by Mike Harmon

Comment

Teaming tremendous game plans and dominant personnel with durability (thank you, offensive lines), Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and the enigmatic Brett Favre regularly climbed to the top of the yardage and touchdown categories.

The 2008 season saw Brady injured in Week 1, and we later found out that Favre played much of the second half of the season with a serious injury. Manning remained his usual unflappable self, posting his 11th straight season with at least 27 touchdowns.

Can these veteran options and fantasy mainstays, such as Kurt Warner, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer (how's his health?), reclaim the top of the leaderboard from young gunners such as Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers?

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Fantasy owners who bet big on Brady in 2008 had their championship dreams dashed (or at least hampered considerably) when the New England quarterback was felled to injury in Week 1. Brady was coming off a storybook season during which he'd thrown 50 touchdown passes. And, while nobody expected him to duplicate such a fabulous season, the fact that Brady had taken every snap for six straight years had us optimistic of another big year alongside Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

During his five non-record breaking seasons, Brady averaged 25.8 passing touchdowns.
2008 Touchdown Total: Zero
2009 Touchdown Projection: 39

2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Brees certainly is loving life in New Orleans. Sure, he'd like to put a few more "Ws" on the board, but he certainly can't be disappointed with his individual performance. In 2008, Brees threw a career-best 34 touchdowns despite injuries to Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. During the past five years, Brees has averaged 27.8 passing touchdowns.

He returns his entire receiving corps with a two-headed running game of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (sleeper?). Can he top last year's total? Let's see whether the defense shows up.
2008 Touchdown Total: 34
2009 Touchdown Projection: 35

3. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals

The venerable quarterback of the Cardinals is back for another run. Following last season's charge to the Super Bowl, Warner is clearly excited to see his phenomenal receiving trio return intact. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston will continue to work their magic downfield, splitting defensive backs and giving defensive coordinators fits. There are obviously concerns about his age and durability, but his 57 touchdown passes in the past two years help mitigate those fears.
2008 Touchdown Total: 30
2009 Touchdown Projection: 32

4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers had a phenomenal first season and successfully emerged from Favre's shadow. He tossed 28 touchdown passes, a total that ranked fourth in the NFL. The Packers have ample receiving targets for Rodgers, and any concerns about his ability to connect with Greg Jennings have clearly dissipated. I anticipate that we see a more consistent production level from Rodgers in his second year as a starter.
2008 Touchdown Total: 28
2009 Touchdown Projection: 31

5t. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

Manning has been one of the standard bearers at the position for 11 years. Save the Jim Sorgi substitutions at the end of each season (not sure those happen in 2009), Manning takes every snap. He's averaged 30.3 passing touchdowns during his 11 NFL seasons.

There are some things in motion for 2009, including coaching changes and personnel shifts (Anthony Gonzalez in for Marvin Harrison and Donald Brown into the backfield alongside Joseph Addai). However, Manning will still work to get timing down with his targets and produce another big season.
2008 Touchdown Total: 27
2009 Touchdown Projection: 29

5t. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Rivers produced the best year of his three years as a starter. Lapses on defense and an injury to LaDainian Tomlinson forced Rivers to throw early and often, and he amassed 4,009 yards and tied for the league lead with 34 touchdowns. Rivers has averaged 25.7 passing touchdowns in three years as a starter in San Diego, and I expect more of the same this season. The healthy returns of Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie to the defense and a full season of health from Tomlinson might force his statistics to take a minor dip, but I certainly can't anticipate a freefall. (Remember, Antonio Gates was hurt for a good portion of 2008 as well.)
2008 Touchdown Total: 34
2009 Touchdown Projection: 29

7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles

Ordinal out of range The selection of Jeremy Maclin, another speedy option on the wing, had to make McNabb smile on draft day. He joins a talented and quick receiving corps that should keep Andy Reid's offense motoring. LeSean McCoy's selection helps to keep Brian Westbrook fresh, and both players excel as receivers out of the backfield.

McNabb averaged 1.44 touchdowns passes per game and has averaged 20.7 passing touchdowns in the past nine years. The rookies are fine additions at the skill positions, but the significance of the trade that yielded Jason Peters cannot be understated. If McNabb is healthy, he should equal or better last year's efforts.

