Week 1 Lineup calls: Quarterback's top starts, sleepers and flops

Lineup calls: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | D/ST

The countdown clock continues to tick down toward the opening kickoff.

We’re now within a week of the grand celebration in New Orleans that ushers in a new football season. Forget about the last-minute trips to the shore. Forget about the household chores. It’s time to hunker down for the crescendo of the draft season and start turning our collective attention to the difficult lineup decisions that will occupy our minds through the end of December.

I’m getting things started in grand fashion with the quarterbacks in this inaugural edition of “Lineup Calls.” It’s good to be back.

 

Top 10 Quarterbacks

(not named Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers)

Carson Palmer at New England

The new-look Bengals receive a challenge out of the gate from the Patriots, and Palmer will need to produce downfield to earn a win. The Patriots remain strong on the line, and all questions related to the defense are targeted at the secondary (as evidenced by Sam Bradford’s breakout performance). Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco are now matched up with inexperienced cornerbacks for this matchup.

Alex Smith at Seattle

I’ve spent the entire off-season endorsing the moves made in San Francisco to bolster the offense, and I’m curious to watch the 49ers try to stake their claim in the NFC West in Seattle. The recent spat between Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree will quickly fade into the background, leaving Smith with two dominant receivers, a capable pair of hands in the backfield (Frank Gore) and a steady second option in Josh Morgan.

The Seahawks have undergone a massive overhaul under Pete Carroll, and the defense is much better on paper given the arrival of Earl Thomas to team with Lawyer Milloy at safety and the growth of Aaron Curry in his second year. The San Francisco offense wins out here.

Jay Cutler vs. Detroit

How much do I trust the Chicago offensive line? Can they stop Ndamukong Suh and Kyle VandenBosch? I spent ample time watching waves crash on the rocks on Wednesday pondering this issue.

Ultimately, I came to terms with the fact that Cutler will take his lumps in this game, but that the persistent pressure yields gaping holes in the secondary and allows Johnny Knox and Devin Hester to start the season with a bang. Cutler passed for 417 yards and six touchdowns (with one rushing, to boot) in two games against the Lions last year.

Eli Manning vs. Carolina

Manning has myriad receiving options at his disposal and a strong two-headed monster in the backfield. He starts the season with a home tilt against a unit that ranked fourth against the pass in 2009. Linebacker Jon Beason is back to anchor this unit, but the impact of Julius Peppers’ departure will be significant. Manning passed for 296 yards with one touchdown, three turnovers and three sacks in Week 16 against this squad last year. Manning was frequently under duress during this game. The Panthers will be hard-pressed to replicate that effort (New York’s offensive line questions notwithstanding).

Matthew Stafford at Chicago

The long road to NFL glory and fantasy dominance begins with that first step. Stafford starts his ascent in Week 1 against the Bears, provided that he can slide in the pocket and avoid pressure from Julius Peppers. Injuries to Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs leave the back-seven exposed. Stafford passed for 296 yards with one touchdown and two turnovers in his Week 4 appearance against the Bears as a rookie.

Chad Henne at Buffalo

The Buffalo run defense was atrocious last season, but the secondary gave opposing coordinators fits. It’s a work in progress this summer, as Aaron Schobel’s retirement and Jairus Byrd’s injury have made the Bills look pathetic this preseason. Players have been shuffled throughout the defense and continue to learn assignments.

Buffalo expects Chan Gailey to get back into action for Week 1, thereby fortifying the unit. I’m moderately concerned about the timing issues that have persisted between Brandon Marshall and Henne this preseason. I still trust that they’ll find spots in this game and that Anthony Fasano will play a huge role. Henne passed for a total of 290 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in two starts against Buffalo last year.

Brett Favre at New Orleans

He’s back and ready to go. Yes, Favre’s last pass of the 2009 season was a soul-stealing interception at the hands of these Saints and he enters the season without his top option, Sidney Rice. Still, Favre generally responds brilliantly under such circumstances, and I suspect that the Vikings get the ball out of his hands quickly in anticipation of persistent pressure.

