by Mike Harmon

Comment

The RB-RB strategy, tried and true through the '90s and the early part of this decade, is gone. Wide receivers are busting into the middle of the first round, and those leagues using PPR scoring are throwing the old rules out the window. It's yet to become the standard, but we're seeing more leagues making moderate tweaks to the rules and reward those players who don't necessarily receive the end zone glory.

Like those NFL players trying to find a way to reward offensive linemen (I hear you, loud and clear, and want nothing more than to help your cause), the addition of the PPR expands the viable player list and recognizes the accomplishments and contributions of players such as Derrick Mason, Donald Driver and Muhsin Muhammad. I like trying to factor in the extra nugget of moving the chains and putting the work between the 20s under the microscope.

So, let's do just that. I'm trotting out my projected leaders in the receptions category. Some of the usual suspects appear, but there's some new flavor, too. The leader remains the same.

1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

Every quarterback to line up under center for the Texans since 2003 has known one fundamental truth — throw the ball in the direction of Johnson. He will catch it, no matter whether he's mauled in single-coverage or facing an aggressive double-team. OK, the second is that you'll be sacked frequently as a Houston signal caller.

In his past three seasons, Johnson has averaged 6.8 receptions per game. Remember, he played much of the 2007 season injured, and that he's operated with multiple quarterbacks (that whole sack thing again). The Houston offense is one replete with weapons, and I believe we're all curious to see whether Matt Schaub can elevate his game. One thing remains true at the core. Throw it up and let Andre make a play.
2008 Total: 115 receptions
2009 Projection: 111 receptions

2. Wes Welker, New England Patriots

For the second straight year, Welker ranked among the leaders in this category. Matt Cassel clearly studied well at the feet of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, recognizing Welker as essentially a running option after catching the quick slant. He showed glimpses of being a dangerous second weapon in 2006 for the Dolphins (69 receptions), but nobody could have expected this level of production.

Welker caught 112 passes in 2007 and nearly matched his output in 2008. He caught six or more passes in 14 games. Think about that — that's PPR dominance. Brady is back at the helm for 2009, so we can reasonably anticipate that Welker remains among the leaders in this category.
2008 Total: 111 receptions
2009 Projection: 107 receptions

3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks

Following a long and arduous journey in Cincinnati, Houshmandzadeh sets his sights on helping lead the Seahawks back to the top of the NFC West. Housh has been one of the best at moving the chains for years. Last year, he still amassed 92 receptions despite the absence of Carson Palmer and inefficiency and ineptitude gripping the Cincinnati offense. In his final three years with the Bengals, Houshmandzadeh averaged 98 receptions.

The big question concerning the Seahawks is health. Can the offensive line, Matt Hasselbeck and the secondary receivers stay healthy? If so, this could be one of the more prolific offenses of 2009 and loads of fun to watch for fans and fantasy owners. We do know that Houshmandzadeh will get his looks, regardless.
2008 Total: 92 receptions
2009 Projection: 101 receptions

4. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

There's no denying Fitzgerald's physicality and ability to dominate opposing defensive backs. He makes the impossible catches look easy and isn't afraid to work over the middle of the field, much like teammate Anquan Boldin. Fitzgerald's fantasy hero worship comes off the deep ball and his red zone dominance, but he still does all the little things along the way, too. He's caught 96 or more passes in three of his past four seasons and has averaged 5.6 receptions per game during his five-year career. Only injury can slow the Arizona passing attack.
2008 Total: 96 receptions
2009 Projection: 98 receptions

5. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

With Terrell Owens in Buffalo, Witten becomes the de facto No. 1 receiver in Dallas. He was little-used in the passing game as a rookie in 2003, but Witten has been terrorizing defenses down the seams for five years now. During this period, the former Tennessee Volunteer has averaged 78.8 receptions.

Witten's 2008 totals also included an extended period during which he battled extreme discomfort because of a broken rib. He missed one game and caught four balls total in the three others during that month. Still, Witten finished the year with 81 receptions! I anticipate that Witten challenges his career mark of 96 receptions from 2007.
2008 Total: 81 receptions
2009 Projection: 97 receptions

6. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals

Never mind the contract squabbling. When Anquan Boldin plays, he's a productive warrior. (Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images)

Boldin is the epitome of a football player, willing to give himself up to secure a catch regardless of circumstance. He paid the price last year with a huge hit and ultimately missed a full month of action for the second straight year, yet he still finished the season with 89 receptions. He caught five or more passes in all but one game in which he appeared last season. Boldin has averaged 83.7 receptions per season in his six-year NFL career. The Arizona offense is back for another run, so the only question here is about his health. I'm dismissing the trade chatter and contract squabbles. He'll be ready to play.
2008 Total: 89 receptions
2009 Projection: 94 receptions

7. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Tony Gonzalez is gone, and that makes Bowe the undisputed No. 1 receiver in the Kansas City offense. He's excelled in his first two NFL seasons (78 receptions per year) despite questions at quarterback and internal strife. Now, Cassel takes the reins and will seek to restore the franchise to a competitive force. We do know that he can fling the ball around, as evidenced in New England.
2008 Total: 86 receptions
2009 Projection: 92 receptions

8. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos

This offseason was a strange and trying one for the Denver Broncos. They had a battle with their quarterback, Jay Cutler, who was later dealt to Chicago. They had to undergo a massive overhaul of the defense. Those issues have been addressed, but Marshall is still looking for a deal with camp looming.