2008 Touchdown Total: 23
2009 Touchdown Projection: 26

8t. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Romo averaged two touchdown passes in his injury shortened 2008 season. He's averaged 27 touchdown passes during the past three seasons under center for the Cowboys. I'm moderately concerned about the offense and Romo's potential output following the departure of Terrell Owens. For all of his foibles, Owens still produced touchdown grabs. Jason Witten is a sure thing, but we'll need to see Roy Williams and some collection of other players to step up.
2008 Touchdown Total: 26
2009 Touchdown Projection: 24

8t. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

I'm excited about the reports from Cincinnati about the arm strength being exhibited by Palmer in workouts. Although T.J. Houshmandzadeh has moved on to Seattle, Palmer has a new roommate in Chad Ochocinco and a strong second wideout option in Laveranues Coles. The wildcards in the equation for me are Chris Henry (working hard for the No. 3 role) and rookie tight end Chase Coffman, the first true pass-catching tight end that the Bengals have had during Palmer's tenure.

Don't forget. Palmer had averaged 28.7 touchdown passes in the three seasons prior to last year's injury-shortened campaign.
2008 Touchdown Total: 3
2009 Touchdown Projection: 24

10t. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

He generated five multi-touchdown games and, at one point, sported a nine-game streak during which he passed for at least 200 yards. Michael Turner's goal-line vulturism still concerns me, but I'd be remiss if I failed to acknowledge the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons will open up the playbook more in Ryan's second year, and I expect to see a more consistent scoring effort in 2009.
2008 Touchdown Total: 16
2009 Touchdown Projection: 23

10t. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

I know that he doesn't have the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver (although we're growing more intrigued about the potential of Devin Hester), but it's hard to cast Cutler off this list. He has a tremendous receiving option out of the backfield in Matt Forte and a potential star in Greg Olsen (nice year in 2008, but could be more). Now, it's a function of getting another option to rise up to complement these targets. I do believe that the Bears stay true to form and run the ball frequently with Forte, but Cutler didn't leave his arm in Denver.
2008 Touchdown Total: 25
2009 Touchdown Projection: 23

12. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

Mike Holmgren certainly didn't expect to see his final year in Seattle go down so miserably. Pretty much everybody got hurt at some point, including Hasselbeck, who appeared in only seven games. I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back campaign in 2009. The Seahawks brought in Houshmandzadeh this offseason to team with Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and second-year tight end John Carlson. Hasselbeck averaged 23.6 touchdown passes in the five seasons prior to last year's injury-riddled campaign.
2008 Touchdown Total: 5
2009 Touchdown Projection: 22

13t. Brett Favre, FA

I found myself typing the abbreviation for Minnesota in the team slot above. I'm holding off for the moment in the interests of journalistic standards, but let's not kid ourselves. Barring a setback in his throwing regimen, Favre will be lining up under center for the Vikings this fall.

He has thrown at least 18 touchdown passes in each season he's been in the NFL. We know that he'll battle through pain and answer the call each Sunday. The bevy of receiving weapons at his disposal, not to mention the presence of Adrian Peterson, portends to solid touchdown totals. Remember, I'm not talking about his overall value or the negativity of interceptions here.
2008 Touchdown Total: 22
2009 Touchdown Projection: 20

13t. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Given the attention to defense and commitment to the running game in Pittsburgh, fantasy owners shouldn't expect a return to Roethlisberger's phenomenal 2007 output. However, we did see tremendous growth from Santonio Holmes through the end of the season and the playoffs. That has me optimistic for a moderate bounce-back from last year's smallish fantasy numbers. Roethlisberger has averaged 17.3 touchdowns in his other four NFL seasons.
2008 Touchdown Total: 17
2009 Touchdown Projection: 20

15. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Garrard quietly put up solid numbers in 2008 despite obvious issues on an injury ravaged offensive line and weak efforts from his receiving corps. He's in a better position for 2009. Obviously, health on the offensive line is paramount, but I'm also excited about the addition of veteran receiver Torry Holt. Holt offers a reliable target that was lacking in 2008, and we know that MJD gives him a bulldozing receiver out of the backfield.
2008 Touchdown Total: 15
2009 Touchdown Projection: 19