by Mike Harmon

Comment

A total of 15 running backs eclipsed the hallowed 1,000-yard barrier in 2008, the lowest number of backs to do so in the past eight years. Granted, fewer backs have done so, year after year, since 2001. What is in store for us in 2009? I doubt that we see a rebirth of the single-back set, as the two and three-back offenses with a bulldozing goal-line back appear to be the norm.

As I return to the projections world, I present the top 15 rushing yardage leaders of 2009. The reigning champion, Adrian Peterson, leads the pack once again. Many of the usual studs make the list along with a couple new entries.

Lock and load!

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota

I'm still not pushing Peterson to the top of my ranking list, but he's the king of this category. He rushed for 76 or more yards in 15 of his 16 games in 2008, and the likely addition of Brett Favre to the mix should help stretch the field and open additional running lanes. He registered 10 100-yard games in 2008 and has averaged 103.4 yards per game in two seasons for the Vikings.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,760 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,812 yards

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta

Turner was clearly one of our players to watch for 2008, his first year out of LaDainian Tomlinson's super-sized shadow. He responded brilliantly and posted an astonishing rushing total of 1,699 yards. Turner registered eight 100-yard games last year, including 200-yard efforts to bookend the season. He was shut down on occasion (six games with 70 yards or fewer), but I expect to see a more consistent Atlanta offense in Matt Ryan's second season. The team added tight end Tony Gonzalez this offseason, and Ryan has been receiving rave reviews.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,699 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,528 yards

3. Clinton Portis, Washington

Consistency, thy name is Portis! Despite obvious deficiencies in the Washington offense, Portis nearly reached the 1,500-yard mark for the fourth time in his career. With the exception of his injury-shortened 2006 season, he has averaged 1,446 rushing yards. I'm still concerned about the Washington passing attack, but Portis has the ability to run through a wall.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,487 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,406 yards

4. Frank Gore, San Francisco

I'm banging the drum for a revival in San Francisco with Mike Singletary's desire to produce a power running game. Although Gore's totals have dipped in back-to-back years, I'm expecting a charge back toward his 2006 heights. That year, Gore ripped off big run after big run en route to nearly 1,700 rushing yards. If the 49ers can get consistent production from Shaun Hill and draft pick Michael Crabtree in the passing game, Gore's numbers may soar.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,036 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,384 yards

5. Steve Slaton, Houston

My 2008 man-crush award winner raised more than a few eyebrows as a rookie. Slaton produced five 100-yard games and eight efforts with at least 80 yards. Interestingly, Slaton only topped 20 carries on five occasions. The Texans expect Slaton to play a larger role in his sophomore season, and Matt Schaub's development should open more running lanes.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,282 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,338 yards

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina

Williams' carries were sporadic early in the 2008 season, but he was among the leading candidates for a Fantasy MVP award when the season ended. He generated seven 100-yard games in his final nine starts despite the presence of rookie Jonathan Stewart. I expect Stewart to play a larger role in 2009, thereby dropping Williams a few notches in this category. However, Williams' breakaway speed keeps him among the leaders.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,515 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,327 yards

7. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego

Ordinal out of range I firmly believe that rumors of Tomlinson's imminent demise are greatly exaggerated. His 1,110 yards last year marked a career-low as the former MVP and perennial fantasy hero battled through injury. I anticipate a strong bounce-back season from a healthy Tomlinson. Remember, the defense was also impacted tremendously by injuries to Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie. As such, the offense went into pass-happy mode.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,110 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,315 yards

8. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville

Jones-Drew finally gets his crack at the No. 1 slot, running unopposed with Fred Taylor off to New England. His rushing average was the lowest of his third-year career (4.2 yards per carry), but it was still a respectable average despite the myriad of injuries and performance issues that decimated the Jacksonville offense. Jones-Drew has been a touchdown machine for years, and I believe that he explodes into another level of performance.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 824 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,303 yards

9. Matt Forte, Chicago

Forte did it all for the Bears as a rookie, providing a huge push in the power running game while serving as the leading receiver. Interestingly, he only topped 80 rushing yards six times during his freshman year (three 100-yard games). He averaged 19.75 carries per game and will benefit from the arrival and downfield aerial threat of Jay Cutler.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,238 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,271 yards

10. Kevin Smith, Detroit

Smith turned in a phenomenal rookie season (976 yards) despite not getting much of a workload until the second half of the season. He racked up only 29.4 percent of his carries during the season's first eight games. Smith then carried the ball at least 20 times in six of his final eight starts. I'm optimistic that we see an up-tick in production from the offense in the new regime. Smith is still being drafted as a late-second back or early third back, but he could definitely outperform.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 976 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,239 yards

11. Ryan Grant, Green Bay

Grant was at the head of everyone's 2008 "Bust" candidate lists. Even though Grant only scored four times, he still amassed 1,203 yards behind Aaron Rodgers' breakthrough performance. Grant rushed for at least 75 yards in nine games, topping 100 yards four times. Improvement from the defense should aid Grant's performance as well.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,203 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,229 yards

12. Steven Jackson, St. Louis

The big concern with Jackson obviously concerns his health. He's appeared in 12 games in back-to-back seasons, but still narrowly topped 1,000 yards in both years. He has eclipsed 1,000 yards in four consecutive seasons, averaging 1,154.5 yards per year. With a more consistent from the offensive line, a full season of health from Marc Bulger and his young receivers, and staying sound himself, Jackson is a potential beast.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,042 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,186 yards

13. Chris Johnson, Tennessee

Johnson assumed the lead role in the run-heavy Tennessee offense, taking control between the 20s while LenDale White took the goal-line plunges. He averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry, amassing a huge rushing total despite topping 20 carries only once in his 15 games. Therein lays the other gem in the game-by-game log. Johnson missed the final game against the Colts and had another game in which he rushed for only eight yards.

White has slimmed down this offseason and may take on a larger role in the backfield, but I still expect huge things from the second-year star.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,228 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,162 yards

14. Thomas Jones, New York Jets

Jones' contract status has been the subject of much debate this offseason, but I fully expect to see him ready to lead the Jets this fall. He's produced four consecutive 1,100-yard seasons and narrowly missed establishing a new career mark last year. Jones amassed this total despite rushing for fewer than 60 yards on five occasions. The insertion of Kellen Clemens or Mark Sanchez portends to a large emphasis on the running game behind a tremendous offensive line. Leon Washington and Shonn Greene will eat into his workload (and set him below the 300-carry threshold), but it's still Jones in the lead.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 1,312 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,144 yards

15. Ronnie Brown, Miami

Brown amassed 916 rushing yards in his first year back from surgery, an impressive total and perhaps more than most fantasy owners and NFL fans expected. He rushed for 70 or more yards only four times last season, and we can reasonably expect a more consistent effort in his second year removed from surgery. The arrival of Pat White will certainly add new wrinkles to this offense and potentially open more running room for Brown.
2008 Rushing Yardage Total: 916 yards
2009 Rushing Yardage Projection: 1,096 yards