Rounding third: Deep sleepers

Rajai Davis, Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa helped win a lot of leagues last year with their strong second half performances. After the All-Star break, Davis hit .325, stole 30 bases and scored 46 runs in 71 games. In that same span, Sanchez posted a 3.83 ERA, won five games and struck out 98 in 84 2/3 innings. De La Rosa played a huge role in the Rockies' second half surge, turning in a 3.46 ERA, 10 wins and 94 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings.

These three players heretofore had failed to put it all together, despite showing glimpses here and there of their high-upside talent. All three had historically struggled to cement full-time roles with their team(s), thanks usually to one fatal flaw in their game. Thus, even in the deepest of leagues, they were generally available at or near the end of the draft or for the league minimum in auction leagues.

All too often we look for reasons not to acquire a particular player. More often than not, the reasons to dismiss a player are perfectly valid. A hitter who has a lot of speed might not have any power, or a potential slugger might also kill your average. A strikeout pitcher might also walk the ballpark or give up a ton of flyballs. But the later you get in the draft, you need to focus less on what could go wrong and instead ask what can go right.

This is a topic I recently discussed with Will Carroll on Monday's RotoWire Fantasy Sports Hour. It came up in the context of discussing the Tigers' Scott Sizemore, who’s tentatively slated to take over their starting second base job following the free agent departure of Placido Polanco. I took Sizemore as my final middle infielder in the RotoWire Mock Draft we did in December for the magazine.

Sizemore’s certainly a batting average risk, and he won't have the job security of other middle infielders. Those are the negatives. But looking at his minor league numbers, he's interesting in what he can do. Last season, he both hit for power (slugging .500 at two levels) and ran effectively (21-for-25 on the basepaths). While that sort of performance won't immediately translate, especially with him rehabbing from a broken ankle suffered at the Arizona Fall League, it demonstrates his potential. In the endgame of the draft or auction, I'd rather take a chance on a player with Sizemore's profile than go with a safer pick who doesn't offer much help in any particular category.

There's a finite number of safe across-the-board players, especially the deeper your league and later in the draft you go. As the draft progresses, there's increasingly little value to be found, period, let alone among those who are safe players. This is the point in the draft where you should be looking for hitters or pitchers who excel in one or two areas, rather than those who "don't hurt you" in any area. Much like how Earl Weaver would build his bench, you should match those players to address weaknesses on your team. If you waited on starting pitching early in your draft, finding a high-risk, high-strikeouts starter can fold in nicely with your squad.

Of course, these players are inherently riskier to own. More often than not, they're younger and don't necessarily have complete job security. One of my examples for 2010 isn't even guaranteed a spot in his team's rotation, but that's also why they're still available late in drafts. There's also the risk you'll have to suffer through some pretty bad stats before you cash in on their talent.

Both Sanchez and De La Rosa had miserable months of June before going on their big second halves. Before he threw his no-hitter last year, Sanchez had briefly lost his spot in the starting rotation and only got it back thanks to Randy Johnson's shoulder injury. The takeaway here is that you have to be patient, and you have to trust the underlying qualities in that player who made you invest in him in the first place.

Looking ahead to the 2010 season, here are some of the guys who’ll probably end up on a lot of my rosters as a process of the endgame. Keep in mind this applies more for deeper leagues, such as 15-team mixed leagues like the NFBC, or "only" leagues. The principle for shallower leagues holds true - the bottom spots of your roster are best used on guys with high upside - but the risk threshold isn't as high. All ADPs listed below are from MockDraftCentral.

Gio Gonzalez (ADP: 442) - Gonzalez has a lot in common with Sanchez and De La Rosa. He hasn't yet put it all together, posting a 5.75 ERA in 98 2/3 innings last year. He's been hampered by command issues, reflected both in his walk rate (5.11 BB/9IP) and HR rate (1.28/9IP) in ‘09. He shuttled back and forth from Triple-A Sacramento as a result, but finished the year in the A's rotation.

