Fantasy running back flops: Mathews, Greene may disappoint

I love having the opportunity at this time of the year to don what I call "the cap of negativity."

For my previous post, I examined five potential fantasy flops at quarterback. This time out, I’m tossing darts at upper-tier running backs.

I know. We’re just beginning the long, winding road that is the fantasy draft season, so why get negative so early? Well, I like throwing out the potential wrinkles in the equation at the start of the process. It’s here that we start putting up those lines of demarcation between the different tiers at each position.

This short list doesn’t include Titans powerhouse Chris Johnson, whose contract issue and ridiculous 2009 workload stand as reasons to potential take a step back. I haven’t moved him out of the No. 1 slot just yet, but the internal hard drive of my brain keeps booting video clips of Adrian Peterson.

Let’s start things in San Diego.

5. Ryan Mathews, San Diego

Let me get this straight right now. I am not a Mathews hater. In fact, in my youthful trading card phase, I’d be stockpiling his cards as a small portion of my retirement fund. OK, not really, but Mathews is a top-flight talent in a tremendous offense. He is, in short, the perfect running back to usher in the post-LT era.

Norv Turner has already started gushing about the big-play potential from Mathews and the possibility of getting him near to 300 touches. Seriously, he’s talking about piling on 250 carries and 40-50 receptions. I can’t help but get a bit giddy about that pronouncement, as most of my fantasy brethren have as well. Still, there are a couple things to consider as you contemplate the first-round selection of Mathews.

Mathews still has Darren Sproles around to siphon off touches, particularly on third down. I’m more concerned about the run-blocking by the offensive line and the potential holdout, sit-down or whatever you want to call it, from tackle Marcus McNeill. McNeill’s absence could slow the offensive production overall, but the bigger impact would be felt in the running game.

4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City

Charles was tabbed as a “sleeper” last season given Larry Johnson’s tenuous hold on the top spot in training camp. The second-year tailback certainly helped catapult more than a few owners deep into the playoffs with a brilliant second half. Charles averaged 121 rushing yards per contest during the season’s final eight weeks, including five 100-yard games (259 in the seldom-used Week 17). He also caught a total of 40 passes last season.

So, what’s not to like in Charles’ third season? The offensive should improve overall in Matt Cassel’s second season under center and his offseason reunion with Charlie Weis. However, Charles will cede carries to Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, who has coined the new position of "Offensive Weapon." Charles will undoubtedly be a fantasy force in 2010, but Jones likely eats into his goal-line opportunities.

3. Shonn Greene, New York Jets

Greene ran over the Raiders in his first start last year (144 yards on 19 carries with two touchdowns). He’s now the unquestioned top option in New York following the departure of Thomas Jones for Kansas City. However, the Jets moved fairly quickly to bring veteran LaDainian Tomlinson into the mix. Say what you will about Tomlinson slowing down between the tackles and not dominating as he did at his peak. LT can still sniff out the painted grass.

The Jets also figure to place a great emphasis on Mark Sanchez’s arm for his second season. New York traded for Santonio Holmes to complement Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery. Following his four-game suspension, I suspect that the play-calling balance shifts. Greene is still a back-end RB1 on my board. Just know another back will have his number called for some of the glory runs.

2. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati

Benson dominated opposing defenses at the end of the 2008 season. However, even the most trusting fantasy owners couldn’t jump onboard Benson’s bandwagon too early in 2009. Benson certainly didn’t disappoint his backers, as the former first-round pick averaged 96.2 rushing yards per game and scored six touchdowns for the AFC North Champions.

Benson represents an interesting decision point for fantasy owners this summer. Do you believe that he’ll be able to absorb the punishment and turn in such a heavy weekly workload once again? Or, do the Bengals work to keep him fresh and insert Bernard Scott (a potential deep sleeper) more frequently?

Also, the Bengals focused on revamping the receiving corps this off-season. The team added Antonio Bryant to run opposite Chad Ochocinco following the tepid effort in 2009 from Laveranues Coles. They also drafted a potential red zone monster with Jermaine Gresham, the first true pass-catching tight end of the Carson Palmer era. For Palmer’s second year removed from injury, I suspect that the passing game returns to the forefront of the team’s playcalling. That isn’t to say that Benson doesn’t benefit from the balance, but the receiving corps might see the big payoffs.

1. Steven Jackson, St. Louis

Jackson is, quite frankly, a beast. He’s a physical freak, oftentimes dragging half of the opposing defense to pick up that extra yard. The question that we have to ask concerning the seventh-year back’s potential for 2010 is simple. How many more of these seasons can Jackson withstand before breaking down?

Jackson was a veritable one-man band last season in St. Louis. Despite a decided lack of support from the passing game, Jackson still amassed 1,738 total yards, including 1,416 rushing yards while appearing in 15 games (he’d appeared in 12 games during both the 2007 and 2008 seasons). He finished the season with as astounding total of 375 touches, the fourth season during his past five in which Jackson amassed at least 293 touches. Wow.

The passing game still has some question marks (some receivers with potential and Sam Bradford in the fold), but the offensive line was bolstered by the selection of Rodger Saffold in the NFL Draft. Will you get 15 complete games out of Jackson? That’s the risk-reward proposition here.