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Offseason QB moves: There's Cutler, then everyone else

by John Juhasz

John is an editor for the FOXSports.com fantasy group. Check out his blog and please don't be shy when leaving questions or comments.


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Updated: July 8, 2009, 4:50 PM EDT
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Greetings and salu-freaking-tations!

Are you excited that it's finally July? Do you realize we're only a few weeks away from the commencement of NFL training camps, which means preseason action is right around the corner? I understand why watching games that don't count for anything can be considered a torturous form of regular season foreplay to some, but it's also an opportunity to do some early scouting on your potential fantasy picks. Starters won't play a great deal, but your later picks arguably play a bigger role in your fantasy success than your few early studs. You need depth and need to know who is worth drafting in order to win your league. We already have tons of coverage on specific deeper sleepers and will have tons more once preseason gets underway. Stay tuned ... it's going to be a fun ride.

For now, I'm going to review the notable quarterbacks who changed addresses and may have a legit shot at taking snaps and posting decent stats next season. I'm going to break down key categories, stats, reasoning and projections for each fantasy position over the next few weeks. The operative word from above is notable, by the way — it's a waste of your time and mine to discuss guys who were signed just so they could go get buried deep on his new team's depth chart.

I left Sage Rosenfels off the list for now since the Vikings and Brett Favre are staring at each other from opposite ends of the room and giggling, as if they were inside of a gymnasium at a junior high dance. I'll get back to that situation when/if it pans out. So today, let's start out and see if one of the following guys could emerge into a Willie Beamen next season. And if you don't know what that means or have to ask ...

John Beck, Miami to Baltimore

2008 stats: No games played

Why was he signed?: As a cheap, deep insurance policy for the incumbent Joe Flacco.

Will he start?: Not unless Flacco gets injured ... or chained to a chair in his hotel room by Beck on gameday.

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Not a great deal, really. The only stats of his career came in 2007 when he had 60 completions for 559 yards, one touchdown and three picks with the Dolphins. Not a whole lot to get excited about there, but the only reason I mentioned him at all is with Kyle Boller having gone to St. Louis, Troy Smith (who hasn't shown much at the NFL level) is the only other backup they have. Beck is probably a tad bit better than Smith and more likely to see time if Flacco gets blasted by a heavy defensive tackle sometime this season. Even if that happened, I'd probably have to be bribed in order to start Beck on my team for a given week.

Matt Cassel, New England to Kansas City (trade)

2008 stats: 327-of-516, 21 TDs, 11 INTs, 3,693 yards

Why was he signed?: Because Tyler Thigpen, despite some heroic 2008 performances which probably deserved a congressional medal of honor, wasn't in new general manager Scott Pioli's long-term plans. Either that, or Pioli wanted to put his stamp on the franchise from Day 1. It's probably a combination of both, actually.

Will he start?: You don't really suppose the Chiefs would let a guy who signed a six-year deal with $36 million guaranteed sit on the bench, do you?

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Cassel is the ultimate wild card player here. He could either really blow up or have a completely dull and lifeless season since the Chiefs are still a few players away from being a few players away (on both sides of the ball) to compete. In fact, with all the needs this team has, you have to question the wisdom behind using that much money to sign a still somewhat unproven Cassel instead of someone else who could have helped at a different position, but that's another argument for another day.

It certainly doesn't help Cassel's cause that Tony Gonzalez, the greatest safety valve the world has ever seen and quite possibly the best tight end to ever play the game, has moved on and will be playing elsewhere in 2009. Dwayne Bowe is now the only receiver on the roster who will give defensive coordinators any kind of trouble, and I don't know if he's capable of carrying an offensive load by himself. Cassel may have his good days here and there, but if he manages to post 400-yard weeks like he did in New England, I'd be stunned.

Jay Cutler, Denver to Chicago (trade)

2008 stats: 384-of-616, 25 TDs, 18 INTs, 4,526 yards

Why was he signed?: To fill a glaring perennial Bears need which had arguably gone ignored for two decades. The acquisition was expensive, but also way overdue.

Will he start?: Put it this way — if he's healthy and not under center for Week 1, everyone who reads this article can bill me the next time they purchase a Chicago deep dish pizza and I'll pick up the tab. I'm serious.

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? I'm wondering if any of us will even live to see the 2009 season — the Bears finally getting around to finding a long-term solution at the quarterback position surely has to be one of the seven signs of the apocalypse.

