Projecting the fantasy value of Braun

Aw, “the reach.” Nothing quite signals universal disparage and humiliation in fantasy than the time-honored tendency of erroneous early attainment. The motives for this miscalculation are varied but chronic across the drafting landscape: a unique affinity by an owner for a particular player, or, as a corollary, coveting a hometown team’s star; an overabundance of hype surrounding a rookie; simply overestimating an athlete’s value. The intention behind the latter’s fallacy usually stems from misjudging the market; in essence, deeming others will snatch the player in question if failing to acquire his services with the upcoming pick, only to ultimately realize the newly-acquired combatant was nowhere to be found on the league members’ radars. Dejection, indeed.

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This grasping-at-straws situation came to fruition during the FOXSports.com Experts’ Fantasy Draft for the upcoming baseball season (click here for John Halpin’s take on the results). Jeff Erickson, a founder of RotoWire and one of the fantasy industry’s titans, triggered widespread bewilderment with his selection of Milwaukee outfielder and 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun in the third round of the draft. Yes, that Braun, the one believed to be suspended the first 50 games of the 2012 campaign thanks to testing positive for raised levels of testosterone. Certainly Mr. Erickson knew of this mandated absence, leaving one to deduce that Jeff imagined Braun to be worthy of his early-round pick despite missing, at minimum, a third of the season. That, or Jeff wanted to flaunt his fantasy prowess by winning the league with a self-imposed degree of difficulty. Whatever the aspiration behind this endeavor, it was clear by the response that Braun failed to earn third-round status in many of the members’ minds.

But was Braun’s third-round procurement that much of a reach? Banished from the ball field for the better part of two months seemingly would negate this concept. To develop a better perception of Braun’s worth, we need to settle on a projected production for his abbreviated season. Using a forecast from the simulation site WhatIfSports.com, an idea of Braun’s expected output was achieved off the basis of 421 plate appearances:

Home runs and RBI are fairly easy figures to corral, but it’s hard to beat those power numbers coupled with Braun’s hearty average, OBP and steals. Jeff’s strategy dictates an average outfielder holding down the fort during Braun’s sabbatical before reaping the benefits in June. A proponent of this approach would argue that the combination of a 50-contest dosage of a mediocre player and 100-plus games of a first-round talent like Braun equates to a third-round harvest. And on the surface, this reasoning appears sound.

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Alas, there’s too much ammo in the counterargument’s arsenal to concur with this claim. A school of thought that’s generally accepted states the early rounds of a draft (rounds 1-5) act as a foundation for a fantasy team. If one of these proverbial pillars is gone from the get-go, it puts an unfair onus on the rest of the squad. As these initial draftees possess a higher amount of responsibility, choosing a player with a large volume of risk is ill-advised. In a similar note, unlike an injured athlete, Braun will be unable to be placed on the DL, forcing his proprietor to waste a roster spot on a player that won’t be in uniform. There’s also the matter of a lack of lineup protection, as Prince Fielder is expected to depart the Brew Crew. Oh, and let’s address the white elephant while we are at it: how will Braun perform sans (alleged) illegal enhancers?

To give the selection context, nine outfielders were picked before Braun went late in the third round. Further illuminating the circumstances, the list of the six subsequent outfielders taken in the draft with their 2012 forecast:

By this prognosis, Braun is more valuable than Gordon or Bourn for the upcoming year, although both outfielders have a stronger support base in their lineup than the Brewer Basher. However, not only do Bruce, Crawford, Holliday and Cruz project as better picks, but other players at the position like Drew Stubbs, Desmond Jennings and Jason Heyward (all whom were selected in the middle rounds of the draft) have higher upside with a smaller amount of risk than Braun.

So where should Braun fall in fantasy drafts? In order to balance the level of hazard with the actual return, the four-time All-Star is slotted as a late fifth-round pick to an early seventh-round selection. Even at this juncture, envision a wave of Bronx cheers from your cohorts. But with the modus operandi of maximizing the value of your selections, Braun fits the surroundings of this environment.