by Roger Rotter

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Free Draft Guide

Franchise makers

The signal callers who are the most likely to average passing stats of 250 yards and two touchdowns are Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Each can rely on a strong offensive line and a top group of receivers to produce 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns in the same season. Though Brady missed nearly all of last year, he joins Brees and Manning as durable quarterbacks who consistently play 16-game seasons.

Philip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers and Donovan McNabb comprise the next best class of fantasy quarterbacks. All four can help clinch weekly fantasy victories by compiling a handful of 300-yard, three-touchdown games. Only Warner and McNabb's injury history, and both Rivers and Rodgers' lack of a great lengthy pro track record prevent them from joining the elite. Still, drafting one of these seven quarterbacks will give owners a weekly edge at the position.

Don't Sleep On

For good reason, much talk about Seattle drafting a quarterback in the first round of the NFL draft to replace Matt Hasselbeck went unheeded. Though he battled injuries last season, Hasselbeck has been given a reliable No. 1 receiver with T.J. Houshmandzadeh. He'll also be working with proven wideout Deion Branch and enticing No. 3 receiver Nate Burleson. Add solid tight end John Carlson, and Hasselbeck will be throwing to four legitimate receivers. Already owning a strong history of producing solid stats, Hasselbeck has the skills, experience and talented teammates to be among the top 10 in both yards and touchdowns again.

Matt Cassel surprisingly impacted the fantasy scene last year and looks to do the same in Kansas City. Former New England and new Kansas City GM Scott Pioli will help ensure Cassel's transition goes smoothly. His new No. 1 wideout, Dwayne Bowe, is a rising star and one of the game's most talented young receivers. He offers the big-play ability that Randy Moss provided Cassel in New England. Underrated Bobby Engram battled injuries in Seattle last season, but he has the experience and skills to fulfill the extensive role that Wes Welker provided for Cassel. In addition, former 2008 first-rounder Brandon Albert has the talent to effectively protect his blindside. Cassel will also have the services of star running back Larry Johnson, who is one of the game's top receiving backs when healthy.

Despite being injured last year, Carson Palmer still has the receiving targets of Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco to produce top 10 stats in both yards and touchdowns. Adding dominating tackle Andre Smith in the first round to protect his blindside will only help ensure his health and give him more time to throw.

Though questions abound about who will effectively protect his blindside, Trent Edwards will benefit from an upgraded receiving corps with the addition of Terrell Owens. Having consistent deep threat Lee Evans as a receiving teammate will help open lanes for Owens to gain significant yardage after the catch.

If it's all about the system as some coaches insist, then Josh McDaniels will transform Kyle Orton into a Pro Bowl quarterback. Take little risk, though, and draft Orton late as a backup. He will be working with excellent No. 1 wideout Brandon Marshall (if he stays in Denver) and nifty No. 2 receiver Eddie Royal. Add first-round rookie Knowshon Moreno for run support, and Orton has the skill players to post big stats.

If he's given a chance to start in Minnesota, Sage Rosenfels has already proven that he can be a proficient passer. He's worth picking in the late rounds as a backup who can post starter stats when he's provided the opportunity.

Value Buys

Chicago's wide receiver group lacks the fanfare of Denver's wideouts, but Jay Cutler still has one of the top tight end duos in Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. He'll also be passing to excellent all-around running back Matt Forte, who led all runners in receptions as a rookie last year.

Ben Roethlisberger's passing scores were cut nearly in half from 32 to 17 last year. If he can stay free of injuries and his offensive line improves by reducing sacks, look for Roethlisberger to pass for more yardage and touchdowns, and finish in the top 10 in both categories.

Matt Ryan's value increases just by the virtue of adding the NFL's most prolific tight end in history with Tony Gonzalez. He'll be throwing to a talented receiving trio of Roddy White, Michael Jenkins and Gonzalez. Add a strong running game led by Michael Turner, and watch Ryan complete many play-action passes to Gonzalez over the middle. Ryan will also connect with deep passes to speedy White and Jenkins as they outrun single coverage.

When he's healthy, Matt Schaub has the potential to consistently throw for 250 or more yards and multiple touchdowns. He's working with one of the top No. 1 wideouts Andre Johnson and sleek receiver Kevin Walter, along with big-play, all-around runner Steve Slaton and competent receiving tight end Owen Daniels.

Buyer Beware

Playing well in multiple golf tournaments in the offseason is impressive, but Tony Romo's hobby could be taking away valuable time from improving as a quarterback. Regardless, Roy Williams isn't a proven No. 1 receiver after only recording only one 1,000-yard season and scoring no more than eight touchdowns in his five seasons.

Relying largely on unproven wide receivers and a rookie wideout to help produce solid stats make Eli Manning as a risky starter. His passing stats will also be negatively affected by the Giants' offensive philosophy. New York will continue to utilize its excellent ground attack and swarming defense to produce wins. It consistently won't engage in high-scoring aerial attacks to emerge victorious and boost Manning's numbers.

It's unlikely rookie quarterbacks like Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Co. will be weekly fantasy starters in their first year. Peyton Manning was an exception who threw for 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns in 1998 as a rookie, but he also had 28 interceptions. Last year, Ryan was highly touted for his excellent rookie season, but he was just adequate in passing stats with 3,440 yards (13th) and 16 touchdowns (16th).

Final thoughts

Drafting a top quarterback is a risky proposition, but it usually must be done to avoid having a mediocre starter. Many recent big-name failures chosen in the early rounds have littered the fantasy field, including Brady, Palmer, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger. But Brees, Manning and Brady are worth high picks in the first few rounds with their great achievements, significant roles in offense and talented teammates. Drafting Rivers, Warner, Rodgers and McNabb offer the next best choices for similar reasons.

Waiting on the right undervalued quarterback will pay dividends, too. Last year, many owners were able to select Rivers and Cutler as a backup or even as a fantasy starter in the mid-rounds. They ultimately finished as top 10 fantasy quarterbacks and provided great draft value in Rounds 7-10. This year, Cutler, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Schaub, Hasselbeck and Palmer are the most likely to be available in the later rounds. They will serve as solid weekly fantasy starters. If those disappear, draft Edwards or Orton among the final picks. They are No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks who have the potential to be fantasy starters in their promising offenses.