Fantasy quarterback flops: Beware of Kolb, Favre

Football fans are reading up on their respective team’s draft choices and free agency swaps.

They’re analyzing the schedule. Some are already checking on flights and accommodations for Dallas for early February. Most are starting the arduous process of positional rankings for fantasy purposes. I welcome those of you to the madness of “Football 2010.”

In past articles, I’ve proffered my preliminary rankings and sleeper prospects for the coming season. Now, I’ll don the cap of negativity and roll up the potential "flops" of 2010, starting with the quarterback position. In order to qualify for “flop” consideration here, players must be considered viable starting options or among the top backups.

Therefore, players such as Matt Cassel (back-end No. 2), Matt Hasselbeck (back-end No. 2 flyer), Matthew Stafford (generating excitement, but his draft slot hasn’t changed much), Ben Roethlisberger (suspension) and Kyle Orton (positional battle) don’t qualify for an elaborate discussion herein.

5. Joe Flacco, Baltimore

Flacco’s play advanced markedly in his sophomore season, as the Delaware product tossed 50 percent more touchdown passes with a 21 percent increase for his passing yardage over his rookie efforts. It should be noted that Flacco generated multiple touchdown passes during only six games last season and was shut out four times.

There’s certainly a lot to like about this offense, which was already efficient prior to the offseason acquisition of Anquan Boldin to run opposite veteran Derrick Masonand the selection of two new pass-catching tight ends (Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson) during the NFL Draft. The offensive upgrades have catapulted Flacco into starting quarterback consideration. I have him ranked 12th as of mid-June, so I’m certainly a believer. However, I do have reservations about the ceiling for Flacco’s statistical output. That is to say, Ray Rice and Willis McGahee will still get their fair share of red zone opportunities, Boldin’s arrival notwithstanding.

4. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia

Save the letter-writing campaigns. I’m not here to bash Kolb or denigrate the Philadelphia offense. I’m merely serving Kolb up as a fantasy option facing ridiculous expectations for his first year as a starter. After all, we only saw Kolb in two games last season, and he certainly whetted the appetites of fantasy owners with 718 passing yards and four touchdowns.

The pieces are certainly there for Kolb to post huge numbers in the long-established Philadelphia scheme. LeSean McCoy is a strong receiver out of the backfield, Brent Celek has emerged as a top-flight tight end, and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are deadly downfield targets.

The former Houston star has the goods to be a star, but I have some reservations about the offensive line play and the strength of the NFC East defenses. The Giants seek to rebound following a disastrous 2009 campaign. The Cowboys rank among the best units in the game, and Washington (once they sort out the Albert Haynesworth mess) could be interesting. I certainly don’t anticipate the Philadelphia matches its 2009 offensive output (26.8 points per game, fifth in the NFL).

3. Donovan McNabb, Washington

Do you believe in the power of Mike Shanahan? McNabb was traded, as expected, this offseason, but the fact that he’s still setting up shop in the NFC East leaves some scribes and pundits, self included, scratching their heads.

McNabb leaves a loaded receiving corps behind in Philadelphia for one that is a little more unsettled behind veteran wideout Santana Moss. Moss is still a solid (perhaps undervalued) option, but isn’t quite the explosive downfield option that he was once. The strength of the unit is the tight end position, where Chris Cooley and Fred Davis form a formidable duo.

The Redskins will need Devin Thomas to become a more consistent option opposite Moss for McNabb to post huge numbers. It goes without saying, however, that McNabb’s career wasn’t exactly made by teaming with household names at wide receiver.

I’m more concerned with the fact that McNabb’s only completed one of his past six seasons and hasn’t thrown more than 23 touchdowns during any of his past five seasons. And, while he’ll seesaw between big fantasy efforts and the occasional tepid performance, at least you know he’ll be under center if healthy (good luck figuring out the running back situation in DC).

2. Vince Young, Tennessee

I’m starting to see Young creeping up draft boards during the past several weeks despite his much-publicized off-the-field incident (is a suspension in the offing?). Young produced 12 total touchdowns (two rushing) last season after assuming the reins under center in Week 8. He has a strong downfield option in sophomore Kenny Britt, but ample questions remain in the receiving corps. Chris Johnson’s potential holdout could decimate this offense.

Owners jumping aboard the Young bandwagon must see something that I don’t. He certainly has the big arm necessary for the electrifying deep ball to Britt downfield, but he averaged only 187.9 passing yards per game. Can you really bank on him to scramble for 40-50 rushing yards per game? I just can’t.

1. Brett Favre, Minnesota

There are red flags all around when it comes to the selection of Favre.

• First, if you draft too early this summer, you run the risk of Favre finally making good on his innumerable retirement threats and riding his lawnmower off into the sunset.
• Second, Favre is coming back off of an ankle injury, so some of those evasive moves to give his receivers another second of separation might be gone. Pressure off of the edges may result in more "Strahan slides."
• Finally, his 2009 efficiency will be impossible to match despite the myriad weapons at his disposal. Favre hadn’t thrown as many touchdowns in a season since 1997, and his interception total was the lowest of his career.

If he plays, and I fully expect that he does, owners have to be ready for a few more crushing interceptions, a downturn for his touchdown total (Welcome to Minnesota, Mr. Toby Gerhart) and perhaps even an injury absence. Those who select old No. 4 on draft day are certainly undertaking significant risk. It’s just a question of whether we see a finish resembling "The Rookie" or a horror film.