In the interim, I'm evaluating Marshall as a member of the Broncos with Kyle Orton under center. He's still a phenomenal physical receiver (averaging 103 receptions the past two years) who gets open and his numbers shouldn't drop off the map because of Cutler's departure. I do anticipate that there will be a shift in production, as the Broncos will probably turn back to the running game to some degree. Marshall has a tremendous receiver running opposite him in Eddie Royal (91 receptions as a rookie), and I expect the Broncos to utilize Tony Scheffler more effectively. Owners coming into the year deriding this Denver offense and the play of Orton need to think again. He can still push the ball around.
2008 Total: 104 receptions
2009 Projection: 91 receptions

9. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

It will be strange seeing the Colts take the field without old No. 88 in the fall, but I guess it simply marks the passage of time. Wayne has performed as a No. 1 receiver seemingly forever, so there's not much changing in Indy. He's averaged 83.3 receptions during his past six NFL campaigns and broke the hallowed 100-catch barrier in 2007. I'm expecting a slight improvement over his 2008 total, but not a significant boost over his career average.
2008 Total: 82 receptions
2009 Projection: 90 receptions

10. Randy Moss, New England Patriots

We didn't expect to see Moss duplicate his prolific 2007 season, but fantasy owners also couldn't have expected to see Tom Brady crumble to the turf in the opening week, either. As a result, Moss didn't have the same dramatic impact, but still posted a strong, albeit unspectacular, campaign. Brady is back under center, meaning more chances will be taken to get Moss the ball on the outside.
2008 Total: 69 receptions
2009 Projection: 88 receptions

11t. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons

I understand that the Falcons have built their offense around the running skills of 2008 breakout performer Michael Turner. With that said, we shouldn't ignore the 3,440 passing yards compiled by Matt Ryan. Gonzalez may be used as a blocker by the Falcons, but that doesn't mean he'll suddenly see a huge dip in productivity.

Do I expect Gonzalez to match the 97.5 receptions he's averaged during the past two years? No. Turner will continue to amass a huge carry count, but Gonzalez will still play a huge role in furthering Ryan's development.
2008 Total: 96 receptions
2009 Projection: 87 receptions

11t. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers

Smith missed two games because of a team-issued suspension and watched the Carolina running backs post ridiculous numbers in 2008. Still, he amassed 1,400 receiving yards and piled up 5.6 receptions per game. In his past five full seasons, Smith has averaged 87.8 receptions. I have no reason to suspect that we see a dip in production, as Smith still racked up 87 receptions during Jake Delhomme's injury-shortened 2007 season. Quite simply, there is a connection between them.
2008 Total: 78 receptions
2009 Projection: 87 receptions

13. Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2008 season was a veritable train wreck for the Rams. It was a season fraught with injuries and ineffectiveness, and not even Holt could escape the chaos. He saw his streak of 1,100-yard seasons end at eight, and he caught far fewer passes (64) than he had since his 1999 rookie campaign. During his eight-year streak, Holt averaged 94.1 receptions.

I'm excited about Holt's addition by the Jaguars. I'm convinced that he still has more left in the tank. David Garrard posted solid numbers last year despite working behind a makeshift offensive line and with a weak receiving corps. Holt's addition gives him a legitimate No. 1 to work alongside Maurice Jones-Drew's brilliance. He will be a fine No. 3 receiver for owners this year with upside.
2008 Total: 64 receptions
2009 Projection: 82 receptions

14. Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals

Count me among those fantasy owners excited to watch Coles run opposite Ochocinco in Cincinnati. He assumes the second slot following the departure of Houshmandzadeh in what could be an exciting offense. Carson Palmer is reportedly throwing well and will be ready to roll come opening weekend.

As for Coles, he's been a tremendous target going on a decade, averaging 70 receptions per season in his nine-year NFL career. He has averaged 82.5 receptions in his past six seasons (he caught 55 in his injury-shortened 2007 season). The defense is still a work in progress, thereby putting Palmer in a position to rack up huge numbers.
2008 Total: 70 receptions
2009 Projection: 80 receptions

15. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Gates played through pain last year and still amassed solid final numbers for the Chargers and fantasy owners. His 60 receptions marked his lowest total since his breakout 2004 season. From 2004-07, Gates averaged 79 receptions for Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. I have to believe that a healthy Gates returns to that level of production in the potent San Diego attack.
2008 Total: 60 receptions
2009 Projection: 77 receptions