SP preview: Top 25

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No position poses more of a threat to your fantasy well-being than that of starting pitchers.

How many times have you drafted the latest fireballing youngster and watched him implode because he lacked a second pitch or sustained a devastating injury? Seriously, I love to see a player top out in the mid-90s on the Jugs gun, and raise an arm to the sky or whirl around like a Tasmanian devil following a strikeout. But without a repertoire that includes at least one other pitch, that player’s upside is limited.

As we reach toward the top of the starting pitcher position, we see a number of pitchers with lights-out strikeout punch. I do feel strange heading into a season without writing about Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, even in the second or third tiers. It’s a new world order, as evidenced by the appearances of players named Wandy, Ubaldo and Yovani.

Let's start in Houston.

25. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston:
2009 Stats: 14 W, 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 193 K
Rodriguez experienced the breakthrough campaign that we’d been anticipating for several seasons in 2009. He established new career marks in each of the four primary starting pitcher categories. Rodriguez’s 14 wins and 3.02 ERA were impressive marks.

In fact, if you remove a horrific 10-run outing against the Brewers in August, Rodriguez pitched to a brilliant 2.63 ERA. He also struck out 3.06 batters per walk allowed. Jump onboard the bandwagon for 2010.

24. Josh Beckett, Boston:
2009 Stats: 17 W, 3.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 199 K
Beckett couldn’t bring his statistics in line with his 2007 dominance (20 wins), but fans could hardly complain about his rebound from an injury-shortened 2008 season. He earned 17 wins for the Red Sox and posted an ERA in line with his career mark of 3.79. Beckett struck out 3.62 batters per walk, reduced his hit rate and pitched to a 1.19 WHIP, a mark lower than his 1.22 career mark.

23. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado:
2009 Stats: 15 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 198 K
Part of me wants to vault Jimenez up the ranks. After watching him during the past two seasons, I’m absolutely enamored with this power pitcher. Unfortunately, I still have to make note of the “CR” on his cap. It doesn’t define him, but Jimenez still has pieces of his game to refine to move up the ladder.

In his two full seasons in Colorado, Jimenez has averaged 7.99 strikeouts per nine innings. His high walk rate (4.06 walks per nine IP) is somewhat problematic. Jimenez erases batters with that top-notch strikeout punch, but danger lurks with every walk.

22. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers:
2009 Stats: 8 W, 2.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 185 K
Like Jimenez above, Kershaw’s walk rate leaves you queasy. You just can’t turn away from the high strikeout rate and those runs when Kershaw is virtually unhittable (6.26 hits per nine IP). Kershaw allowed 4.79 walks per nine innings pitched, but helped to erase those mistakes with 9.74 strikeouts per nine IP. There’s still some refinement in Kershaw’s game to come, but the future’s frighteningly bright.

21. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee
2009 Stats: 13 W, 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 204 K
How about the hat trick? Gallardo is another pitcher with tremendous strikeout punch and a dangerous flirtation with free passes (4.56 walks per nine IP). He had five terrible starts that dragged down his ERA and WHIP numbers. Gallardo pitched to a miserable 11.92 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in those starts. He pitched to a ridiculous 2.42 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP in his other 25 trips to the mound. Obviously, Gallardo will experience a bad outing or two along the way, but a moderate improvement in his walk rate will thrust him to the next level.

20. Ricky Nolasco, Florida:
2009 Stats: 13 W, 5.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 195 K
Nolasco is one of the more intriguing starters to watch coming into spring training. He was shipped to the minor leagues briefly before coming back and demonstrating brilliant strikeout punch and promise of big things to come. Nolasco won seven of his 15 post-All-Star starts with a pedestrian 4.39 ERA despite a sterling 1.12 WHIP. He struck out 4.56 batters per walk in the second half, piquing our interest for draft day 2010.

Nolasco remains subject to brutal outings on occasion, as he did allow five or more earned runs in eight contests. Those double-digit strikeout totals and the confines of Land Shark Stadium lure us back for the dreaded “P” word. Nolasco’s potential is immense.

19. Cole Hamels, PHI:
 2009 Stats: 10 W, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K
Hamels is working to rediscover his magic following last year’s struggles. His ERA rose by 1.23 runs, and Hamels was markedly more hittable. Hamels struck out nearly four batters per walk allowed, so things could have been much worse. He’s working to refine his off-speed pitches this spring to reclaim that World Series MVP swagger.

Hamels pitched well in only two of six months in the 2009 season. He pitched to a miserable 4.99 road ERA. With Roy Halladay in tow, the pressure is somewhat off of Hamels coming into the spring. The Phillies, their fans and fantasy owners certainly hope that it translates to a calmer, more efficient season from him.


18. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta:
2009 Stats: 11 W, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 116 K
“Little” Tommy was one of the most highly touted prospects of the 2009 season. Fantasy owners drafted him last spring in anticipation of his call-up. When Hanson arrived in June, he certainly didn’t disappoint (after that first start, of course). Hanson struck out 8.18 batters per nine innings following his call-up and pitched to a tremendous 2.89 ERA. He struck out seven or more batters in nine of his 21 starts. Get ready for the encore.

17. John Lackey, Boston:
2009 Stats: 11 W, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K
Lackey joins the battle in the AL East after spending eight productive years in Anaheim (Los Angeles by way of marketing). He won at least nine games in each of his eight campaigns in Boston, averaging 2.72 strikeouts per walk with a solid, albeit unspectacular, 3.81 ERA.

He’d struggled out of the gate in the past two seasons with a sore arm. The Red Sox will be cautious with Lackey this spring, and he’ll eat innings when healthy (6 1/3 IP per start in his eight years in Anaheim). Lackey will produce wins with the Red Sox lineup behind him, and I don’t expect to see much of a bump in his ERA and WHIP.

16. Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox:
2009 Stats: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K
Peavy won all three of his starts following his acquisition by the White Sox. He shut out the Tigers over 15 innings in back-to-back starts (eight hits) with four walks and 13 strikeouts to close out the season.

I’m very intrigued by Peavy this season, and that’s not just because of my Chicago background. There’s some concern about his move to the American League for a full season and how much of a difference you’ll see away from PETCO. Peavy is still a high strikeout performer who limits his free passes (3.1 strikeouts per walk in his career). His ERA may take a hit above his 3.26 career mark, but a sound Peavy still puts together a strong four-category campaign. He may come as a bit of a bargain on draft day.

15. Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees:
2009 Stats: 15 W, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K
Why did you have to leave the National League? Atlanta fans had certainly hoped to see an encore of his 2009 campaign, and it goes without saying that fantasy owners were giddy at the prospect of teaming Vazquez with Tommy Hanson.

His return to New York certainly portends to a sizable boost in his ERA and WHIP totals this season. Vazquez pitched to a composite 4.42 ERA in three seasons with the White Sox and Yankee fans certainly remember his 4.91 ERA from the 2004 season. Take the huge strikeout total and the 15-17 wins Vazquez offers behind the potent lineup. Just know that there’s some hit to be taken in the ERA and WHIP columns.

14. Josh Johnson, Florida:
2009 Stats: 15 W, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 191 K
Fantasy owners received a glimpse of things to come in Johnson’s partial season with the Marlins in 2008. Johnson earned seven wins while pitching to a strong 3.61 ERA. He was even better in his first full season in the Marlins’ rotation. Johnson struck out 8.22 batters per nine innings (3.29 strikeouts per walk allowed), and reduced his ERA and WHIP output while winning 15 games.

Johnson was absolutely dominant during the first half of the season, pitching to a sparkling 2.74 ERA (4.00 after the break). His high strikeout rate, combined with hurling in a tremendous pitchers’ park, make Johnson a phenomenal choice this season.

13. John Lester, Boston:
2009 Stats: 15 W, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K
Lester was a tremendous contributor for the Red Sox and fantasy owners in 2008 and nearly duplicated his efforts in 2009 with a major spike in his strikeout rate (9.96 strikeouts per nine IP). His ERA rose slightly (0.2 runs), but he improved his hit rate and many of the peripherals. The lone hiccup in Lester’s stat line was that he allowed six more home runs than he did in 2008, thereby causing the moderate jump in his ERA.

12. Matt Cain, San Francisco:
2009 Stats: 14 W, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 171 K
Cain didn’t receive much more help from the offense than he did in 2008, but he dropped his ERA by nearly one full run and earned six additional wins. He reduced his hit rate over his 2008 mark and also walked fewer batters (3.02 per nine IP). Cain’s strikeout rate also dropped last season, but his moderate improvement in his groundball rate helped in the reduction of his ERA.

11. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis:
2009 Stats: 19 W, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 212 K
Dave Duncan worked his magic again in 2009. Wainwright had shown flashes of brilliance in his first two full seasons in St. Louis. He put it all together and produced a dominant 2009 campaign. Wainwright experienced a dramatic increase in his strikeout rate (8.19 per nine IP) and dropped his ERA by nearly two-thirds of a run. His ERA might regress moderately, but I’m anticipating another 15-17 win season in the offing.

10. Cliff Lee, Seattle:
2009 Stats: 14 W, 3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 181 K
Lee is expected to begin throwing later this week, and he’s expected to be ready for opening day following foot surgery to remove a bone spur. He’ll benefit from a rebuilt Seattle lineup and a move to a tremendous pitchers’ park.

Lee has won 14 or more games in five of the past six seasons while averaging 6.77 strikeouts per nine innings. His walk rate in the past several years has been ridiculously low and he’s decreased the number of home runs allowed. I’m anticipating a big year.

