Lineup Calls: IND-HOU

When the NFL schedule was released, many fans and pundits circled this game as the contest that would decide the AFC South crown. Matt Schaub and the Texans were expected to finally actualize their potential and wrest the division away from Peyton Manning and the Colts. There were just a few questions that popped up in the long-range view.

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• Ryan Fowler
• Joel Beall
• Mike Harmon
• John Halpin

• Would the Houston defense improve under Wade Phillips?
• Would Arian Foster repeat his 2010 brilliance?
• Did Peyton Manning still have some magic left in his shoulder?
• Would Matt Schaub complete another season and translate the gaudy fantasy numbers into wins?

Answers:

1. Yes.

2. Yes, following a brief injury scare.

3. Leagues conducting early drafts sat with mouths agape when news of Manning’s surgical procedures broke. Those selections of Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark (later injured himself), Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie were instant losses like so many scratch-off lottery tickets. Sure, we’ll see 9,000 montages of Manning highlights and shots to the booth, and we’ll hear his name countless times. Savor the memories. Instead, fans will be treated to “The Dan Orlovsky Experience,” still riding high off of a resounding win over a flat Tennessee squad (I chanted “We want Locker” from my barstool).

4. T.J. Yates commands the Houston offense in place of Schaub, while Wade Phillips’ defense trudges on without him for the second straight game while he recovers from a medical procedure. Yates leads a banged-up offense into this Thursday’s game. Top receiver Andre Johnson remains sidelined because of a hamstring injury. Owen Daniels will be a game-time decision because of a knee injury.

Now that I’ve painted the backdrop, let’s delve into a brief edition of “Lineup Calls” for this game.

I don’t dismiss this game. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Colts win outright. However, trying to determine which performer from the Colts will produce a big stat line is a difficult proposition.

* I’ll run the full slate of “Lineup Calls” pieces for this championship weekend on Thursday.

Harmon’s QB Calls

Heroes

I have Arian Foster slotted as my No. 1 running back for this week. He eclipsed 100 rushing yards in the Week 14 loss to Carolina and now stands at 1,667 total yards on the season despite missing two contests. The Colts have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, ceding 122 rushing yards per game. Ben Tate ran for 116 yards on 24 carries with a touchdown in place of Foster in the season opener.

The Houston defense was beaten early by Cam Newton and the Carolina passing game in Week 15, but I’m anticipating a nice rebound here in this road tilt against the division rival Colts. The Texans limited a dysfunctional Indianapolis squad to seven points in a crushing season-opening victory (a 34-7 cruise). Overall, Houston is tied for third in total defense at 16.9 points allowed per game with 38 sacks and 25 turnovers.

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Flop Alerts

If you’ve watched any period of a sports highlight show since Sunday afternoon, then you’ve probably seen the image of Donald Brown sprinting 80 yards for a touchdown to put the game out of reach. More than a few casual NFL fans probably exclaimed, “He’s still there?”

Brown will probably slide up the ranking sheets across fantasyland following this recent huge effort. In fact, he’s had a nice run of production lately that includes a touchdown carry in three of his past four games. However, the Houston defense represents a difficult play for him this week. I’d feel better if Brown was more involved in the passing game (12 catches this year) because running space is sparse against this unit (second-fewest fantasy points to running backs). Sandwiched between his strong overall performances against the Panthers and Titans are 41 and 28-yard games against the Patriots and Ravens, respectively. I’ll stay away.

Similarly, I can’t trust any member of the Indianapolis passing attack. Reggie Wayne caught seven passes for 106 yards with a touchdown in the opener. He’s matched that effort just once in his past 13 games. Wayne has caught enough passes (59) to potentially slide into a No. 3 role for owners devoid of other options, but there’s ample risk associated with starting him.

Pierre Garcon has been a feast or famine option for owners this season. All of Garcon’s six touchdown receptions and 48% of his yardage total were earned in three games. I can’t gamble on a home run ball in championship week. That’s why Jacoby Jones takes a seat alongside him this week.

Ninja Alerts

With top tight end option Owen Daniels ailing because of a knee injury (he may still play), I’ll toss red zone threat Joel Dreessen on the radar for Thursday night. Dreessen caught five passes in the Texans’ previous two games and has scored six touchdowns this season (21 receptions).

Finally, let’s put T.J. Yates on the board for owners in two-quarterback leagues rolling into the championship round. The Colts have allowed the seventh-most points to quarterbacks this season and have been unable to generate turnovers despite the star power rushing off of the edges. Opponents have thrown three touchdown passes per interception (24-to-8 ratio). Yates crashed back to earth in Week 15 against the Panthers after the Texans fell behind early. He passed for 212 yards with two interceptions and two sacks.

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