Jackson, Benson forecasted to flop

I’ve read 1,000 Tweets in the past 48 hours that speak of the glorious return of the NFL season. The positivity flowing through the Twitter-verse, Facebook and the media world is overwhelming. Everyone is geeked for the return of football action, and I suspect that the ratings for college football might receive a bump as well.

This year feels a bit different. The post-lockout world has everybody talking about the good to be found on each team. I mean, we’re reading positive reports about Cleveland, Detroit and even the Washington quarterback battle.

In this piece, I’m making the record skip. II’m going down the negative vibe once again. I’m holding several of the game’s elite running backs up to the microscope and I’m searching for cracks. They’re all still top selections, but owners need to be mindful of potential downside.

I’ll get the controversy started by focusing on Houston tailback Arian Foster.

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Arian Foster, HOU

Analysis: I know. You’re already cocking your fist and shouting angry, hateful words at me. Perhaps a Tweet sets off a firestorm. Stand down for a moment, please. I love the scheme. I love the player. I love the offensive makeup of this squad.

Let me explain why Foster makes the list.

The Texans shifted their mentality, to some degree, coming into the 2011 season. Wade Phillips was hired to lead the defense. Say what you will about Phillips’ run as a head coach in Dallas or his “Aww, shucks” demeanor at times. The man can coach defense. After hiring Phillips, the team drafted defensive player after defensive player in the NFL Draft back in April, and they secured Danieal Manning and Jonathan Joseph in free agency.

To that end, I’m expecting a less frenetic pace from Houston games in 2011. The wide-open, run-and-gun style of the past several seasons may be a thing of the past.

Additionally, Ben Tate has looked fantastic in his preseason work. So, as much as there may be a desire to run with Foster as the workhorse, the second-year man out of Auburn may force the issue. Foster’s lingering hamstring issues don’t help. I’m more concerned about a change in philosophy in what is a pivotal year for Gary Kubiak.

Tim Hightower, WAS

Analysis: He’s the BUZZ player of the exhibition season. Hightower has emerged as the favored tailback in the Shanahan system right now and has taken full advantage of Ryan Torain’s injury. We all loved his goal-line plunges and PPR capabilities in Arizona. We also cursed each of his lost fumbles that ultimately forced the Cardinals to move him out of town.

There is a lot to like about Hightower in this system. I’m just nervous that the Shanahan tendency to shuffle tailbacks occurs and that Shanahan favorite Ryan Torain or rookie Roy Helu (super ninja) enters the picture to pilfer touches and opportunities. What happens after the first lost fumble or when Hightower gets stuffed in a short-yardage situation?

Obviously, we love Shanahan’s track record of producing dominant tailbacks. As such, it’s hard not to be enamored with Hightower’s early success. Just beware the early BUZZ factor and don’t reach for him too early.

Steven Jackson, STL

Analysis: I probably like Steven Jackson more than most as the 2011 season approaches. He’ll receive more support from the passing games than he’s seen in ages as Sam Bradford comes into his own.

However, I would be foolish to ignore the 751 touches that Jackson has amassed during the past two seasons in this context. Jackson will turn 28 in July and has already logged 2,205 touches in his seven-year NFL career.

The Rams signed Carnell “Cadillac” Williams this offseason, but he’s no threat to Jackson’s workload. As such, Jackson figures to amass another touch count in 2011. The question is whether this heretofore consistent and durable tailback (he did miss a total of eight games in the 2007 and 2008 seasons) can hit the 300-touch threshold again.

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Peyton Hillis, CLE

Analysis: I preface this entry by saying this. Hillis just might come out of the gate as a beast if his back doesn’t flare up. He’s got a solid schedule in the first 11 weeks of the Browns season. The month of December will be awful, with all four games against the Ravens and Steelers on the slate (one of the Pittsburgh games is in Week 17, so that’s not a huge issue).

Still, I couldn’t put this list together without including Hillis. The Madden cover boy (I’m assuming that you’re enjoying this with speech technology while playing) climbed to the top of the depth chart following a series of injuries in the Cleveland backfield and never looked back. Hillis earned over 1,600 total yards and 13 touchdowns for the pesky Browns. Following his 2010 production, I can’t leave him off the list, though I don’t predict that he runs into a wall (if he does, he just might go through it).

It does have to be acknowledged that Hillis failed to score in his final five games of the season. He was shut down altogether by the Ravens and Steelers in Weeks 16 and 17. Hillis will benefit from a more balanced offense orchestrated by second-year starter Colt McCoy and will remain a primary target in the passing game (he caught 61 passes in 2010).

I mentioned Hillis’ back injury early and, while we normally downplay most training camp injuries, this stands as one to watch. Also, Hillis may cede touches to the healthy Montario Hardesty and veteran pickup Brandon Jackson along the way.

He’s drafted in the mid-RB2 range at present, but there’s an opportunity for this to go either way.

Cedric Benson, CIN

Analysis: The Bengals re-signed Benson to lend a veteran face among the fresh-faced youngsters running the Cincinnati offense. He’s operated as a workhorse in the past two seasons for Cincinnati, amassing a total of 667 touches. I have to wonder whether Bernard Scott, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry in limited opportunities last season, plays a bigger role.

A bigger concern is the current state of the Cincinnati offense. Everybody got excited when the Bengals connected on a few big pass plays in the third preseason game. Remember, they played the Panthers, a team that is expected to struggle mightily under first-year coach Ron Rivera.

Benson figures to be running into an eight-man wall this season, even more so than he did during Carson Palmer’s injury season.

