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Moving the chains: Portis the early MVP

by Derek VanRiper, RotoWire


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Updated: November 7, 2008, 4:55 PM EST
If there were a vast and incredible database tracking the amount of time we've each invested into various aspects of our life, mine would break down something like this:

  • 4,234,038 minutes sleeping
  • 529,260 minutes eating
  • 61,440 minutes of work just for the sake of purchasing gas for my car
  • 39,780 minutes watching the Packers
  • 2,550 minutes pondering the NFL's overtime rules
  • 2,375 minutes pondering the legitimacy of the BCS
  • 240 minutes eating apple pie
  • 5 minutes waiting in line casting ballots for American Presidents

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By comparison, it's a pretty small chunk of my lifetime to date, but when you convert minutes to hours (42.5) and hours to days (quickly approaching two), it's enough to speed the aging process when you consider the maddening losses involving item number three on the aforementioned list. In fact, when I go through a few days of missed shaving opportunities, the hints of gray are already starting to shine through Irish red. This also reflects very highly on the polling places I've been registered to vote at in Madison, which have already included - but are not limited to - a zoo and a church. I hear that "zoo" can be pretty allusive on your lifetime polling place bingo card, so I like the direction I'm headed. Sadly, the wait for a free scoop of ice cream courtesy of Ben & Jerry's would have easily quadrupled my cumulative waiting time to vote, so I'll fork over the $5 next time I'm jonesing for some Phish Food.

The NFL's competition committee has to at least consider the issue of changing the overtime rules on a yearly basis. I would speculate that there's some form of data this group relies on to make their decision, and that said data hasn't demonstrated a gross bias toward teams winning the coin flip and scoring on their first possession enough times where it's clearly an inadequate system. Hence, we've managed to hold onto this method for breaking ties since 1974.

In fantasy, ties are often accepted as part of the game (it's much easier to avoid them if you allow decimals in your scoring system). I do not propose this as anything resembling a viable solution to the issue at hand. We certainly do not want to create more ties, and it would be ideal if we could simply remove them from the equation entirely.

The ramifications of changing the overtime format would create some interesting debates for fantasy leagues - namely, how would you want to handle the extra stats if the NFL were to adopt something similar to the college system, where teams alternate possessions from the opposition's 25-yard-line? Eli Manning's six-TD performance against Arkansas in the seven-OT marathon back in 2001 was the byproduct of five scores after regulation. Clearly, fantasy owners shouldn't be equally rewarded for bloated production beyond the first 60 minutes of the games, but I would argue that overtime stats shouldn't count at all if the league's format changes.

By my count, nine NFL games have gone into overtime this season. Of those games, four of them have been won on the first possession by the team that won the coin flip. Three times, the team that had the ball first won on a later possession and just once, has the team that lost the toss ended up with a chance to possess the ball and scored on its first opportunity. The ninth game, for those keeping track, was the Arizona/Dallas game in Week 6, where the Cardinals won by recovering a blocked punt in the end zone on Dallas' first possession. In short, the team winning the coin toss is 7-2 in overtime games this season. The outcome that I think many proponents of the current system overlook, is that even if a defense manages to prevent the coin-flip winners from scoring on their first possession, they're not adequately rewarded for playing good defense.

1. According to Football Outsiders, the median average drive length when looking at the season-long data from all 32 teams suggests about a 30-yard average push on a given possession. So the average offense - receiving the ball first, should theoretically push the ball from their own 22-yard-line (the current average starting position) to at least mid-field.

2. Of the four teams that have lost the coin toss and still been lucky enough to have an overtime possession, the average starting field position is their own 25.5-yard line. While that is actually better than average starting place for the nine teams that won the toss (their own 22.2-yard line) - and astonishingly all possessed the ball - ask NFL coaches if they'd rather have three yards extra with 50-60 percent chance of getting the ball, or if they'd just like to have the ball 100 percent of the time without those three yards. If you want to average in the "zeroes" for the four teams that did not score a defensive or special teams touchdown as Arizona did, you're looking at an average field position of the 12.8-yard line.

3. Punt returns are riskier plays than kickoff returns, so the receiving team is more likely to take a conservative approach (i.e. fair catch, extra protection) during the play in which they get the ball. There's also a greater risk for a turnover - since muffing a punt is often more costly than mishandling a kickoff.

Look, overtime coin flips in the NFL aren't the world's greatest injustice - not even close - but it doesn't make sense to bypass a sensible solution when we've seen it in action - without hiccups - for several years now.

Just as some games have gone in my favor - Brett Favre's 82-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings against the Broncos last season - others have gone equally sour (Sunday's loss to the Titans). If two teams have played their way into a deadlock after 60 minutes, they should be given equal opportunity to play their way out of it.

MVP Talk

In case you missed it, the Week 10 chatter about the league's MVP has heated up a bit. Many ballots will feature these options:

Drew Brees
Clinton Portis
Kurt Warner

More often than not, MVP awards end up in the trophy case of the player with the best stats on one of the league's best teams, while some use them as a measuring stick for Canton.

Here's where I'm at:

  • Brees' Saints have dealt with injuries to Marques Colston and Reggie Bush - among others - but they're currently bringing up the rear in the NFC South. You've got to win be the league's most valuable player, even if your team might be winless without you. I own Brees in a few leagues this season and there's a growing gap between he and the rest of the field at quarterback. The pieces are definitely in place for Brees to win this award at some point in the next couple of season - this just doesn't look like the year.
  • Averaging 5.0 yards per carry on a surprising 6-3 Washington club, Portis appears to be the most valuable player in this group at least on the surface, given his team's record and his place as the league's leading rusher entering Week 10. The Redskins pass the ball well enough to be effective, as Jason Campbell looks pretty comfortable in Jim Zorn's offense. There are plenty of naysayers out there who will say that running backs can't win the MVP award, and that we should pick the league's most valuable quarterback. MVP = MVQ? Nope, sorry. It's not a forgone conclusion.
  • The Cards have a three-game lead in the NFC West, due more in part to the weakness of the division than to Warner's big passing numbers. I'd definitely entertain arguments that they wouldn't have as much of a lead if Matt Leinart were under center, but they'd still be in first place and I highly doubt anyone would be taking about Leinart as an MVP candidate if he had the same record but the Cards were more reliant on Tim Hightower and the running game. The NFC West is the NFL's version of the Pac-10. If Warner wins the MVP, go ahead and hand the Heisman over to Mark Sanchez.

Verdict: If it's just these three guys on the ballot, I'm going with Portis here. Still, I think Washington could be a good team if Ladell Betts had to step in as the starter at some point - he looked very good when called upon down the stretch in 2006. My "sleeper" MVP candidate is Tennessee's Chris Johnson. The defense is excellent as a group, but no one player stands out enough for this award (Albert Haynesworth fans may disagree). Given their lack of other weapons at the skill positions, the Titans' offense would be in big trouble if anything were to happen to their speedy rookie back. LenDale White's a good complementary part, but there's no way he'd keep the chains moving consistently and help limit the strain on game-managing quarterback Kerry Collins. I often think of the Most Valuable Player on a team or within a league as the guy that makes the other players around him better. That's exactly what Johnson has done for the Titans this season.

Article first appeared 11/6/08

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