Kicker preview: Protect your leads with reliable kickers

When you talk fantasy kickers, you’re talking about a lot of uncertainty.

Very little of it has to do with the kicker’s ability itself. It’s more about how his team’s offense is gonna do that particular season, and whether it allows him to kick 50-yarders or send in the punter when it gets to that range.

Some guys have traditionally done well in fantasy leagues, regardless of how well his team does each year. Nate Kaeding and Robbie Gould are amongst them. But few are guaranteed point makers. It takes a lot of opportunities and a lot of luck as well. More so than any other position, this one can be considered a crapshoot most seasons. That’s why it’s safe to take the usual suspects more often than not, and to take them as late in the draft as you possibly can.

Franchise makers

It’s impossible to deem any kicker a “franchise maker,” really. However, Kaeding’s the best of the bunch, even if that means he’s no better than an eighth or ninth round pick in most drafts. Hell, I don’t draft a kicker until the final round of any draft I’m in. That’s a rule I’ve stood by for years now, and it’s never made a significant difference to my team either way, so there’s no changing that rule any time soon.

Mason Crosby got his career off to an incredible start in 2007, with a still personal-best 141 points despite missing eight field goal attempts. That’s 8.8 points a game, which is well above the average you’re hoping a kicker to give you each week. For the last two years, he’s followed that up with 127 and 129 points, respectively, and the Packer offense is only going to get better with Aaron Rodgers improving every season.

When you kick for the league’s highest-scoring team, you’re gonna get a ton of points yourself. That’ll be the case with Garrett Hartley for as long as he’s able to prove he’s worthy of the job. Grab on to him and guarantee yourself 60-70 points on touchdowns alone. Kicking on turf 11 times this season won’t hurt, either.

Sleepers

I hate saying this more than you can possibly know. Olindo Mare was an absolute disaster for about 2-3 years straight in Miami, who I left for dead after his stint on South Beach. However, he proved me wrong in a big way last year in Seattle. Now, with an offense that can only improve under Pete Carroll this season, Mare may actually have a better offensive output. I feel sick to my stomach already having said that.

Under Jake Delhomme last year, the Panther offense was a disgrace. They couldn’t get anything going without a turnover half the time. It kept John Kasay’s point total to 97, his lowest in six years. That has to improve this year after having seen Delhomme go to Cleveland and moving on with a trio of young talented quarterbacks and easily the best 1-2 running duo in the NFL.

Value buys

Shayne Graham had a terrible game in the playoffs, which has the team looking at replacements for him, but I don’t think he’ll be losing his position just yet. This is a team that’s improved a lot on offense over the offseason, which means you can get Graham on the cheap in 2010.

Gotta love the 19-year vet this season. The Lions have been slowly giving their offense more and more weapons the last two-plus years, and Jason Hanson will be the beneficiary of that stockpiling.

Buyer beware

Adam Vinatieri had more than 118 points just once in the last 11 seasons. For a guy who’s played in the offenses of both New England and Indianapolis, that’s really somewhat weak. He’s 37 years old now and coming off the first serious injury of his career. Just because Peyton Manning holds court for the Colts, don’t think that does much for Vinatieri’s point total.

Like I said before, when it comes to kickers, hardly any of them are worth a pick earlier than the 15th-round, even though several will get selected much, much higher. As a frame of reference, this year’s No. 1 ranked kicker is Keading. At No. 20, you have K.C.’s Ryan Succop. Keading had 146 points in 2009, compared to the 104 for Succop. That’s a 42-point difference, or 2.6 points a game. Succop probably won’t even be drafted in most leagues, whereas Kaeding may get drafted around Round 10. Does that make any sense to you? Is 2.6 points a week worth the 8-12 round difference?

My point is, wait until the final round to pick a middle-of-the-road kicker. Use that 10th-round pick to make up the lost 2.6 points on a third running back, fourth wide receiver or something better than a guy who averages no more than 8-9 points a week, because even the worst kicker on the board averages 6-7 points.