The gambling nature of the secondary leaves the Saints susceptible to the big play. Favre may not claim victory here, but he’ll offer a strong effort to fantasy owners. (Get ready for one or two turnovers in the mix.)

David Garrard vs. Denver

I know. I’ve banged on Garrard as one of those reality-fantasy splits. He puts up solid overall numbers, but the weekly efforts leave you wanting (12 of his 15 passing touchdowns came in five games). Still, I can’t look past him for this game against the Denver defense. Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas are solid outside options, and Maurice Jones-Drew is expected to be available for his usual workload. Garrard passed for at least 202 yards in 11 games last season. The growth of his receiving options intrigues me for this matchup, so long as he can avoid Robert Ayers.

Vince Young vs. Oakland

Young averaged 178 passing yards and 27.6 rushing yards per game after taking over the starting role in Week 8. He faces an interesting Oakland defense that ranked 25th against the pass in 2009, allowing 206.4 yards and one touchdown per game (tied for the NFL basement with eight interceptions). I’m intrigued by the upgrades on the Oakland defense, but I’m also expecting continued growth from Young. Chris Johnson sets the pace, with Young looking to tight ends Bo Scaife and Jared Cook (sleeper?), and steady veterans Justin Gage and Nate Washington on the wings. Remember, a flat pass to Johnson that turns into a 50-yard gainer counts the same as a pretty, high-arcing toss.

Kyle Orton at Jacksonville

He’s not sexy, but he’s efficient. Orton quietly passed for 3,802 yards, including 10 games with at least 221 passing yards. Brandon Marshall is gone, but the offense rolls on with new top target Jabar Gaffney, rookie Eric Decker and the enigmatic Eddie Royal. He’s worth a look-see as a QB2.

Quarterback Sleepers

Jake Delhomme at Tampa Bay

I know. You’re not starting Delhomme unless you’re in a two-quarterback league. Still, I felt that I needed to put him on the list this week. Delhomme has looked sharp this preseason and faces a defense seeking an identity and playing without cornerback Aquib Talib.

Matt Cassel vs. San Diego

I may be the only one, but I’m mighty intrigued to watch Charlie Weis’ offense go to work this season. Cassel returns Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers on the edges with the ultra-explosive Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster working into the mix. The Chargers were a middle of the road defense in 2009 and will likely open the year without linebacker Shawne Merriman, who is still recovering from an Achilles injury.

Derek Anderson at St. Louis

OK. I’ll bite. The St. Louis defense ranked 29th in total defense last season, and I’m not sure that enough has changed to exact immediate change (22 passing touchdowns allowed with just eight interceptions a year ago).

The quarterback issue in Arizona has obviously gotten a ton of press, and Anderson gets the first crack at the starting job (Max Hall waits in the wings). Anderson is on the board here as a tribute to the power of Larry Fitzgerald and the opportunities afforded by the strong one-two punch out of the backfield.

Quarterback Flops

Kevin Kolb vs. Green Bay

Kolb is still a fantasy starter for Week 1, but fantasy owners need to temper their expectations in this matchup. It’s possible that it turns into a shootout, and the injuries and issues in the Green Bay secondary open up big plays for Kolb and his speedy wideouts. I’ll tepidly throw up a mini-red flag for Kolb’s opener.

Matt Ryan at Pittsburgh

Ryan’s excited about the Atlanta offense for 2010. Who wouldn’t be with Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Michael Turner trotting out in support of the third-year quarterback? However, Ryan faces a difficult Week 1 test against a rejuvenated and deeper Pittsburgh defense that welcomes back healthy starters Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith (a huge, yet largely ignored, absence in 2009).

Joe Flacco at New York Jets

Flacco is one of the darlings of the 2010 draft season. The arrival of Anquan Boldin has tongues wagging, and Flacco has been phenomenal this preseason. He opens with a difficult matchup against the Jets, a run-stuffing unit with Kris Jenkins and a strong secondary, led by the main attraction, "Revis Island," that received an infusion of cash and is ready for business.