Rodgers, Foster lead list for 2012

Albert Einstein once warned, “Never think of the future – it comes soon enough.” While I usually condemn disputing the guidance of men whose surnames are synonymous with “genius,” I think our friend AE’s advice is invalid in the endeavor of distinguishing keepers for the 2012 fantasy football season. So before we put a wrap on the 2011 year, let’s pause to analyze and examine which players can be used as cornerstones for the next fantasy campaign.

Quarterbacks

Keepers: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford
Reason: Running backs were historically hailed as the foundations for fantasy teams, but in an era where passing is paramount and split-committee backfields are the norm, it’s the signal caller spot that reigns supreme in the roto world. This sentiment was evidenced by the aforementioned quarterbacks occupying the top five spots in standard scoring leagues during the 2011 campaign.

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While few qualms will be raised against the quartet of Rodgers, Newton, Brady and Brees, the inclusion of Stafford may raise eyebrows. Certainly, a horrid four-game stretch in the middle of the season in which Stafford tossed 10 interceptions compared to eight touchdowns sours in his proprietors’ minds, and an immense amount of carnage inflicted by the former Georgia Bulldog came in the last three weeks of the season (1,284 yards, 12 touchdowns), somewhat skewing his season’s statistical output. Still, for a player that entered 2011 with just 13 career starts, hard to hate on 41 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards, no?

Outside looking in: Michael Vick, Peyton Manning
Reason: Vick played in more games, passed for more yards and owned a better yards-per-carry mark than his remarkable 2010 campaign. So why was the Philly field general a disappointment this year? The issue is three-pronged: a lack of ball security (18 turnovers in 2011 compared to a scant nine a season ago), a cutback on carries (76 rushes this year versus 100 carries in 2010) and a regression in end-zone excursions (21 aerial scores plus nine rushing touchdowns in 2010; just 19 overall trips to paydirt in 2011). Add in the vulnerability of his health and it’s a no-brainer: Vick fails to qualify for keeper status.

As for four-time MVP Manning, too much ambiguity on his injury rehabilitation and playing destination for the perennial Pro Bowler to merit keeper distinction. If he gets a preseason game or two under his belt and displays the celebrated deftness and command that we have come to expect from him, Manning would likely warrant an early-round selection, albeit with a relatively-high amount of risk, in 2012 fantasy drafts. Until we reach that threshold, Manning is a stay-away. A sad day, indeed, as this marks the first time that Manning is undeserving of this honor.

Running backs

Keepers: Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew
Reason: Almost unfathomable that a meager four backs qualified for this standing. Worse, one could make the case that MJD’s increased workload in 2011 frightens to rekindle injury issues suffered by the Jaguar in 2010, thus rendering him unfit for this list. However, Jones-Drew gets the nod for leading the league with 1,606 yards while contributing another 374 yards off 43 receptions in the passing game. His good-but-not great total of eight rushing touchdowns and the underwhelming nature of Blaine Gabbert’s, um, “Gabbertness” may scare off owners, yet don’t deter or temper your enthusiasm for Jones-Drew in 2012.

Trying to ascertain the identity of next season’s first overall selection is a slippery slope at this juncture of the calendar; nevertheless, the leaders in the clubhouse are Foster, McCoy and Rice. McCoy’s higher touchdown accumulation makes a claim for the Eagles back, but the duel dexterity of Rice and Foster in the passing game knocks McCoy to the third spot in my initial ranking. Rice’s stats exceeded Foster’s production; then again, Rice played in all 16 Baltimore contests compared to Foster’s 13 games (in reality, just 12, as Week 2’s outing against Miami was shortened by injury). Managers may fret that the emergence of Ben Tate hampers Foster’s value; not only is that apprehension a misnomer, but the presence of Tate actually keeps Foster fresh, allowing the All-Pro back to perform at a higher efficiency. In short: Foster earns the nod over Rice for the No. 1 overall spot next year.