But even with Cassel's move to Kansas City factored in, Cutler is easily the most talented quarterback among those who found new addresses last season. One encouraging sign from Cutler is the fact that he's managed to improve his touchdown production in each of his three seasons in the league (9, 20, 25). But equally discouraging is he's also continued to throw more and more picks (5, 14 and 18). Cutler gets loads of hype, but the high interception totals show he's prone to force the issue too often, and the talent level of the receiving units between Chicago and Denver isn't even comparable. Honestly, I wouldn't be terribly comfortable with him as my QB1 until he shows me otherwise, which seems to put me in the fantasy consensus minority for that issue.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati to Buffalo

2008 stats: 221-of-372, 8 TDs, 9 INTs, 1,905 yards

Why was he signed?: Because the Bills cut ties with the currently unemployed J.P. Losman and needed a backup for Trent Edwards.

Will he start?: Bills fans had better really, REALLY hope he doesn't.

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? If Edwards falls flat or gets injured, Fitzpatrick just might get a few shots here and there. But an entire galaxy of stars might have to align for that one to come to fruition.

Much more often than not, Fitzpatrick's biggest contribution will be modeling the latest Buffalo Bills winter gear while he's holding a clipboard on the sidelines. Without looking it up, I'd be surprised if he led the Bengals to more than one touchdown drive out of every six possessions the team had on average. Edwards is a big-time breakout candidate for 2009 — Fitzpatrick isn't going to stand in his way.

Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay to Oakland

It's hard to imagine Jeff Garcia (right) came to Oakland just so he could sit on the bench and back up JaMarcus Russell. (Ben Margot / Associated Press)
2008 stats: 244-for-376, 12 TDs, 6 INTs, 2,712 yards

Why was he signed?: I have to imagine it's to push JaMarcus Russell to become a better quarterback, not to take over as Oakland's permanent signal caller.

Will he start?: Garcia certainly wants to since the 39-year-old doesn't have many more seasons left in the tank and didn't make the move just to see what sitting on Oakland's bench feels like.

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Are the Raiders already prepared to waive the while flag on Russell? He was hardly impressive last year, but we're now entering year three of the JaMarcus era, which is when NFL quarterbacks are really expected to have a pretty full grasp of the game and start earning their pay. What kind of message does it send Russell if the Raiders relegate him back to the bench? Granted, Garcia only signed a one-year deal, but when will the Raiders finally cut Russell's umbilical cord for good? Or, do they just plan on adding journeyman backup quarterbacks year after year to hold Russell's hand? This one is too close to call for now.

Byron Leftwich, Pittsburgh to Tampa Bay

2008 stats: 21-of-36, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 303 yards

Why was he signed?: To compete with Josh Freeman and Luke McCown for the starting quarterback position, and the race to the top spot is totally wide open, like one of those professional wrestling matches where the first guy to climb to the top of the ladder standing in the middle of the ring wins whatever is inside the briefcase.

Will he start?: It all depends on what kind of patience new head coach Raheem Morris wants to show with Freeman (their future franchise quarterback ... they hope).

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Leftwich filled in nicely at times for the Steelers last year and probably has a better offense to work with down in Tampa than he would have had he stayed in the Burgh. But since this competition is so wide open, we can probably expect the same amount of fantasy production from whoever wins the job in the end. Let's put this one on hold and revisit it sometime next month. If your draft is before that, don't select any Tampa quarterbacks.

Dan Orlovsky, Detroit to Houston

2008 stats: 143-of-255, 8 TDs, 8 INTs, 1,616 yards

Why was he signed?: To serve as Matt Schaub's (admittedly very capable) backup since Sage Rosenfels went to Minnesota.

Will he start?: He left Detroit to avoid being a backup quarterback, but that's exactly what he'll be doing in Houston. Maybe he feels like spending a few years trying to finish off one of those Texas steak eating challenges.

What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? The only potentially good news for Orlovsky is Schaub hasn't played a full season of games since arriving in Houston. In fact, Schaub's only logged 11 games in each of his first two seasons with the franchise, which can probably be attributed to their inveterate offensive line woes. Schaub will probably (inevitably?) pick up some kind of knock that will force him to miss action this year, and Orlovsky showed in Detroit that one elite wideout may be enough for him to post a big game here and there.

Should Schaub get injured, the problem then becomes getting to the front of the line and beating the stampede to claim Orlovsky off the waiver wire for a temporary stint before all your other owners do. Just sit tight for now and be ready to pounce when he does get his chance.

Back at you with a running back roundup later this week.

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