Top 10 fantasy rookies: Mathews, Spiller lead class

The 2010 NFL Draft played out according to the script early on, but the first day didn’t end without its share of surprises.

Before the draft was over, fans of some teams celebrated their selections, others shook their heads, and most of us were left puzzled by the Raiders.

As much as we may be excited or despondent about their teams’ selections, we can only take a "wait-and-see" approach. That doesn’t stop us from prognosticating and projecting the year ahead in the fantasy realm. In this early evaluation of this past weekend’s draft, I’m trotting out the 10 players whose situations and talent should put them on our fantasy radar.

Let’s begin in Pittsburgh.

10. Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh

The suspension of Ben Roethlisberger puts the running game in focus for the Steelers to open 2010. The smash-mouth style of football figures to return this season, led by the efforts of Rashard Mendenhall.

However, the Steelers will put a second back to pair with Mendenhall to maximize the offensive firepower and take pressure off Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch. Mewelde Moore is a good receiver and could fend off the rookie for touches early, but at 5-11 and 230 pounds, Dwyer has the physicality to get into the mix early and could factor for goal-line work.

I can’t wait for the “Backs on Backers” drill in Pittsburgh during training camp!

9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver

Expectations are sky-high for Thomas (literally and figuratively) following his selection by the Broncos as the replacement for Brandon Marshall. Sure, that may not be the whole of it, as the team clearly anticipates a bounce-back campaign out of third-year receiver Eddie Royal. However, Thomas’ name will be inextricably linked to Marshall’s exit to Miami.

I’m intrigued to see how he’s utilized in this offense. Clearly, Thomas has the opportunity to earn playing time immediately with Royal and veteran Jabar Gaffney as the primary options. Kyle Orton may not be a world-beater, but he’s efficient (save the Pittsburgh game in Week 5 and that against Kansas City in Week 17) and accurate (62.1 percent completion rate). If Thomas’ route-running is up to par, then he can thrive in the system.

8. Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota

Gerhart faced innumerable questions entering the NFL Draft, most of which concerned his ability to translate his power and speed combination to the next level. The comparisons to fullbacks and part-time running back options of the past were frequent. Are those questions necessarily valid? No, but history and roster trends placed Gerhart into a pre-defined box.

Gerhart figures to hit the ground running in 2010. He may, indeed, play some fullback in the Minnesota system, but he’ll definitely get opportunities behind Adrian Peterson. Chester Taylor averaged 157 touches per season in his final three years for the Vikings before exiting for Chicago.

I also expect Gerhart’s ability as a strong inside runner to be on display near the goal line. That isn’t to say that Peterson won’t still amass a huge touchdown total. I’m merely saying that the Vikings have a physical presence in Gerhart that allow the team to not subject Peterson to the extra punishment. Gerhart could see double-digit touches per game as a rookie.

7. Ben Tate, RB, Houston

Houston fans and draft analysts expected to see Ryan Mathews selected by the Texans at the No. 20 pick overall. Instead, the Chargers made a deal with Miami to move up to the No. 12 slot and selected the Fresno State back, while the Texans bolstered the defensive secondary by selecting Kareem Jackson from Alabama.

Three more running backs came off of the draft board before the No. 58 pick overall, where the Texans drafted following a trade with the Patriots and selected Tate. Tate’s a 5--11, 220-pound between-the-tackles force who can still make would-be tacklers miss in the open field (4.43-second 40-yard dash).

He’ll presumably become the every-down option with former fantasy stud Steve Slaton offering a change-of-pace receiving option. Most importantly, Tate has the body to be a goal-line force for Gary Kubiak’s offense. I only fear commitment issues after years of Kubiak working the maddening Mike Shanahan system of multiple backs.

6. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas

Jerry Jones made one of the huge statements of the first round by selecting Bryant, whose past and maturity had been called into question and impacted his draft stock. Still, there’s no denying his talent on the field. The Cowboys’ move to take Bryant seemingly puts Roy E. Williams’ future with the team in doubt, and I suspect that Bryant begins to work opposite Miles Austin as early as mini-camp.

