Week 1 Lineup calls: Running Back's top starts, sleepers and flops

Lineup calls: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | D/ST

It’s that magical time again. The long and arduous journey to a February date in Dallas begins with a Thursday night rematch of the NFC Championship Game.

Fantasy owners have done their due diligence and worked hard to split hairs and create the ultimate fantasy draft list. Now, they have to make the difficult decisions in the second running back and second and third wide receiver slots.

They’ll also look a few of their would-be automatic starters sideways. It’s Week 1. Repeat this mantra. “I will play my studs.” “I will play my studs.”

As I contemplated this list, some of the running backs rated as back-end RB1s and early RB2 had to fall into the “Flops” list. Temper your expectations.

Let’s rock.

Top 10 Running Backs

(not named Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Michael Turner)

Ryan Mathews at Kansas City

It may not be too long before Mathews cracks the "exclusion" list above, but I’ll start him out as the lead in this list for Week 1. Kansas City has charged Romeo Crennel with improving last season’s 31st-ranked unit against the run. I don’t know that he necessarily has the players to do so. The secondary is improved, but the front seven comes to opening day with questions surrounding former top picks.

Mathews has demonstrated an ability to bounce to the outside this summer and make big plays. He’ll take on a larger role in the passing game with Vincent Jackson still sitting on the sidelines.

Rashard Mendenhall vs. Atlanta

The Falcons quietly ranked 10th against the run in 2009. I don’t expect a dramatic drop-off in that area of performance, but the secondary remains a question mark. Of course, we’re also wondering what type of effort we’ll see from Ben Roethlisberger’s stand-in. I’d take a few shots downfield early with Mike Wallace to soften things up the middle and keep the Falcons honest.

Regardless, I expect to see Mendenhall take on a yeoman-like role in the opener and for Mike Tomlin to get this team into smash-mouth mode immediately. Mendenhall gained at least 80 yards in each game in which he carried the ball at least 20 times.

Chris "Beanie" Wells at St. Louis

Wells finds himself in a split with Tim Hightower for touches, but I suspect that the overall touch count out of the backfield rises with each story coming out about the quarterbacking situation. That doesn’t mean that Derek Anderson won’t take his shots downfield against this secondary (with Larry Fitzgerald, how could you not?), but look for Wells to post a heavy workload against the suspect St. Louis front.

Arian Foster vs. Indianapolis

Foster has become the “IT” player of the fantasy draft season. He assumes the lead role in Gary Kubiak’s offense following Ben Tate’s season-ending injury and Steve Slaton’s continuing issues. Foster takes aim at the always-suspect Indianapolis run defense as part of one of the game’s most explosive attacks. The Colts have ranked 24th against the run in back-to-back seasons.

Ronnie Brown at Buffalo

Brown returns from injury to resume the lead role against the run-deficient Buffalo defense (Ricky Williams is also on the radar this week for a RB3 or flex slot). The Bills allowed an average of 156.5 yards per game in 2009, and didn’t shuffle things up much at all. Brown rushed for 115 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 5 blowout win over Miami last year. Lock him in for another big run.

Matt Forte vs. Detroit

Forte absorbed a ton of criticism this off-season after failing to post numbers worthy of a top-4 pick (which he was in 2009). He’s leaner, meaner, healthier and motivated to return to the top of the heap. We’re all concerned about the state of the Chicago offensive line, but a high touch count, particularly with a big role in the passing game, will make Forte one of the top performers this week against Detroit.

The Lions fortified the defensive line by bringing aboard veterans Kyle VandenBosch and Corey Williams and selecting Ndamakong Suh in the NFL Draft. I’ll look for Jay Cutler to open things up downfield and for the Bears to swing the ball out to Forte in space.

Knowshon Moreno at Jacksonville

I remain concerned about the hamstring injury as we enter the season. He’s returned to the practice field and should resume his place as the starting tailback ahead of Correll Buckhalter. Moreno takes on a retooled Jacksonville defensive line (rookie Tyson Alualu and Aaron Kampman) and upgraded the linebacking corps with Kirk Morrison. Still, I don’t anticipate much more than a middling performance from this unit. If Moreno has his burst back for the opener, Moreno can make plays on the edges.