9. Justin Verlander, Detroit:
2009 Stats: 19 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 269 K
Verlander rebounded from a misstep in 2008 to win a career-best 19 wins, bolstered by an explosion in his strikeout rate (10.09 per nine IP). In the past four years, Verlander has averaged 16.3 wins with solid, albeit unspectacular, ERA and WHIP numbers (3.92 ERA and 1.28 WHIP). Still, last year’s dominance has me excited about the 2010 season. His contract is in place. The lineup has been tweaked. Will the bullpen take care of him?

8. Johan Santana, New York Mets:
2009 Stats: 13 W, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K
According to reports, Santana’s elbow is progressing well and he will be ready to throw in spring training games in short order. He reported that he’s felt no discomfort while throwing any of pitches, but we’ll breathe the sigh of relief after a few outings.

Santana was positively dominant last season, routinely mowing opposing batters down before his elbow injury derailed his year. He thrived despite the lack of support from his offense (struggling would be an understatement). David Wright is bulked up and looking to rebuild his power stroke. Might he, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran be ready to provide the support Santana needs to earn those extra wins?

7. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis:
2009 Stats: 17 W, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K
We had nothing but questions concerning Carpenter following two lost seasons. Sure, Carpenter had pitched to a 1.76 ERA in four appearances at the end of 2008 but, while a good story, was no guaranty for the 2009 season. He answered all questions by winning 17 games with career-low ERA and WHIP numbers.

6. Zack Greinke, Kansas City:
2009 Stats: 16 W, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 242 K
Greinke’s history has been chronicled ad nausea. I’ve written about it in the past, and we’ll leave it at that. He experienced a breakthrough season in 2008, pitching to 13 wins and a strong 3.47 ERA. Greinke then joined the ranks of the elite and proved unhittable for long stretches of the 2009 season. He entered June with a ridiculous 1.10 ERA!

We can reasonably expect a modest regression in his statistical output this season, but Greinke has figured it out. His control is impeccable and his strikeout rate has exploded. If the Royals give him support, Greinke’s win total could push north this season.

5. Felix Hernandez, Seattle:
2009 Stats: 19 W, 2.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 217 K
“King” Felix finally put together that complete season that we’d been anticipating since his 12-game audition for the Mariners in 2005. That isn’t to say that Hernandez had pitched terribly in the three years prior to last year’s dominance, but his hit and walk rates conspired to boost his ERA and WHIP counts.

In 2009, it all came together. Hernandez reduced his ERA by nearly a full run from his 2008 output, drastically reduced his WHIP and improved his strikeout rate. The Mariners spent the offseason improving the lineup, so the pieces are there for an encore performance in a tremendous pitchers’ park.

4. Dan Haren, Arizona:
2009 Stats: 14 W, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K
Haren dominated National League batters and improved all of his peripheral stats in 2009. Alas, the Arizona hitters couldn’t put him into the win column more frequently. Haren pitched to a brilliant 1.00 WHIP (1.49 walks per nine innings) while striking out 8.75 batters per nine innings pitched. He’s averaged 14.6 wins per season in the past five years.

3. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees:
2009 Stats: 19 W, 3.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 197 K
Sabathia produced a phenomenal first campaign in the Bronx. There were questions about whether his ERA would balloon, or if his WHIP would rise markedly while playing in the tough AL East. Sabathia answered all of those questions following a rough first month.

Obviously, it would have been mighty intriguing to see Sabathia mow down National League hitters. Instead, he continued to put up huge numbers. In his past 3 1/2 seasons as an American League pitcher, Sabathia has amassed 56 wins with a tremendous 3.35 composite ERA.

2. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia:
2009 Stats: 17 W, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K
Following 11 seasons as a dominant hurler in Toronto, Halladay takes to the National League and leaves the Yankees and Red Sox behind. Even if you’re moderately concerned about his arrival to Citizens Bank Ballpark (He did allow 22 home runs last year,), you have to get giddy about envisioning Halladay dominating opposing pitchers who are facing him.

Halladay obliterated opposing hitters in the American League, striking out 7.68 batters per nine innings while offering just two walks per nine innings. Why should that be any different for his new squad? Look for a boost in his strikeout rate and an ERA even a tick lower than Halladay’s past two dominant seasons in Toronto.

1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco:
2009 Stats: 15 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K
Lincecum won his second straight NL Cy Young award last season and was rewarded with a huge two-year, $23 million deal. Skeptics wondered aloud last spring whether the smallish Lincecum would be able to replicate his brilliant 2008 campaign. He won three fewer games, but you can hardly blame him for the Giants’ pathetic offensive daily efforts. Lincecum reduced his ERA, improved his WHIP, struck out batters in bunches (10.4 strikeouts per nine IP) and allowed just 5.7 hits per nine innings. Saddle up for another run. Maybe the offense will help him out more often.