Offseason RB moves: Ward overhyped
The running backs edition of offseason movement is a little bit different than the quarterbacks we discussed a couple days ago. Franchise running backs are rarely (if ever) available for pickup. Do you think the Vikings would ever just let someone like Adrian Peterson walk out the door without getting boatloads of compensation in return?
If a particular running back is that good, their teams are going to fight tooth and nail to keep them. Generally speaking, it isn't quite the same with all franchise quarterbacks, and here's my theory as to why there's only room for one quarterback to play, but the dual-headed rushing attack has become the rage in today's NFL. Hell, ever Peterson himself shares time with Chester Taylor in Minnesota's backfield. Teams need two good running backs in order to have an effective attack in today's NFL, partially for a change of pace in the offense and also to keep their backs fresh as the physical game grinds on. In other words, running backs are able to share snaps with other running backs on the roster, but it doesn't quite work the same way with quarterbacks.
If a team has what they consider to be a franchise quarterback, he'll typically take 99 percent of the snaps in a given season. But if his backup has shown he's capable (think Matt Cassel last year), he's not going to want to just sit on the bench for his entire career ... he's going to move somewhere else and try to become his new team's franchise guy. To put it simply, franchise running backs are more prone to sharing reps than franchise quarterbacks are to sharing snaps. Get it? Got it? Good.
Let's take a look at which relocated running backs may make a fantasy splash next season.
Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan to Broncos
2008 stats:
Buckhalter 76 carries, 369 yds, 2 TDs, 26 rec. 364 yds, 2 TDs
Jordan 80 carries, 363 yds, 4 TDs, 0 rec. 0 yds, 0 TDs
Why were they signed?: Either Josh McDaniels has a running bet going with another NFL coach on which one can have the highest number of running backs on the final 53-man roster, or he was paranoid with Denver's running backs getting so banged up last season that the Broncos pretty much had to resort to something like Plan J by the time December rolled around. I hope it's the former and McDaniels decides to go "all-in" and we see him take the field with 53 running backs on the sidelines for Week 1.
Which one will start?: That depends entirely on how you define "start." If it means the player who will be standing in the backfield during the first snap of a game, then that could change on a week-to-week basis ... meaning that same guy won't necessarily be the most valuable fantasy back of the bunch. That is what you're really interested in, isn't it?
What kind of fantasy output can we expect from them in 2009? Again, this is something that could vary on a week-to-week basis. The Broncos have plenty of capable backs on their roster, including newbie Knowshon Moreno, but McDaniels showed in New England that he's more than willing to run an RB-by-committee approach. For that reason alone, don't discount Jordan as a fantasy nobody McDaniels liked him enough to bring him over from New England and may even give him a goal-line vulcher role.
Maurice Morris, Seahawks to Lions
2008 stats: 132 carries, 574 yards, 0 TDs, 19 rec., 136 yards, 2 TDs
Why was he signed?: Because the Lions are pretty thin at the running back position after Kevin Smith and wanted to add someone who is experienced at providing reliable depth.
Will he start?: Nope.
What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Probably not a great deal, frankly. Morris certainly got a lot of run during his time in Seattle, but he was never a terribly productive fantasy back. He rushed for a total of four touchdowns in the last three seasons (all of them coming in 2007). He can catch the occasional touchdown pass out of the backfield, but has never even reached 630 yards on the ground in any season of his career. As I said above, he'll come in and get a few scraps after Smith is done doing his thing.
Dominic Rhodes, Colts to Bills
2008 stats: 152 carries, 538 yards, 6 TDs, 45 rec., 302 yards, 3 TDs
Why was he signed?: To partially soften the blow of Marshawn Lynch's three-game suspension at the beginning of the 2009 season. You have to imagine the Bills coaching staff would be ecstatic if they could somehow eek out a 2-1 record before Lynch returns.
Will he start?: No, but at an absolute minimum, he'll share time with Fred Jackson during those first three weeks. After that, we'll see which one emerges as Lynch's primary backup.
What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Probably not a great deal. Last year was actually Rhodes' highest touchdown output since his rookie year in 2001 and the third-highest yardage total of his career. But Lynch is going to get the lion's share of carries when he returns, and Rhodes and Jackson will have to fight for whatever is left. If you're dead-set on drafting Rhodes this year for some reason, you had better hope Jackson picks up some kind of injury.
Fred Taylor, Jaguars to Patriots
2008 stats: 143 carries, 556 yards, 1 TD, 16 rec., 98 yards, 1 TD
Why was he signed?: Because the old man may still have something left in the tank and has, in recent years, seemed to have avoided picking up his perennial injury that sidelines him for a good chunk of the season (knock on wood).
Will he start?: No. He'll be part of another multi-headed backfield attack in New England.
What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Taylor still hasn't played a full 16-game season since 2003. He may not be as injury-prone as he once was in his career, but I just have a hard time trusting someone who has been in the league this long and suffered so many injures to keep chugging along. The problem is he's now on a team where he may arguably be the best running back on the depth chart, but he's not going to see feature back responsibilities. It's probably safe to say Taylor's better days are behind him, and he may even be hard-pressed to match his 2008 numbers.
Derrick Ward, Giants to Buccaneers
2008 stats: 182 carries, 1,025 yards, 2 TDs, 41 rec., 384 yards, 2 TDs
Why was he signed?: Because near the end of the season, Ward ran absolutely wild in one important game, which made the Bucs think he's capable of being a franchise back. Well ...
Will he start?: You're damn skippy he will.
What kind of fantasy output can we expect from him in 2009? Ward's overall numbers from 2008 look awfully impressive, especially the 5.6-yard-per-carry average. But he rushed for 215 of them in Week 16 against Carolina and 101 in Week 6 at Cleveland. That was it as far as 100-yard ground games go, so Ward was a bit of a feast or famine proposition.
He only rushed for two touchdowns all season long and was rarely a factor in the passing attack (yeah, he'd post okay numbers every now and then, but never caught any insane amount of passes to the point where you would have really regretted sitting him). He won't be in Brandon Jacobs' shadow anymore, but I'm just unconvinced he'll make a big impact in his first season with the Bucs (especially since their passing attack could struggle to the point where defenses stack the box and crash the run).


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