The comparisons to last year’s top receiving prospect, Michael Crabtree, are numerous, and we saw Crabtree get comfortable quickly once he got onto the field. The Cowboys will work to avoid the same contract negotiation issues that kept Crabtree off the field last year and accelerate that learning curve.

Bryant will make an immediate impact on special teams, and I suspect that he’ll make more than a few highlight reels in the receiving game.

5. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis

Bradford is the future for St. Louis, and it’ll need to begin the future immediately by starting the rookie over A.J. Feeley and Keith Null. He has the size, accuracy and athleticism to transition to the pro game quickly. Now, it’s just a question of whether the Rams have enough pieces around him to let him succeed.

Donnie Avery and Brandon Gibson showed potential last year, and Laurent Robinson was strong out of the gate before sustaining a season-ending ankle injury. It would have been nice to see Rams address the receiving corps in the draft to help Bradford’s cause, but one should never overlook the addition of a new offensive tackle (Rodger Saffold).

And, let’s face it. This team had many other holes to address. They filled a big one and injected some life into the fan base with Bradford’s selection.

4. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati

The Bengals drafted Carson Palmer his first true pass-receiving tight end of his tenure. I wonder whether they’d have done so earlier if Palmer truly wanted a tight-end option, but that’s a tale for another time. Let’s look at Gresham on the surface. He’s a physical beast who should factor immediately into the Bengals’ red zone plans. The addition of Antonio Bryant opposite Chad Ochocinco and attention paid to Cedric Benson should open the field for Gresham to make plans down the seam.

3. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit

NFL fans turned off their televisions at the end of Round 1 and just shook their heads. The Raiders and Lions both emerged as Day 1 winners. Oakland’s draft success will be chronicled in great detail another time, but Detroit made immediate strides with the selections of Ndamukong Suh and the trade that landed Best at pick No. 30.

Best becomes the immediate No. 1 option for Jim Schwartz in Detroit. Kevin Smith struggled in 2009 before sustaining his season-ending knee injury. He’s on the comeback trail, but the Lions have staked their claim with the speedy Best (4.3-second 40-yard dash).

Dare I lean forward in my chair with some optimism about the changes in Detroit? The Lions have begun to upgrade the offensive line. Matthew Stafford should be more consistent in his second NFL season, as the team added two receiving targets in Tony Scheffler and Nate Burleson.

2. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo

I’m being optimistic in this post-draft analysis of Spiller’s potential. He’s a game-breaking option who also figures to have an immediate impact in the return game. Twenty-one of Spiller’s 51 collegiate touchdowns occurred from at least 50 yards and his 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine had tongues wagging.

For the moment, Spiller’s role is somewhat clouded. Versatile tailback Fred Jackson was one of the league’s surprise 1,000-yard backs in 2009 while playing in place of displaced former Pro Bowler and Marshawn Lynch, two-time 1,000-yard tailback. Lynch is, for the moment, still a member of the Bills and Buffalo management is contending that he’ll remain a member of the squad. And that is the key to Spiller’s potential value for 2010.

Will Lynch still be in the fold when the Bills arrive in training camp or suit up for Week 1 against Miami? If not, as I assume here, then Spiller will be an immediate impact player in a workload split with Jackson. If so, then you drop him a few notches here while simultaneously bumping up the Buffalo D/ST.

1. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego

The Chargers made a huge statement by leaping into the first half of the first round to snag Mathews, with both the Seahawks and Texans (at No. 14 and No. 20, respectively) as seemingly obvious fits. There’s no question that Norv Turner expects to work his first-round pick into the offense immediately, telling The San Diego Union-Tribune that he envisions Mathews’ touch count to approach 300. That statement establishes a clear pecking order in the high-octane San Diego offense, and leaves Darren Sproles in his change-of-pace role.

The Chargers’ inability to run the ball effectively and grind clock has been roundly criticized during their failed playoff bids in recent years and deservedly so. San Diego ranked 29th in running offense last year (88.9 yards per game) and 20th in 2008 (107.9 yards per game). Mathews will help turn things around instantly.