The overall numbers were pretty ugly, but they obscure a few positive signs. Most importantly, he struck out 109 batters over those 98 2/3 innings. If a pitcher can miss that many bats at the major league level, there's reason to hope that even when he works to correct his command woes, his stuff will be good enough to still provide a good strikeout rate.

Moreover, there's plenty of statistical evidence that he was unlucky last year, with a .369 BABIP against and 68 percent strand rate. Keep in mind the A's addressed their outfield defense by signing Coco Crisp and more often than not should have three outfielders with good range behind him, all while pitching in a very friendly park. You might want to keep him on your bench when he faces the Twins, however. In two starts against them, he gave up 18 runs over just 5 2/3 innings, including an 11-run strafing at home in July.

Felipe Paulino (ADP: 539) - This is one you can stash away for your reserve rounds, especially if you draft early on. On the surface, Paulino was awful last year, with a 3-11 record and a 6.27 ERA. His biggest downfall was the longball - he served up 20 homers in his 97 2/3 innings of work. Like Gonzalez, however, his strikeout rate (8.57/9IP) caught my eye. Furthermore, he too was quite unlucky - .368 BABIP against, 66 percent strand rate, and as an added bonus, one of the worst run support records in the game. He isn't guaranteed a rotation spot heading into spring training, but are we really counting on Brian Moehler keeping a job all year long?

Marc Rzepczynski (ADP: 381) - The Blue Jays potentially have a lot of options for their starting rotation heading into spring training. Rzepczynski quietly earned his shot last year and held his own in 11 major league starts before getting shut down in early September. Like the other pitchers on this list, he strikes out his fare share of batters, but has historically had control problems. Those characteristics carried over to his major league work, where he struck out 60 in 61 1/3 innings, but also walked 30.

Unlike Gonzalez and Paulino, Rzepczynski ended up with a decent ERA (3.67) and was reasonably lucky (.280 BABIP). Unlike the two above, Rzepczynski induced a good amount of ground balls last year, posting a 1.65 G/F, which kept some of those walks from coming back to haunt him. A little regression could be expected, especially with him having to toil in the A.L. East, but there's plenty of upside here.

Michael Brantley (ADP: 472) - Brantley blew his cover a bit with his September audition last year, hitting .313 with four stolen bases. He's perhaps this year's best candidate to emulate Rajai Davis, given his minor league track record of getting on base and stealing frequently once he arrives there.

Also like Davis, he's not much of a threat to hit for power, limiting his overall upside. That lack of power is what might prevent Brantley from a long-term gig with the Tribe, as it's hard to justify his lack of power from a corner outfield spot. But in the short-term, the Indians have very few viable alternatives. This is a team that allowed Chris Gimenez to play 20 games in the outfield last year. Brantley only has to beat out Gimenez, Trevor Crowe and Austin Kearns to retain a starting gig. If you can stash him away late, it'll give you the freedom to go after more of a pure slugger earlier in your draft while ignoring steals from that roster spot.

Rickie Weeks (ADP: 189) - It's coincidental that we mentioned Austin Kearns in the previous paragraph, because Weeks is hurtling down the same sort of career path - highly touted prospect who can't seem to stay on the field. He’s no longer young (27), but he's still spry.

Before his wrist injury in May, Weeks was finally starting to put it together, hitting for power (.517 slugging percentage) with at least a respectable average (.272). He's capable of providing both power and speed from the second base/middle infield slot, with a big health risk and a slightly smaller batting average risk. His sub-optimal defensive reputation has also made him the subject of trade rumors and position change rumors, but neither has come to fruition yet.

Like Kearns for the longest time (and Jeremy Hermida currently, for that matter), I remain stubbornly optimistic he'll fulfill his promise one of these years, and this could be that year. Weeks is the one player listed here you'll have to go after in the middle rounds, but he'll be worth the reach.

You'll notice one other unifying trend among these players: they all play for teams that had losing records in 2009. Even in this day-and-age where good information is readily available, and there's "no such thing as a sleeper", there's often a tendency to overlook players on losing teams. Exploit that tendency and find your own endgame targets, and you too might end up with a player who can push you over the top in September.

Written by Jeff Erickson, this article first appeared 1/21/10