QB analysis: Manning tops list
However, potential disappointments like Michael Vick, Steve McNair and Trent Green lurk where owners should draft other signal callers or take a chance on a sleeper running back or wide receiver instead.
1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
He's the model of consistency among all fantasy quarterbacks, passing for at least 4,000 yards in seven of his nine seasons and completing at least 26 touchdown passes in every year. What's impressive is that those feats are difficult for quarterbacks to achieve in a single season. Only five signal callers (Brees, Manning, Bulger, Palmer and Jon Kitna) reached 4,000 yards last season, and only three quarterbacks (Manning, Palmer and Brees) threw for at least 26 touchowns in 2006. But Manning has achieved those baselines on nearly a yearly basis. In fact, Manning has a legitimate chance to finish first in passing yards and touchdowns every season. This past year, Manning finished first in touchdown passes (31) and missed being No. 1 in passing yards (4,397) by just 22 yards.
This season, Indy's defense is expected to be weaker after several free-agent defections. This will force the Colts to win mostly by outscoring opponents with an aggressive passing attack, rather than successfully protecting leads by accumulating time of possession with a more conservative, running game.
In addition, its No. 1 draft pick, wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, is well-suited for the slot position on crossing patterns and will have a talent advantage over nickel cornerbacks. This will provide Manning with a potent gamebreaker for his No. 3 receiver and making it even more difficult for defenses to cover Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
He could be in line to exceed last year's passing totals and approach his season highs set in 2004 of 4,557 yards and 49 touchdowns.
2. Tom Brady, New England
Despite working with one of the league's worst receiving groups, Brady still threw for the league's seventh-most yards (3,529) and the fourth-most scores (24) last season. Aging veteran Troy Brown was the only one among New England's receivers that had clinched a 1,000-yard season for his career, and he had achieved that distinction five years ago in 2001.
Now, though, Brady has been given three new wideouts to replace last year's top three wide receiver targets. Randy Moss, Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker comprise one of the league's most talented trio of receivers. That's a significant upgrade from last year's top three wideouts of Reche Caldwell (61 catches for 760 yards), Troy Brown (43 catches, 483 yards) and Chad Jackson (13 catches for 152 yards).
Expect Brady to have a strong chance to set new career highs in passing yards (4,110) and touchdowns (28).
3. Drew Brees, New Orleans
He exploded in his first season with the Saints, finishing first in passing yards (4,418) and third in touchdowns (26). Add in a second season in Sean Payton's potent offensive system, and expect Brees to remain as one of fantasy's top quarterbacks again. As an indication of his passing prowess, Brees clinched eight games of at least 300 yards, including one of 510 yards in Week 11 last year. His best receiver Marques Colston will only be better in his second year. Receiving a full season of health from Colston will also only help to ensure that Brees reaches 4,000 yards again.
4. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
A season-ending injury in the 2005 playoffs contributed to Palmer's slow start last season. He compiled four games where he threw one or zero touchdowns in the first half of the season compared to just two such contests in the second half. In addition, Palmer averaged only 234 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in the first eight contests compared to 270 yards and two touchdowns in final eight games. Using his final eight games as the barometer for this season, Palmer's stats would project to him setting a career high in passing yards (4,320) and matching his career high of a league-leading 32 touchdowns set in 2005. Though No. 3 wideout Chris Henry is suspended for the first eight contests, Palmer will be throwing to one of the league's top receiving duos in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.5. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
Though McNabb is being drafted after Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer and even Bulger, he was projected to pass for 4,567 yards and 32 touchdowns over a full season before his season-ending injury in the Eagles' 10th game. That would have clinched him as fantasy's top quarterback last season. He was also having an outstanding season in 2005 when he passed for 2,507 yards and 16 touchdowns before a sports hernia ended his season after nine games.
Unlike the top four quarterbacks in front of him, McNabb also offers the bonus of rushing stats. He ran for 212 yards and three touchdowns last season. However, though his recent knee surgery may curtail his running production, McNabb still offers superb passing skills as an experienced signal caller in the productive West Coast offense to rank among the league's top fantasy quarterbacks.
