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RB analysis: Gore's ready to emerge
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The rankings for the rest of the top running backs are debatable. Let's review the rest of the top 10 running backs, along with the best and worst of the rest.
1. Shaun Alexander, Seattle
Last year's No. 1 fantasy back led the league in rushing yards (1,880 yards) and set the NFL's single-season record for touchdowns (28). He will be missing just one major piece in the bid to be fantasy's top back, and that's the unlucky loss of one of the league's best guards, Steve Hutchinson. That only happened because of a loophole that Minnesota exploited for signing other team's restricted free agents.
Given a new contract this off-season, Alexander will be dealing without the stress of contentious negotiations with the front office that made headlines in the preseason, regular season and postseason. While Alexander may be hard-pressed to repeat his record, his past history speaks for itself. Consider his worst-case scenario in the past five seasons: he's run for no fewer than 1,175 yards and scored no less than 16 touchdowns.
The Seahawks still retain one of the league's offensive minds (Mike Holmgren) and best quarterbacks (Matt Hasselbeck). That will yield many open running lanes and touchdown chances. That's good enough for first.
2. Larry Johnson, Kansas City
Consider that Johnson skyrocketed to fantasy's No. 3 running back after starting the first seven games on the bench. Johnson proved his detractors wrong, including his oft-critical head coach Dick Vermeil. All he did was total 1,627 yards and 17 touchdowns in nine starts. That projects to an astounding 2,892 total yards and 30 scores over 16 starts. New coach Herm Edwards is a big supporter and has plans to feature the running attack more. Johnson's eye-opening productivity, combined with his potential, propel him to a lofty perch as the second-highest ranked running back. This fast riser on the chart has come a long way since being a late-round sleeper in many 2005 fantasy drafts.
However, considering that All-Pro left tackle Willie Roaf says he will retire, the Chiefs switched head coaches, lost their proficient offensive coordinator Al Saunders to Washington and need to adjust to a new system, that may be a lot to ask for someone who was a sleeper last year to be this year's fantasy's top back. Settling for No. 2 this year isn't half bad, either.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
How will new starting second-year quarterback Philip Rivers affect Tomlinson's 2006 stats? If history is any indication, expect Tomlinson to repeat his 2002 career season when Drew Brees made his first start as San Diego's quarterback in also his second year. Tomlinson ran for career-highs of 372 carries for 1,683 yards and scored 15 touchdowns in ‘02.
Look for Tomlinson to be heavily used again to carry the weight of the offense instead of depending on Rivers' passing in key situations. Tomlinson's biggest question will be staying injury free. He struggled at the season's end with injuries appearing to affect his play when his averaged dipped to 3.4 yards in Weeks 13-16. Of comparison, he averaged 4.3 for the season.
4. Tiki Barber, New York Giants
Though Barber was one of fantasy's top backs in 2004, he lacked the ranking respect of Alexander or Tomlinson last season. Since Barber was projected to be replaced in goal-line situations, he was downgraded in drafts despite his outstanding all-around yardage stats. Though he was replaced by rookie Brandon Jacobs inside the 5-yard-line at times, Barber still scored 11 touchdowns after registering 15 in the previous year.
He simply led the NFL in total yards with 2,390 yards when he played. Barber carried the Giants' offense by easing the pressure from inexperienced quarterback Eli Manning. This season, his scoring chances could increase outside the 5-yard line with the maturation of Manning.
Despite being built like a third-down back more than a burly featured runner, Barber was stronger as the season progressed. He strung 11 straight games of at least 100 total yards in the regular season, including three 200-yard rushing games. As the Giants made their push to make the playoffs, he compiled two in the final three regular-season games.
5. Clinton Portis, Washington
After struggling to run and score with Washington's inefficient offense in 2004, Portis increased his rushing prowess and touchdown totals last season. His improvement coincided with Mark Brunell's resurgence, and even better things are predicted for Portis with receiving off-season upgrades. Adding wide receivers Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El will help keep defenses from solely focusing on Portis and Santana Moss.
The addition of Saunders as the offensive coordinator bodes well for Portis this season and beyond. Saunders helped built Kansas City into one of the league's best rushing teams and set records like the NFL's former single-season touchdown mark (27) by Priest Holmes in 2003. Look for Portis to have more running room and the chance to use his speed to break long-gainers.
6. Steven Jackson, St. Louis
New coach Scott Linehan plans to increase the Rams' running and utilize a balanced attack, more so than last year. Jackson ranked only 17th among starting running backs in carries (254). Former Broncos' Mike Anderson was only 15 handoffs behind despite sharing carries with Tatum Bell. Jackson, 23, is ready for a breakthrough season with an expanded role. He also offers proficient receiving skills, finishing with the ninth-highest number of receptions (43) among running backs. In addition, expect more stability from the coaching staff after last year's turmoil with head coach Mike Martz.
7. Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati
He's a model of consistency for the past two seasons since being handed the starting job. He's played in all 32 regular-season games, averaging 1,456 yards and 12 touchdowns each season. Though Cincinnati's Carson Palmer had devastating knee injuries in January, he may be ready for the season opener. A healthy Palmer will keep Johnson's scoring chances high. A strong offensive line will pave many openings for Johnson, making him a safe choice to be a 1,000-yard runner. Receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh will force secondaries to respect the pass, easing on the number of defenders set to stop Johnson.
Though he's removed in passing situations in favor of Chris Perry, Johnson remains the featured and goal-line back. He's also played better down the stretch, helping fantasy teams to their title run. After rushing for 100 yards just once and scoring just two touchdowns in the first eight games, Johnson had three 100-yard games and 10 touchdowns in the final eight games.
8. LaMont Jordan, Oakland
This former backup to Curtis Martin showed he could handle the full-time duties for 14 games before missing the final two with an injury. He thrived in Norv Turner's running back-friendly offense, gaining the ninth-most total yards (1,588) and the most receptions (70) among running backs. He also scored the league's seventh-most touchdowns (11).
However, the Raiders fired Turner and replaced him with Art Shell. It remains to be seen if Jordan will be used extensively as last season. In Jordan's favor, the former great offensive lineman promotes the running attack and will employ a hard-nosed, aggressive offensive line.
The biggest obstacle that Jordan may face in repeating his career season is the downgrade at quarterback from Kerry Collins to Aaron Brooks. Based upon both of their play last season, Oakland's passing attack will be more inefficient, especially if Brooks continues to struggle. But, if Brooks can establish a rapport with Moss downfield and command respect of the secondary, expect Jordan to benefit and continue as one of the league's top all-around running backs.
9. Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay
Last year's Rookie-of-the-Year was showered with high expectations after setting an NFL record for most rushing yards in the first three games of a career. He averaged 145 rushing yards and scored twice during that incredible stretch. However, not used to being the full-time back, Williams buckled under the load of 27, 24 and an astounding 37 carries. He then missed Weeks 5 and 6 with leg injuries and was rendered ineffective in the next four games played, averaging just 11.3 carries for 20.5 yards. Expect Williams to be better equipped to handle the featured role after learning from his rookie season, and his coaches to use him more judiciously in a game.
10. Domanick Davis, Houston
Davis is extremely productive when he plays, evident to Houston when it bypassed college's top talent Reggie Bush with its first overall draft pick. He averaged an impressive 119 total yards in 11 starts for the league's third-worst offense last year and was one of fantasy's top running backs in 2004 when he totaled 1,776 yards, 68 receptions and 14 touchdowns.
Now directed by a new coach and former Broncos offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, Davis' darting, cutback runs could pay big dividends within zone blocking schemes brought from Denver. But the question remains with his checkered injury history, "How much will he play?" After missing the final five games last year, Davis reportedly underwent a knee scope last December. The coaches plan to limit him in practice until he improves.
Still, the team upgraded its offensive line with the addition of wily veteran Mike Flanagan from Green Bay. Kubiak has already labeled quarterback David Carr as the team's most improved player. A threat of a legitimate passing attack, helped by the addition of Eric Moulds at wideout, means Davis would have fewer defenders to elude. Whether he duplicates his outstanding 2004 season will depend on his health, so his progress in the preseason will be closely monitored.
Best Value
Mike Bell/Tatum Bell, Denver
Updated August 9
Playing for one of the league's top systems for running backs has its advantages. Running backs turn golden when playing for Denver. See Terrell Davis, Anderson and Portis recently, along with one-year wonder Olandis Gary. Tatum Bell's stiffest competition on paper entering training camp was Ron Dayne, whose career production leaves much to be desired. One obstacle in his way now is undrafted rookie Mike Bell from University of Arizona. Mike Bell has surprised in training camp and was named Denver's starter after the first week.
Though Mike Bell could be listed No. 1 on the depth chart entering the opener, he may still share carries with Tatum Bell. The third-year runner was a productive fantasy starter last season as the second runner and wants to make the climb as a featured back. He has averaged 5.3 yards in each of his first two seasons. He's had time to learn pass receiving and blocking skills and can emerge as a featured back in his third season, rather than sharing carries.
