Is Manning’s fantasy reign finished?

“But fate ordains that dearest friends must part.” – Edward Young

The name “Peyton Manning” is synonymous with fantasy football thanks to the quarterback’s fondness for finding the end zone, posting 399 scores in his 13-year career. After initial growing pains in his 1998 rookie campaign, Manning has averaged 4,257 yards, 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions the past 12 seasons. These video game-like numbers have given Manning god-like status in the fantasy forum, as the presence of the Colts’ QB has correlated to many a fantasy championship. As a former Manning proprietor, letting the four-time MVP loose on your league is like stumbling upon First Blood on TV: you’re fully aware of the carnage that is set to unfold, but it never ceases to delight.

FOX Fantasy Football

Create your FOX Fantasy Football league today for free. Live scoring, mock drafts, customizable leagues and more.

At first glance, Manning’s 2010 performance echoed this historical excellence: a career-high 4,700 yards (second in the NFL), 33 touchdowns (tied for second), and a 66.3 completion percentage (second). Yet closer assessment articulates reason for worry, with chinks in the armor clouding Manning’s 2011 fantasy forecast.

After a marvelous start in September (1,013 yards, nine touchdowns, zero picks and a 116.9 QB rating), Manning appeared well on his way to another spectacular season. But with the onset of October, Manning became, dare I say, human, throwing 17 interceptions to 24 touchdowns. Manning did accumulate nearly 3,700 yards in the last 13 games of 2010, but owned an undistinguished 86.2 QB rating. The 17 seizures by opposing squads were Manning’s most since the 2002 season, and his 10.4 yards per completion was a career-low. His 91.9 QB rating on the year was good for 10th in the league, but Manning’s figure hadn’t been below a 95.0 figure in eight seasons. Once proclaimed as a skillful surgeon under center, Manning’s malpractices were suddenly commonplace.

It’s worth noting that a multitude of fantasy owners would welcome this output with open arms, and in leagues that favor completions, Manning still ranks supreme. However, his noticeable drop in efficiency isn’t the only cause for concern. Manning underwent neck surgery in late May to mend a bulging disk, his second operation around the collar in as many years. While he has begun to run and throw on the sidelines and is projected to be on the field for the season opener, Manning remains on the PUP list. Without Manning procuring the proper reps during training camp, the celebrated sync of the Indianapolis offense may be out of whack.

An additional alarm is Manning’s rising mileage. Thanks to Brett Favre’s annual retirement wavering, we tend to disregard the effect aging has on a player’s performance. The term “geriatric” may not apply to Manning, but at 35, spring chicken he is not. Dan Marino, ahead of Manning in career touchdowns and yards, began to show significant decline at age 35. Same with Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas. Pigskin pundits will claim Favre shined into his late 30s, but in reality the gunslinger was wildly inconsistent outside of his 2009 season. Translation: all arms deteriorate at some point. Granted, modern medicine can prolong an athlete’s career, and Manning keeps himself in stellar shape, but a human body can only take so many hits. Couple this sentiment with his recovery from neck surgery and it’s not unrealistic to believe Manning may be wearing out.

NFL Sim-Matchup

Love NFL history? Simulate any NFL game for FREE! Check out Whatifsports.com's NFL SimMatchup.

It seems sacrilegious to slot Manning outside the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks, but the above influences suggest this is the case. Out of respect, and maybe a bit because of habit, I have the former Tennessee Vol at no. 5 at the QB position. The Colts still employ a pass-happy offensive attack, and a porous Indianapolis defense (ranked 23rd in points per game) will equate to an abundance of attempts for Manning.

Nevertheless, Manning’s fantasy aura of invincibility is diminished. What use to be the safest selection in the draft now comes with question marks. His run as a fantasy foundation may not be over, but he’s nearing the finishline.