by Mike Harmon

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I'll admit to having done a small victory dance. After all, it means that we're just a few short weeks away from the beginning of training camp. Soon enough, players, coaches and fans will flock to small towns all over the country. Players will, for a short time, return to dormitory life, devouring playbooks while routinely engaging in video game competitions.

Until then, I'm turning back to the abacus and busting out another round of statistical projections. The highlight shows are enamored with long touchdown passes and celebrating the exploits of the single digit-wearing signal callers. I appreciate watching Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss and other receiving heroes dominate downfield — don't get me wrong — but I'm still a lover of smash-mouth football at heart. I present this year's projected top 15 in the rushing touchdown category. Let's start in Jacksonville, where our longtime fantasy hero takes on a full-time role.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jones-Drew has been a fantasy football hero since joining the Jaguars in 2006, bulldozing defensive linemen for a head-turning total of 34 rushing touchdowns. He amassed that mighty total despite working in tandem with Fred Taylor. Taylor has shuffled off to New England, leaving Jones-Drew as the primary ball carrier and, of course, he remains the top-notch vulture option. I'm excited about Jones-Drew receiving help from the passing game, as the offensive line is healthy (last year was a disaster) and Torry Holt was added to bolster the receiver corps.
2008 Touchdown Total: 12
2009 Touchdown Projection: 19

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

My pick for the No. 1 overall slot enjoyed a charmed introduction to the featured back position. Turner has the speed-power combination that makes him a threat to rumble to the end zone on every touch. Many fantasy football aficionados are frightened by the high carry total from 2008 and the arrival of Tony Gonzalez to support the passing game. First, Turner didn't pile up too many touches during his five years with the Chargers, so anticipating a breakdown seems premature to me. Second, Gonzalez's arrival should open more running lanes and more breaks to daylight. I do anticipate that Turner sees a drop in his touches, but Matt Ryan's development will put him in line for ample goal-line touches.
2008 Touchdown Total: 17
2009 Touchdown Projection: 16

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

While Tomlinson will likely never approach his total of 28 rushing touchdowns from 2006 again, rumors and conjecture about his imminent demise are greatly exaggerated. Tomlinson played hurt in 2008 and still amassed 11 rushing touchdowns last season, his eighth straight year with a double-digit touchdown total. Let's mark a healthy and motivated L.T. down for a ninth, shall we?
2008 Touchdown Total: 11
2009 Touchdown Projection: 14

4t. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants

Everybody loves Jacobs' size and his powerful running style. When he's on the field in short-yardage situations, it becomes must-see television. Obviously, Jacobs' upright running style is oftentimes problematic, leaving his lower legs exposed for the big hit. He established a new career mark with 15 touchdowns last year and has averaged 8.75 touchdowns per season in four years with the Giants.

The departure of Plaxico Burress will put the focus squarely on the running game to open the season. The only question is whether Jacobs holds up over a full season.
2008 Touchdown Total: 15
2009 Touchdown Projection: 13

4t. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Peterson has become the consensus No. 1 pick in most drafts (I'm still a Turner backer), as owners anticipate a run toward Eric Dickerson's rushing marks and a lot of running room with Brett Favre (presumably) under center. Peterson piled up 22 touchdowns in his first two campaigns despite frequent shifts to Chester Taylor in short-yardage situations and an inconsistent passing game. He will still shift out on occasion, but you have to be excited about the prospects for the Minnesota offense in 2009.
2008 Touchdown Total: 10
2009 Touchdown Projection: 13

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

I banged the drum for Williams last offseason, and John Fox must have heard the commotion from the beach. Alas, I can't claim to have hit the bongo circuit with Matthew McConaughey, but the message got there just the same. Williams scored 18 touchdowns last season, 14 more than he scored in 2007. More impressively, he racked up 15 of those touchdowns over the final eight weeks of the season and helped more than a few owners to fantasy glory.

