RB sleepers: Is Edge a bargain?
So, the names on my 2007 fantasy running back sleeper board won't be shocking. Well, maybe one or two of them. On the bigger picture, I'm forecasting a return to prominence for a few former fantasy heroes. Let's begin in the desert.
Last year's struggles in Arizona and the emergence of sexier new models in the backfield have forced Edgerrin James down the draft board. Those drafting James as their second back may just get a monster bargain. The Cardinals hired Ken Whisenhunt to run the show, and he brought along Russ Grimm to run the line (why isn't this man in the HOF? That's another column). Their arrival, along with that of monster lineman Levi Brown, has me optimistic that the long-awaited change is on the horizon for the Cardinals in 2007. Matt Leinart will be in his first full season as the starter, receiving the lion's share of reps, and the countless receiving options will give Whisenhunt more than ample opportunity to spread the field. And that means a return to prominence for James in 2007.
Gary Kubiak's offensive philosophy and upgrades in personnel this season make Ahman Green a most intriguing back this season. Green still possesses good speed and can break tackles. Most importantly, he'll allow Kubiak to eschew the committee situation that we saw in 2006 (sorry, Ron Dayne fans). That's music to the ears for fantasy owners. I would expect Green to ramp up his receiving totals again to aid in Matt Schaub's comfort as a first-year starter. I know Green holds his receiving skills near and dear from having spoken with him about the subject extensively in the past. Lest we forget, former Packers head coach Mike Sherman is the new coordinator in Houston, and Green's biggest years came under him.
Detroit added Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett to the backfield this season, but the team remains optimistic that Kevin Jones will be ready for action as the season opens in September. He scored six touchdowns and rushed for nearly 700 yards before missing the final three games of the year. If Jones can reclaim his starting role in Mike Martz's offense, the upside is huge. Jon Kitna will be more comfortable in year two, and all that I've heard and seen from Calvin Johnson indicates that he'll be an impact player immediately. Their ability to stretch the field will open cavernous running lanes for the winner of the job.
LenDale White is listed as the No. 1 running back on the Titans' depth chart, but he's going to need to show Jeff Fisher and the staff something special as the summer opens. Otherwise, the door is wide open for rookie Chris Henry from Arizona to step into the spotlight. Travis Henry (not a sleeper in Denver, but there may be some non-believers in your league) ran well behind this offensive line last year, and Vince Young should mature as a passer. The only question is how well his receiving corps shapes up. The addition of Keyshawn Johnson would have been a huge coup. We'll have to wait and see how David Givens and a series of unknowns (led by Brandon Jones) work into the mix.
The Bills waved goodbye to Willis McGahee and brought in California's Marshawn Lynch in the first round of this year's draft. He's impressed coaches early with his breakaway speed, which we anticipated, but his ability as a receiver has Dick Jauron most intrigued. The offensive line will be improved over last year's struggles, and more consistent play from J.P. Losman will translate into more spread fields for Lynch. Once he hits the second level of a defense, forget about it. It'll be a footrace to the house.
Carnell Williams struggled through a terrible sophomore season, beset by constant shuffling and injuries to the offensive line and inconsistent play at the quarterback position. The team addressed the offensive line this off-season and brought in Jeff Garcia to battle Chris Simms for the top spot (as we assume Jake Plummer stays retired). Williams was held to fewer than 50 rushing yards nine times last season. That won't happen again with any semblance of consistent play at the quarterback position.
Second-year back Jerious Norwood figures to get more time this year in Bobby Petrino's offense. With Warrick Dunn getting a year older and Petrino looking to help Michael Vick become a more consistent performer, the speedy Norwood will offer a potent game-breaking option in the backfield. Norwood achieved two 100-yard rushing games and five games with 60 or more rushing yards while only claiming double-digit carries in three games. Reports from Atlanta have Norwood working extensively on his receiving, which would make him even more valuable in this offense with a number of inconsistent targets in the offense behind off-season acquisition Joe Horn.
The Packers seemingly have an open competition for the tailback position with longtime star and fantasy stud Ahman Green (see above) off to Houston. Second-round pick Brandon Jackson from Nebraska made a strong impression with his openness about wanting to miss scheduled appearances to appear at the team's mid-May mini-camp. That hunger bodes well for his potential in this offense. Jackson averaged 5.3 yards per carry for the Cornhuskers last season with eight touchdowns. One thing to watch here is that Jackson catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield, something that made Green a fantasy monster several years back.
If you go in early for Clinton Portis, be sure to circle back quickly for Ladell Betts. If not, another savvy owner in your league might be looking at a veritable steal. Betts rumbled for 1,154 yards last season at an average of 4.7 yards per carry. He amassed six games with at least 100 rushing yards and will figure into Joe Gibbs' plans this year. How much he'll play early on depends on the health of Portis' knee.
He's deep on the depth chart after signing as an undrafted free agent, but former Texas Longhorns running back Selvin Young joins the ranks of the Denver backfield. Young currently sits at least third in the pecking order behind Travis Henry and Mike Bell, but he's one to watch as we get into camps. As we know, the system works. It's just a matter of getting this powerhouse an opportunity.
The Bears selected speedster Garrett Wolfe out of Northern Illinois in this year's draft, and he'll compete for reps behind Cedric Benson. He possesses breakaway speed and offers great touchdown and an improved ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Wolfe averaged 6.4 yards per carry in his college career. He'll get a shot to make an impact in Lovie Smith's offense.
Finally, the Oakland backfield already has two veterans in LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes. However, the new-look Raiders under Lane Kiffin will be seeking to shed the doldrums of the recent past and it's possible that Michael Bush eventually works his way into the top spot this season. Bush's injury history pushed him down on draft boards, but the sky's the limit if he can return to his prior form. He averaged nearly six yards per carry in college, and was positively unstoppable in the red zone.
Mike Harmon is a fantasy contributor for FOXSports.com. He has authored two books, The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Sports and The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Football. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question a question or comment? , and the best ones may appear in his show or column.
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