DeAngelo Williams at New York Giants

The Giants allowed an astounding total of 21 rushing touchdowns in 2009 (second-worst in the NFL), a result of an abysmal effort from the secondary. Some of those issues have been addressed, but we can reasonably expect Williams and tag-team partner Jonathan Stewart to pile up touches in this game. The Panthers have huge questions in the passing game behind Steve Smith. As such, John Fox will be leaning on the dynamic duo once again. Williams topped 75 rushing yards in eight of the 13 games in which he appeared last season. He did not appear in the Week 16 matchup against New York. Stewart ripped the Giants apart for 206 yards.

Jahvid Best at Chicago

The Bears upgraded the defensive line by bringing aboard Julius Peppers. As such, I expect a moderate improvement from this defense overall. However, linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs enter the year with injury concerns. Best has the “home run” potential that evokes memories of another Detroit tailback. It takes one burst.

Joseph Addai at Houston

Addai posted solid, albeit unspectacular, games against the Texans in 2009. He averaged 66 yards in those two games with one touchdown run. The Colts are loaded and ready for another run. I anticipate that you’ll see more of Donald Brown, but Addai remains the leader in the backfield and a force at the goal line.

Running Back Sleepers

Jerome Harrison at Tampa Bay

The fifth-year player and 2009 fantasy hero gets the first crack at the Buccaneers. Gerald McCoy is being counted on to raise this unit immediately from its place at the bottom of the run defense ranks. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Harrison posts a big day to start 2010.

Tim Hightower at St. Louis

What else can I say? You have ample questions under center, so do the two-step and swing the ball to the running backs. The Rams ranked 27th against the run in 2009, yet only swapped out one member of the front seven (Fred Robbins comes in from New York). Hightower makes the most of his 14 touches this week.

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams vs. Cleveland

Williams appears on this list given the expectation of a huge workload and the likelihood of Shaun Rogers’ absence on the defensive line. Williams topped 75 rushing yards on five occasions last season en route to a solid 800-yard season. The Browns ranked 28th in run defense last year with Rogers appearing in only 11 games. Williams rates as a solid RB3 this week.

C.J. Spiller vs. Miami

Injuries to Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson have opened the door for Spiller to showcase his skills to the football world. He takes aim in the opener against a re-tooled, middle of the road Miami defense. Like everyone else, I’m curious to see how Spiller is supported by and is integrated into the passing game. That’s where I’m looking for a big play to emerge, a quick-hit pass where Spiller turns on the after-burners.

Running Back Flops

Shonn Greene vs. Baltimore

Ngata. I just love that we’re back into game analysis and talking about the monsters on the defensive interior. Greene has “home run”-hitting ability, of course, but running room between the tackles will be sparse. It’s the classic strength-on-strength matchup.

Cedric Benson at New England

Benson was mighty impressive last season, and I’m confident that he comes up with another tremendous season for owners in 2010. However, Benson opens the season against the wall that is Vince Wilfork. The Patriots have ranked in the upper-half against the run in the past two seasons while allowing a total of 14 touchdowns in 32 games. The Bengals’ offense is enticing, but any fireworks are coming against the New England secondary.

Pierre Thomas vs. Minnesota

The split backfield continues in New Orleans. That’s not my concern. I’m looking squarely at the behemoths up front for the Vikings (second in run defense last year) as an impediment despite Thomas’ 99 total yards and two touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game. Thomas has to be in your lineup as an RB2, but you’re left hoping for Thomas to cash the check following a Drew Brees completion. Yardage on the ground will be tough to find.

Ryan Grant at Philadelphia

I remain a big-time backer of Grant overall, but he starts the season with a tough road matchup against the always-stout Philly run defense (ninth last year). Grant could see a short goal-line plunge off Aaron Rodger’s efforts. I’m not banking on a robust yardage total here.