Save leaders: Cordero ranked first

The ranking process is a long and arduous task. Spreadsheets are strewn about rooms and Sharpies are worn to nubs. At times, you’d think that you were scripting the next Presidential address or working spin for the latest PR scandal. Lines are drawn everywhere as you re-order names, stats and update data.

It’s nothing that important on a national scale, but in our own individual worlds, it’s everything. Domination is the order of the day.

When we review closers each spring, we naturally have to consider the CIW. That is to say, we need to evaluate the “closers in waiting” and make our assessments of the incumbent’s job security. That forces us to re-work our rankings and shuffle things as we approach opening day.

It goes without saying that the players on our ranking sheets shift depending on the scope of our examination. In this particular piece, I’m examining the “saves” category. Some of our elite closers in the overall scheme fall a few spots in this arena, while a few surprises work their way to the top.

Let’s start in Oakland.

20. Andrew Bailey, OAK
2009 Saves : 26
2010 Saves Projection : 28
Bailey burst onto the scene to claim the vacated Oakland closer role and rolled all the way to the American League Rookie of the Year award. He struck out 9.83 batters per nine innings pitched (3.79 per walk) and surrendered just 5.29 hits per nine innings.

I’m curious to watch him in action with a retooled starting rotation. Justin Duchscherer is back from injury and will be joined by Ben Sheets, whose injury history makes him a big gamble. Former top prospect Gio Gonzalez is also trying to find his major league legs. The bullpen is certainly stacked to bridge the gap if the offense can get Bailey the ball.

19. Huston Street, COL
2009 Saves : 35
2010 Saves Projection : 29
Street performed tremendously in his first year in Colorado, successfully converting 35 of his 37 save chances. He struck out 10.2 batters per nine innings pitched and successfully limited his free passes (1.89 walks per nine IP) with a miniscule hit rate (6.28 per nine IP). Street has never struggled with his control, but he’ll need to keep the ball down to succeed in his follow-up campaign. He’ll certainly receive opportunities off of the arm of Ubaldo Jimenez. Which other member of the staff steps up? Can Jeff Francis return to pre-surgery form?

18. Ryan Franklin, STL
2009 Saves : 38
2010 Saves Projection : 30
Franklin is part of the larger pack of closers that fantasy owners will be watching as the season gets underway. Following a brilliant first half to the 2009 season, Franklin came back to earth. He pitched to a 3.33 second-half ERA (0.79 in the first half) and his WHIP soared to 1.70 (equal walks to strikeouts with a much higher hit rate).

Trever Miller, Jason Motte and Blake Hawksworth will be vying for the second chair behind Franklin. Opportunities will certainly be there for save opportunities behind Dave Duncan’s staff.

17. Joakim Soria, KC
2009 Saves : 30
2010 Saves Projection : 32
Soria has become a steady contributor in the back-end of the Kansas City bullpen. He started his run as a closer in 2007 and has been positively dominant in the past two seasons, converting 72 of 78 save opportunities with a composite 1.87 ERA and impressive 0.98 WHIP.

We still don’t know which pitcher steps up to be a consistent option behind Zack Greinke, but Soria reminds us that a sizable save total can be found regardless of the insignia on the cap.

17. Bobby Jenks, CWS
2009 Saves : 29
2010 Saves Projection : 32
Jenks has reportedly shed 25 pounds in preparation for the 2010 season as he seeks to rebound from a step backward in 2009. He struggled with his pitch location last season and surrendered nine home runs. He’d allowed 10 home runs in the previous three seasons combined.

I’m moderately concerned about the possibility of a demotion if he struggles, particularly with Matt Thornton and J .J. Putz operating in middle relief. The starting rotation (and middle relief) is certainly there to help push Jenks back to his 2006 and 2007 numbers. Will he make the most of his opportunities?

15. Rafael Soriano, TB
2009 Saves : 27
2010 Saves Projection : 33
Soriano had long been a stellar middle relief option for owners in AL or NL-only leagues. In 2009, Soriano became an effective closing option last season and converted 27 of 31 opportunities. He struck out 12.13 batters per nine innings (3.8 per walk) and was, at times, unhittable.

