Top comebacks: Watch Nolasco closely

Fantasy owners are circling the draft boards and reviewing ADP (I’ll be doing that on these pages in short order) to find the potential bargains. The draft season hasn’t officially gotten into high-gear. That will happen around the time we complete our NCAA tournament brackets and start to get notices about the victors and losers for fifth spots in rotations or outfield slots.

Naturally, there’s an extensive run of players, particularly pitchers, who seek to regain their form following injuries. I’ll start what could be a laundry list of players of this ilk tomorrow (think: NFL injury reports). For now, I’m reviewing a number of players who seek to return to past glory. Perhaps there was an injury issue they battled through, thus negatively impacting their output. Perhaps they were victims of a depleted lineup or pitching staff. Perhaps expectations in 2009 were just too high.

I’ll eschew the analysis of David Wright in New York. Long before he appeared with additional muscle mass, we all dismissed his 10-home run production as an off-year. He still did everything else for the Mets and fantasy owners and simply suffered a power outage. He’ll be back.

I begin this quick-hit review with Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins. I constructed the bandwagon ahead of last season and was left driving alone. Curious fantasy owners are starting to climb aboard for his 2010 run. I’m glad I kept the beverages on ice. Nolasco's one of the more intriguing starters to watch coming into spring training. He was shipped to the minor leagues briefly before coming back and demonstrating brilliant strikeout punch and promise. He won seven of his 15 post-All-Star starts with a pedestrian 4.39 ERA despite a sterling 1.12 WHIP. He struck out 4.56 batters per walk in the second half, piquing our interest for draft day 2010.

Right-hander Armando Galarraga produced a tremendous breakthrough campaign for the Tigers in 2008. We talked about his need to improve his strikeout rate coming into 2009, but we couldn’t have expected everything to fall apart. His ERA rose by nearly two full runs, and his walk and hit rates both rose while his strikeout rate fell. I certainly don’t anticipate a monster season, but he could definitely get back to double-digit wins and bring his numbers back in line with his 2008 totals. He’ll come as a bargain on draft day.

Fantasy owners clamored to select Francisco Liriano last spring in anticipation of a triumphant return to the mound in Minnesota. He did post a jaw-dropping season, to be sure. Unfortunately, it was for all of the wrong reasons. He still demonstrated tremendous punch in the strikeout column (8.03 strikeouts per nine IP), but he kept the ball up in the zone and his home run rate soared. Can he drop his walk rate and get back to his 2006 form? That might be a lot to ask for, but the Twins have a potential ace in the mix.

Can we buy into Barry Zito’s second half? Lost in his mediocre final stat line (4.03 ERA, 10 wins, 154 K, 1.35 WHIP) was the fact he pitched terrific baseball after the All-Star break. He averaged 7.74 strikeouts per nine innings and reduced his WHIP to a solid, albeit unspectacular, 1.29. Unfortunately, the San Francisco offense didn’t help him out enough to boost his win total (five in 13 second-half starts). He's an innings-eater who's pitched at least 180 innings in nine consecutive seasons.

Last year, B.J. Upton was one of the top players on fantasy draft boards. He’s dropped precipitously in early drafts this spring because of the freefall experienced in the batting average category and the disappearance of his power stroke. That might be a mistake. You’re still going to see him cross home plate with great regularity, and he’ll swipe 40 bases. I’m optimistic his batting average rises back in line with his .266 lifetime mark and that he rediscovers his lost power. He's reportedly put on seven or eight pounds of muscle this offseason, so a return to 20-home run output would make him a veritable bargain at his current draft slot.

Chris Young of the Diamondbacks was expected to develop into a perennial four-category star following his near 30-30 effort in 2007. Instead, he regressed in 2008, then his numbers fell off the map last season. He strikes out at an absolutely frightening level, so we’re not anticipating a huge up-tick in the batting average category. However, he did rap out 47 extra-base hits in his 433 at-bats with 11 thefts. I’m still intrigued by the power production, even with that big hole in his swing.

Ervin Santana struggled last season in-between long stretches on the disabled list with ligament issues in his elbow. Owners might dismiss him coming into the 2009 season, failing to note he pitched to a strong 3.17 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 72 2/3 innings in his final 11 starts. The dismal final output (5.03 ERA, 8 wins and 1.47 WHIP) swallows his strong second-half performance. If he’s physically sound, his trend of alternating good and bad years will continue in 2010.

Expectations were massive for Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees last season. He appeared in 31 games as a starter before rolling into the relief corps for the playoffs. He pitched to a dismal 4.75 ERA with a disastrous 1.54 WHIP and surrendered 21 home runs in his 157 1/3 innings of work. He packed tremendous strikeout punch, as we anticipated (133), but also walked 4.35 batters per nine innings. He'll need to exhibit better control if he’s going to beat out Phil Hughes for the fifth slot in the New York rotation. Otherwise, fantasy owners will be looking for him to support their bullpens. He allowed two earned runs in 7 1/3 innings as a reliever (10 appearances) with eight strikeouts.

Bobby Cox has demonstrated his commitment to veteran hurler Derek Lowe by naming him the starter on Opening Day. Lowe struggled terribly in 2009 after signing a hefty four-year contract. His 4.67 ERA was his highest output since his final year in Boston. Additionally, his walk rate rose, his strikeout dropped and his hit rate soared (10.73 per nine IP). Despite his steep drop-off in these categories, he still won 15 games. I expect to see his numbers return in line with his four-year run in Los Angeles (3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP).

Geovany Soto ranked among the biggest disappointments of the 2009 fantasy campaign. His batting average dropped by a full 67 points, as the second-year player hit a repulsive .196 on the road (not that his .239 batting average at home was overly impressive). He’s a tremendous candidate for a bounce-back season, as his contact rate actually improved marginally over his 2008 efforts. His BABIP dropped by some 95 points from his Rookie of the Year campaign. Some of those balls have to fall in this year, don’t they?

I’ll finish this ranting session with a review of Philadelphia shortstop and former MVP, Jimmy Rollins. He batted .250 last season, his worst output since 2003, but still contributed decent home run and stolen base production (21 and 31, respectively). However, his two-year batting average dropoff is concerning, with his BABIP dropping a full 57 points from his 2007 output. I expect to see his batting average come back in line with his .274 career mark. His unwillingness to take a walk won’t help the cause, but perhaps that stated goal of 50 stolen bases serves as a motivator (he’ll steal 35-40).