If Mike Shanahan decides to make Mike Bell or Tatum Bell as the featured back, either would produce like a fantasy No. 1 back. If both share carries like last year's scenario of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell last season, each will have value as a fantasy starter at fantasy's No. 2 running back spot.
Best surprise
Frank Gore, San Francisco
A running back-centered system can make regular runners into great fantasy ones, and that's been true of 49ers new offensive coordinator Norv Turner in producing stars of Terry Allen (Washington), Stephen Davis (Washington) and LaMont Jordan (Oakland). That's not to mention his best body of work with the NFL's all-time leading rusher Emmitt Smith.
Simply put, Gore has displayed a better talent and desire to win the starting running back job in training camp over the erratic Kevan Barlow. The rookie showed more power, speed and energy than the lethargic Barlow last season. The hard-nosed Gore averaged 4.8 yards per carry, far outproducing Barlow who averaged a lowly 3.3 yards last season. This isn't a one-year aberration of poor production as Barlow averaged 3.4 yards in 2004.
The 49ers upgraded their offensive line, too, by adding the dominating Larry Allen at guard. Gore's biggest liability is his injury history. He tore an ACL in both knees in separate years at University Miami and missed two games with injuries as a rookie.
However, not only can Gore be a fantasy sleeper, but he can flourish for fantasy teams as a weekly starter. Watch him break tackles and outrun defenders en route to a 100-yard rushing day.
Worst flop
Edgerrin James, Arizona
James will be a 1,000-yard rusher this season by virtue of the number of carries and is rightfully a first-round pick in 12-team fantasy drafts. But as a top-five fantasy pick of the past, James will disappoint if he's taken there again, and even ahead of runners like Steven Jackson and Rudi Johnson.
It will be vastly more difficult for James to run for 1,500 yards and score double-digit touchdowns with the ease he did in Indianapolis. James had the running back's equivalent of riding the gravy train with the Colts. Peyton Manning caused headaches for defensive coordinators, let alone did many plan to stop Indy's running attack.
While he is one of the league's top all-around backs, James will receive a rude awakening facing slivers of running room, instead of being given canyon-sized openings. Arizona's blocking is inferior to Indianapolis, and that means James will need to work harder for his yards. He's already transformed from an explosive back to a power one after enduring season-ending ACL surgery in 2001. What will frustrate his owners the most will be receiving the production of an 80-yard rusher with a biweekly touchdown, rather than being given 100 yards and a touchdown every week expected of a high first-round pick.
Worst Injury Flop
Julius Jones, Dallas
While DeShaun Foster and Fred Taylor are injuries waiting to happen, Jones is another back who may be unable to shake the injury bug. Coach Bill Parcells is itching for Jones to be another Curtis Martin or even an Otis Anderson; one who consistently handles 20-plus carries without missing games.
Unfortunately, Jones has yet to show the ability to be durable and handle full-time responsibilities. He's already missed 11 games in two seasons with injuries. At Notre Dame, he missed a game in 2000 and was limited in the 2001 finale because of injuries, and shared carries in those two years.
He lacks the college rushing experience of many other starting running backs in the NFL. Jones shared attempts with others in 2000 and 2001 at Notre Dame. College teammate Tony Fisher posted a better rushing average than Jones in 2000, compiling a 4.6 average to Jones' 4.1. Quarterback Carlyle Holiday only had 12 fewer carries than Jones in 2001 and compiled the same rushing average, 4.3. In addition, Jones made his biggest mark in college as a proficient returner, not necessarily as a runner.
Dallas had the chance to draft Steven Jackson in the first round but may continue to regret the decision to take Jones with the second pick. Insure Jones by drafting backup Marion Barber in the later rounds.
Best backup
Mike Anderson, Baltimore
A few running back rookies like Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai and LenDale White can explode on the fantasy scene with an opportunity. However, Anderson is one running back who already has the experience of rushing for 1,000 yards. Jamal Lewis is returning from his worst season as a pro and is susceptible to injuries. If Lewis cannot withstand the punishment of another season, he can be replaced by Anderson as the featured back.
Best rookie
Joseph Addai, Indianapolis
While Laurence Maroney and DeAngelo Williams are behind accomplished veteran backs, Addai is competing with a recent backup runner in Dominic Rhodes. Addai has the physical skills to overtake Rhodes. Addai was timed as one of the draft's fastest rookies, and Scout.com tags him with the ability to combine powerful inside rushes and explosive open field running. Despite being just a rookie, Addai already offers receiving and blocking skills, vital for Indy's running back. Rhodes was used mostly as a short-yardage back last season, accounting for his career low 3.0 yards per carry. Addai offers the gamebreaking, big-play ability that the Colts offense has lacked with James and Rhodes.
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