I’m excited to see Soriano pitch behind this improving rotation with one of the top middle relief corps in the mix.

15. Carlos Marmol, CHC
2009 Saves : 15
2010 Saves Projection : 33
Lou Piniella gave fantasy owners an early gift by installing Marmol as his closer for opening day. Marmol’s “stuff,” when on, is absolutely overpowering and mind-blowing. He allowed just two home runs in his 74 innings of work while striking out 93 batters and surrendering just 43 hits (5.23 per nine IP). Unfortunately, Marmol’s control also served to sabotage some of his outings and left Cubs fans and fantasy owners uneasy (7.9 walks per nine IP).

I’m concerned that Piniella’s patience runs out if the high walk rate returns. Do the Cubs wish Michael Wuertz (now in Oakland) was there as insurance?

13. David Aardsma, SEA
2009 Saves : 38
2010 Saves Projection : 34
It’s a good thing Aardsma posts a low hit rate (6.2 hits per nine IP) because his walk rate is troubling (4.3 walks per nine IP). Aardsma successfully converted 38 of his 42 save opportunities, his first in the closer seat. He is working hard to refine his control and retain the role after opening his career in middle relief. Aardsma is one of the closer options under scrutiny this spring, as Mark Lowe is there if he falters.

13. Mike Gonzalez, BAL
2009 Saves : 10
2010 Saves Projection : 34
Gonzalez performed brilliantly in his final year of middle relief for the Braves last season. He appeared in a career-high 80 games and saved 10 of 17 opportunities. Are the seven blown saves a red flag? Most importantly, Gonzalez proved that his arm injuries of the past are just that, left in the past. He struck out 10.9 batters per nine innings pitched and successfully limited his walk rate.

I still have to wonder whether a suitor will come calling prior to the deadline and puts Gonzalez back into middle relief. Jim Johnson closed for the Orioles late in 2009 and could be returned to the role.

11. Brian Fuentes, LAA
2009 Saves : 48
2010 Saves Projection : 36
Fuentes successfully converted 48 of 55 save opportunities in his first season with the Angels, but his peripheral statistics were actually more inflated there than during his time in Colorado. Fuentes struck out 46 batters in 55 innings of work, but walked nearly four batters per nine innings. As such, Fuentes is in danger of losing the job if his control is off once again, particularly with Fernando Rodney in the mix.

The Angels are perennially in the hunt for 90 wins, so the opportunities will be there for Fuentes to close out games. Scott Kazmir’s health and a possible bounce-back campaign for Ervin Santana make Fuentes a top option, but there is risk involved.

10. Heath Bell, SD
2009 Saves : 42
2010 Saves Projection : 36
Bell was among the breakout performers in this role in 2009. He struck out 10.2 batters per nine innings (3.29 per walk). Bell converted 42 of 48 save opportunities in 2009 and stands as a top-10 closer option entering this season. The Padres are going to be locked into a ton of close games once again, which should portend to another spate of opportunities for Bell this season. Of course, Bell is one of the players on the “Watch” list regarding a potential trade before the deadline. As such, the specter of a return to a middle relief role exists.

9. Jose Valverde, DET
2009 Saves : 25
2010 Saves Projection : 38
Valverde posted a phenomenal final season with the Astros and parlayed his extended run as the closer in Houston into a two-year deal with the Tigers. He converted 25 of 29 opportunities, produced strong ERA and WHIP totals and struck out 2.7 batters per walk surrendered.

He will be aided by a bolstered lineup, the return of fireballer Joel Zumaya to middle relief and a retooled rotation. Can Armando Galarraga bounce back?

8. Trevor Hoffman, MIL
2009 Saves : 37
2010 Saves Projection : 39
The baseball world waited to see the wheels come off for Hoffman last season as he joined the Brewers. Instead, the 42-year old closer performed brilliantly once again. Hoffman converted 37 of 41 save opportunities with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His ERA output was his lowest since 1998. Expect a regression in those categories, but it’s awfully difficult to project a complete meltdown. Hoffman has saved at least 30 games in 14 of the past 15 games.