Darren McFadden, OAK

Analysis: This list is littered with some of my favorite players to watch, and McFadden is no exception. His explosiveness in the open field is well-chronicled, and the Raiders have ranked among the league’s top rushing units in the past several seasons. In 2010, McFadden also added 47 receptions out of the backfield to rank second on the team. I don’t suspect that much changes in the Hue Jackson era, particularly once the Raiders’ only sure-handed option left in free agency (Zach Miller to Seattle).

However, I do have to recognize McFadden’s injury history during this evaluation process. He’s missed 10 games during his three-year career and has been on the injury report for countless others. McFadden headlined the early in-camp stories in 2011 when he was sidelined because of an eye injury.

Additionally, the Raiders resigned Michael Bush this offseason and Taiwan Jones, a fourth-round selection from Eastern Washington, has made a name for himself in camp. Lest we forget, fullback Marcel Reece (a converted tight end) also logged 55 touches in 2010.

Say what you will about the Tom Cable era, and there are ample stories to be told. They ran the ball well. Will the loss of Robert Gallery disrupt the team’s recent stay among the league’s best running squads?

Will McFadden stay healthy and pile up the touches and yards?

He joins Michael Vick on the Fantasy Mount Rushmore of high-risk, high-reward players for 2011.

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Frank Gore, SF

Analysis: Gore posted a fantastic opening to the 2010 season. He amassed 1,300 total yards and five touchdowns in 11 games before sustaining his season-ending hip injury.

The 49ers are a very interesting team under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. The quarterback situation remains ugly, with Alex Smith back under center while Colin Kaepernick quickly works to get up to speed. The team signed Braylon Edwards to stand as the No. 1 option while Michael Crabtree deals with his foot issues. Vernon Davis is the lone sure option.

One shining light at the end of the tunnel is that the offensive line grew up a bit last year. The 49ers started two rookies in 2010.

The big question (other than at QB) concerns Gore’s ability to get back into action at a high level. He has completed only one of his six NFL seasons and returns from last season’s hip injury.

The potential is there for Gore to post a huge return to the field. He’s averaged 1,450 total yards and 7.3 total touchdowns during his career as well as 45 receptions. The potential for a Comeback Player of the Year-type campaign is there. But, owners assume sizable risk with Gore’s selection.

Michael Turner, ATL

Analysis: I needed to circle back to one of the NFC favorites for this entry. Longtime readers of my work here know of my affinity for the fireplug out of Northern Illinois. The seventh-year tailback toiled as a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson for years in San Diego and racked up few miles. As such, he wasn’t tracking on the mileage counter in the same fashion as his colleagues.

Turner became one of the league’s top workhorses upon arriving in Atlanta. Since joining the Falcons, Turner has amassed 911 touches. Any thoughts of “low mileage” went to the wayside in a hurry. Fantasy owners are now trying to read the tea leaves to assess whether Turner will hit the proverbial wall at age 28 after compiling such a large number of touches in the past three years.

Atlanta selected Jacquizz Rodgers in the fifth round of the NFL Draft and brought back Jason Snelling. I love the Atlanta offense and I still rate Turner highly, perhaps higher than most. But, I must be a realist on some level. Turner’s running style and continual pounding will catch up eventually.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE

Analysis: We talk about the issues of riding a tailback and feeling secure in Washington (as I did above) or New Orleans, but I would be remiss if I failed to toss the Patriots into the mix. Green-Ellis posted a fantastic 2010 season (1,008 yards and 13 touchdowns) alongside Danny Woodhead to lead the New England offense. I’m fearful that rookie Stevan Ridley, a bulldozer out of LSU who has dominated in short-yardage situations this preseason, muddies the waters.

Green-Ellis doesn’t require a huge investment, as he’s routinely drafted as a late-RB2 or RB3. Who doesn’t love his running style? I’m merely suggesting that “The Law Firm” has competition for the glory touches.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC

Analysis: Jones-Drew has finally been cleared for game duty and will be one of few “regulars” to put in time during the final run of exhibition games this weekend. He’s been shut down since undergoing arthroscopic surgery following the 2010 season. I’m not ready to write him off by any means (I still had him seventh among RBs in my last update), but there are reasons to be concerned.

- First is the most obvious question of MJD’s health.

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- Second, how long is the leash on David Garrard before rookie Blaine Gabbert takes over? Gabbert’s arrival would certainly shift defensive focus and put more attention in the box.

- Third, the Jaguars shifted looks in the red zone with Marcedes Lewis (re-signed with a huge deal coming off of his Pro Bowl 2010 season), thereby snatching some of those opportunities from MJD.

- Finally, there was a groundswell of support for backup Rashad Jennings to see more time. Jennings has been sidelined because of a concussion and a knee issue in camp, but could challenge for touches once sound.

Ryan Mathews, SD

Analysis: The duel-threat skills that pushed Mathews up into the first round of 2010 fantasy drafts have been displayed in the past two exhibition games. Mathews ran for 35 yards on seven carries, including a 15-yard touchdown run against the Cowboys in Week 2. He then rolled up 69 yards on 10 carries in the comeback win over the Cardinals. As a result, Mathews is starting to creep up draft boards again.

Mathews is currently being selected as a mid-RB2, a reasonable level for his potential. I have two caution flags to toss up with regard to Mathews.

First, Mathews’ durability is a huge concern, and the early-2011 conditioning concerns leave me nervous. Might the Chargers hold back his workload in an effort to keep him sound?

Second, there’s that pesky Mike Tolbert. Tolbert, who resembles me in size, although there is six degrees of separation in terms of Swollness, is well-known in fantasy circles as a dominant goal-line force. Fans are quick to forget that Tolbert did some fantastic work between the tackles in Mathews’ absence during the 2010 season.

Mathews’ upside is huge, but so is the shadow being cast by Tolbert (37th among running backs), who just might work a full-on split of the workload.