Wild card: Marshawn Lynch
Reason: No one at the position was as dependable or steadfast in the second half as Lynch. In eight games during November and December, the Skittles aficionado posted 855 yards and nine touchdowns, adding 15 receptions for 124 yards and a score in the Seattle aerial attack. Plus, you can’t put on a price on rooting for a man with the moniker of “Beast Mode.” Alas, for whatever reason, Lynch’s rejuvenation doesn’t emit that notion of replication that is imperative to the keeper process. In deeper leagues, feel free to lockdown Lynch, but in formats with 10 or fewer teams, the Seahawk may not earn this accolade.

Outside looking in: Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles
Reason: Injuries to Charles and Peterson exclude their entry in this catalog. I’m not as concerned with Forte’s sprained MCL, as the Bears back has expressed his desire to play in the Pro Bowl. What does cause anxiety is Forte’s simmering contract dispute, which could correlate to a holdout leading to Chris Johnson-like repercussions. Speaking of Johnson, I’ve heard that an entire offseason and training camp will restore the beleaguered rusher to his CJ2K days, but he’s burned too many bridges to buy into that premise. For Turner, he just submitted his third season of 1,300 yards or better in the last four years, and has racked up 50 touchdowns in that time span. Somehow, despite this consistency, Turner is always left out when discussing the upper echelon of NFL running backs. Unfortunately, I think his massive workload (635 carries in the past two campaigns) rears its ugly head in some capacity next season, leaving Turner as the last cut in our keeper inventory.

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Wide receivers

Keepers: Calvin Johnson
Reason: The term “roller coaster” wouldn’t be the first description when conjuring images of Detroit’s dynamic wideout, yet closer examination of Johnson’s game logs fit the description. Commencing with a sizzling start in the first four games (24 receptions, 321 yards, eight touchdowns), Johnson actually increased his yardage harvest (483) in the next four contests, albeit with a slight decrease in touchdowns (three). Alas, the next five games evidenced a disconcerting diminution from Megatron, pulling in 25 catches for 317 yards and a score, which happened to coincide with the homestretch of the fantasy regular season and the opening rounds of the playoffs (to be fair, this corresponded to Stafford’s troubles). For those that weathered the storm, Johnson rewarded his owners with a display of domination in the final three weeks, wreaking havoc amongst opposing secondaries with 24 receptions for 560 yards and four trips to the Promised Land. The final damage: 96 receptions, 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns. Consistency it was not, but a bloodbath nevertheless from Johnson in 2011.

Wild card: Wes Welker
Reason: In PPR leagues, it should be a foregone conclusion that Welker is bestowed keeper prestige. But Welker’s lack of a long-term deal is perplexing. The consensus in New England is the diminutive slot receiver will return to the Pats in 2012. If this is the case, why was linebacker Jerod Mayo rewarded a contract extension in December but not Welker? And if he does leave Boston, how much is Welker’s worth affected without Brady? Monitor the development closely.

Outside looking in: Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin
Reason: My ethos on receivers: they can be found. For those needing further enlightenment, Cruz and Nelson served as elite fantasy contributors this season despite ranking outside the top 40 at their position during the preseason. I believe that White and neophyte Julio Jones will not only co-exist, but that Jones’ presence can elevate White’s play; just don’t think he’s worthy of being a keeper this offseason. The opacity under center for Arizona knocks Fitzgerald from these graces. I don’t think many had Harvin penciled in this discussion, but depending on the severity of AP’s injury, Harvin could see extended opportunities in Minnesota’s offense next season.

Tight ends

Keepers: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham
Reason: Self-explanatory. The discrepancy in output between the two and their tight-end brethren was wider than the Grand Canyon. Both still young and blessed with talented arms directing their respective offenses, Gronk and Graham should be fantasy factors for years to come.

Outside looking in: Brandon Pettigrew, Jason Witten
Reason: After an auspicious start (27 catches, 366 yards and a touchdown), Witten failed to come to fruition, held without a touchdown grab in his final six games. And while Pettigrew won’t earn keeper credit, it’s worth noting the Lions tight end finished third in receptions at the position with 83 catches. If he can improve on adding to his touchdown count, Pettigrew can be a top-five tight end in 2012.

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