8. Mariano Rivera, NYY
2009 Saves : 44
2010 Saves Projection : 39
Do I need to break out all of the stats and explain Rivera? The Yankees are revved up for another run toward a triple-digit win total. Rivera’s home run rate rose (seven in 66 1/3 IP), but he pitched positively lights-out baseball otherwise. He struck out six batters per walk and topped 40 saves for the first time since 2005. Rivera has saved 28 or more games in 13 consecutive seasons.

6. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM
2009 Saves : 35
2010 Saves Projection : 40
Rodriguez converted 35 of 42 save opportunities in his first year with the Mets, a season that was fraught with problems and injuries. His walk rate was problematic and contributed to his career-worst ERA and WHIP numbers (3.71 and 1.31). One thing to note is that Rodriguez’s strikeout dropped for the fourth straight season. That’s a trend that doesn’t lie. Still, the total of 35 saves is impressive considering all of the issues experienced by the Mets in 2009. Coming into camp, Rodriguez has no challenger for the role.

5. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
2009 Saves : 38
2010 Saves Projection : 41
Papelbon has established himself as one of the few clear-cut, safe choices at the closer slot. You’re receiving brilliant four-category production annually. In four years in this role, Papelbon has been absolutely dominant. He’s registered a composite 1.74 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and averaged 37.75 saves. Jon Lester is getting better with every outing, and the Red Sox welcome Daisuke Matsuzaka back into the mix.

4. Brian Wilson, SF
2009 Saves : 38
2010 Saves Projection : 42
Wilson has settled in nicely as the closer for the Giants, having registered 79 saves in two seasons as the full-time closing option. Granted, he’s blown 13 save opportunities, but Wilson has the strikeout punch to finish the job (10.02 per nine IP) and improved as his sophomore season reached its conclusion (1.64 post-All-Star ERA). With Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain leading the rotation (and possible breakout option Madison Bumgarner), Wilson will continue to rack up save opportunities. As we’ve seen in the past two years, the Giants are going to be in many tight games. Good pitching plus middling offense means value for Wilson. OK, middling might be an overstatement for the offense.

3. Jonathan Broxton, LAD
2009 Saves : 36
2010 Saves Projection : 43
Broxton dominated in his first full season in the closer role for the Dodgers. His strikeout rate jumped off of the charts to a ridiculous rate of 13.5 per nine innings (nearly four per walk allowed). Broxton converted 36 of 42 save opportunities while surrendering 5.2 hits per nine innings pitched (career-low WHIP).

Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley lead the charge, but there are questions in the back-end of the rotation. Will Hideki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla be able to work deep enough into games to get the ball to George Sherrill as the bridge to Broxton? I suspect that Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and company will generate enough runs to make that possible.

2. Joe Nathan, MIN
2009 Saves : 47
2010 Saves Projection : 44
Nathan addressed his offseason surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, telling reporters that his arm feels fine and will be ready for 2010. He’s saved 36 or more games in six consecutive seasons while registering a WHIP of 1.02 or lower. In fact, Nathan has averaged 41 saves per season during this period.

Assuming that he’s healthy, Nathan will be ready for another big run. The Twins are always competitive in the AL Central, and the return of Francisco Liriano to full health (he claims he’s back) can only help.

1. Francisco Cordero, CIN
2009 Saves : 39
2010 Saves Projection : 46
Cordero improved markedly in his second season in Cincinnati. He lowered his ERA by 1.17 runs and improved his walk rate (an improvement that helped offset his lower strikeout rate). Cordero’s walk rate remains troubling (four per nine IP), but he overcame those issues with his lower, but still decent, strikeout rate and superior hit rate. The Reds have the arms to make some noise in 2010. We’ll be watching Homer Bailey and Aroldis Chapman with great anticipation this spring.