I certainly don't anticipate a repeat performance of his huge touchdown total, but the Carolina offensive line remains strong and Williams has the speed to break away at any point. However, I anticipate a more consistent effort out of the passing game (more love for Steve Smith) and suspect that the contribution of a healthy Jonathan Stewart will pull away some of that end zone glory.
2008 Touchdown Total: 18
2009 Touchdown Projection: 12

7t. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Thomas was a draft-day steal last season as the afterthought in the New Orleans backfield. Sure, he didn't amass a huge yardage total (625), but it's hard to argue with his nine goal-line plunges. The high-octane Saints offense is back for another run in 2009, and while I do anticipate a split workload with Reggie Bush, the goal-line plunges are all Thomas'. He scored in five of the final six games in which he appeared.
2008 Touchdown Total: 9
2009 Touchdown Projection: 11

7t. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys

Ordinal out of range Fantasy owners who went large on Barber last year were left disappointed, as he plunged into the end zone only seven times. He'd posted back-to-back double-digit touchdown campaigns prior to last year's dip in production. With Terrell Owens off to Buffalo, I expect to see Barber and Felix Jones take on a heavier workload this season in support of Tony Romo. We clearly have to be concerned about the potential injury factor (he's been injured several times in his four-year career), but I anticipate a solid bounce-back campaign from Barber.
2008 Touchdown Total: 7
2009 Touchdown Projection: 11

7t. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans

White was a goal-line monster of the highest magnitude last season, as he and Chris Johnson ran wild behind Kerry Collins' efficiency and a stout defense. He's reportedly slimmed down nearly 30 pounds this offseason, so there are some questions about whether his power will be sapped in 2009. This isn't a Samson story. The equation employed by Jeff Fisher (run game + defense = wins) will continue in 2009, and White will bulldoze his way to the end zone frequently. He's reported to camp lighter, but he's still the powerful finisher at the painted stripe.
2008 Touchdown Total: 15
2009 Touchdown Projection: 11

10t. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Forte was the workhorse for the Chicago offense last year. He did it all for Lovie Smith's offense, battling between the 20s while handling his own goal-line work. Forte will remain a primary target for Jay Cutler given the number of questions still remaining in the Chicago receiving corps. Cutler's arrival makes Forte even more potent for 2009 and will open up more goal-line opportunities.
2008 Touchdown Total: 8
2009 Touchdown Projection: 10

10t. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions

I'm trying to be an optimist for the Lions, and Smith's prediction of a playoff berth has certainly piqued my interest. Think about it. The Lions were terrible in 2008, a gross understatement, I know. Smith didn't receive a heavy workload until the second half of the season. He still scored eight touchdowns.

I have to believe that his installation as the starter and the development of a more consistent and balanced offensive attack (not the "chuck it to Calvin and see if it sticks" of 2008) will make Smith a fantasy hero in 2009.
2008 Touchdown Total: 8
2009 Touchdown Projection: 10

10t. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Despite the goal-line vulture work of teammate LenDale White, Johnson still knocked on the door of a double-digit touchdown total. The speedy second-year back dazzled crowds and left coordinators befuddled as a rookie, using his speed-power combination to chew up turf and burst to the end zone. The formula remains the same this season, with Johnson and White combining for 35 or more touches per game and sharing the touchdown glory.
2008 Touchdown Total: 9
2009 Touchdown Projection: 10

13t. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

Raise your hand if you realized that Jackson still reached the hallowed 1,000-yard mark last season despite his own injury issues and the myriad problems in the St. Louis offense. I believe about 10 percent of you with your hands raised.

Anyway, Jackson still managed to put up a decent touchdown total (seven) despite missing four games in their entirety and parts of others and running behind a weak offensive line. The Rams addressed the offensive line this offseason, and Jackson is reportedly in great shape and ready to roll. Can he finish a full 16-game slate after missing eight games in the prior two seasons? Early drafts indicate that fantasy owners are ready to roll the dice on him again.
2008 Touchdown Total: 7
2009 Touchdown Projection: 9

13t. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

Stewart quietly amassed 10 touchdowns in his injury slowed rookie season. Of course, the jaw-dropping statistics posted by teammate DeAngelo Williams didn't help his PR campaign. The Panthers expect Stewart to be healthy to start training camp and to contribute more fully in a two-headed backfield alongside Williams. I anticipate that Stewart asserts himself in short-yardage and goal-line situations in 2009.
2008 Touchdown Total: 10
2009 Touchdown Projection: 9

15. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles

Westbrook established a new career mark with nine touchdowns in 2008. During the past three years, he's racked up 23 rushing touchdowns (37 overall) while taking on a larger role in the running game. Obviously, Westbrook always has the injury issues floating out there (his offseason ankle surgery is the large issue right now), though he normally battles through on game day. I'm excited about the fortification of the offensive line by the addition of Jason Peters, and the selection of Jeremy Maclin will help stretch the field. The addition of LeSean McCoy will keep Westbrook rested, healthy and ready to dominate.
2008 Touchdown Total: 9
2009 Touchdown Projection: 8