seasons in Seattle.

We can reasonably expect to see his power return and a flurry of balls struck off of The Green Monster. He'll also take off on the basepaths, having produced a double-digit stolen base total in three of the past four years.

Brandon Webb reportedly threw off a mound multiple times this past week in preparation for spring training, recovering from August shoulder surgery. Manager A.J. Hinch is encouraged by his progress and looks for Webb to return to ”1” or “1-A” status in the Arizona rotation.

Obviously, time will tell whether he's regained his stuff and will be able to reclaim his past Cy Young form. He’d won 14 or more games in four consecutive seasons prior to last year’s injury-decimated campaign (one start) and owns a sterling 3.27 career ERA.

Ching-Ming Wang missed extensive time in his final season in New York with a foot injury. He was battered around in his 12 appearances, surrendering 14.14 hits per nine innings with a terrible walk rate (4.07 per nine IP). This shortened season came after an abbreviated 15-start 2008 campaign. Naturally, his run support will be anemic in Washington compared to the Yankee juggernaut. Still, he pitched to a sub-4.00 in his last two full seasons in New York, so there’s some hope for a return to fantasy worthiness at the back-end of your staff if Wang’s healthy.

Carlos Quentin struggled terribly early last season and missed an extended period of time because of knee, foot and wrist injuries. He put up ridiculous numbers in 2008 and, if healthy, we should see his productivity return toward those heights.

The White Sox brought in Juan Pierre to help jumpstart Ozzie Guillen’s offense, and the growth of Gordon Beckham should help keep the line moving. Quentin's produced one extra-base hit per 7.96 at-bats at U.S. Cellular Field while sporting a respectable, albeit unspectacular, .271 batting average.

The Braves are trusting that Troy Glaus can bounce back from a career-low 14 game season in 2009. In fact, he’s missed extensive time in two of the past three seasons (115 games in 2007). He's the classic big power, low batting average option if he’s sound, but there’s a lot of risk associated with his selection. His move across the diamond to first base should help remove some of the stress on his shoulder.

Conor Jackson’s 2009 season was derailed because of a bout with “Valley Fever,” a fungal disease that causes coughing, fever (duh), muscle soreness and can gravitate to pneumonia, as it did with Jackson. He’s ready to shake off his dismal 30-game partial season and get back to hitting now. He batted .300 with 49 extra-base hits (12 home runs), 75 RBI and swiped 10 bases in 2008 and is slated to be the everyday left fielder in Arizona this season.

My “all things relative” entrant to this list is Jeremy Bonderman, also of the Tigers. He's currently penciled into the fourth slot in the rotation, and his velocity will be monitored closely this spring. He'd established himself as a top-tier strikeout artist before shoulder woes claimed his past two seasons, but he's been throwing without pain and is supposed to be maintaining a regular throwing schedule.