Though the team lost Donte' Stallworth, Kevin Curtis provides a reliable, speedy target for McNabb. In addition, Stallworth has been more prone to injuries than Curtis. In addition, Reggie Brown is ready to clinch his first 1,000-yard season in as Philly's top wideout in his third season. L.J. Smith remains one of the league's top receiving tight ends, while running back Brian Westbrook has been one of the league's most dynamic backfield receiving threats.
6. Marc Bulger, St. Louis
Under the guidance of new coach Scott Linehan, Bulger established career highs in passing yards (4,301) and touchdowns (24) last season. The Rams added Tennessee's No. 1 wideout Drew Bennett to provide Bulger with one of the league's top No. 3 wideouts and as insurance against aging Isaac Bruce, 34, as St. Louis' No. 2 receiver. The maturation of the Rams' young offensive line, anchored by All-Pro Orlando Pace, ensures that Bulger will have more time to throw this season. He was sacked the league's second-most times (49) last year.The Rams' running attack has improved immensely with the insertion of Steven Jackson as the featured running back. A more balanced attack will leave defenses focusing less on stopping the passing game led by Bulger and Torry Holt and more on thwarting Jackson. In addition, Jackson's receiving prowess and the addition of Randy McMichael at tight end as another legitimate receiving target will help boost Bulger's passing stats and help him finish among fantasy's top quarterbacks again.
7. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
A sprained knee forced Hasselbeck to miss four games last season, and off-season shoulder surgery put him on the sidelines again. Still, a healthy Hasselbeck means he can repeat his solid 2005 passing stats of 3,459 yards and 24 touchdowns. Deion Branch has replaced the departed Darrell Jackson as Seattle's No. 1 wideout, keeping the talent level intact and upgrading stability at that slot. Injuries had forced Jackson to miss 13 contests in the last two seasons.
Fifth-year wideout Nate Burleson already has one 1,000-yard season under his belt and will be competing to be Seattle's No. 2 wide receiver after spending his first season learning Mike Holmgren's intricate West Coast offense. Bobby Engram remains one of the league's most reliable secondary targets. No longer will Hasselbeck have to contend with an inconsistent Jerramy Stevens at tight end. Replacement tight end Marcus Pollard offers vast experience and is an adequate receiver. A healthy Shaun Alexander translates to an effective running attack, opening up more passing lanes in Holmgren's well-balanced attack. Look for Seattle's offensive line to be improved after learning to cope with the unexpected free-agent departure of All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson last year.
8. Tony Romo, Dallas
Media reports have insisted that Romo has been highly dedicated to improving as the Cowboys' starting quarterback despite appearing in the spotlight as singer Carrie Underwood's significant other. Though he had a tumultuous ending in the playoffs when he botched a last-minute field-goal snap, his reputation as a hard-working, skilled quarterback should pay significant dividends in his first full season of starting for Dallas.
His top receiver, Terrell Owens, is one of the league's most talented receivers and best touchdown makers. Romo owns the strong arm and accuracy to deliver passes adeptly to one of the league's best play-makers. In addition, his mobility helps compensate for the Cowboys' inconsistent offensive line and provides more passing chances to orchestrate big plays. Terry Glenn also offers the skills to emerge as a top receiving threat on a weekly basis, and Jason Witten offers a legitimate target at tight end.
While Romo's learning curve will be helped by the addition of new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, his inexperience will likely lead to some inconsistent outings.
9. Jon Kitna, Detroit
Despite being sacked a league-high 63 times, Jon Kitna still managed to stay upright enough to pass for the league's fourth-most yards (4,208) last season. Adding the draft's No. 2 overall pick, Calvin Johnson, will help boost Kitna's 2006 touchdown total of 21. Throwing to one of the league's best receivers, Roy Williams, and one of the NFL's most productive third receivers, Mike Furrey, means another big season for Kitna in Mike Martz's high-powered offensive system.
The Lions also bolstered their running back depth behind Kevin Jones, adding Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett. A legitimate running game will help prevent defenses from pressuring Kitna heavily as much. Since Martz's system lends itself to increased pressure on the quarterback, Kitna may be at greater risk for injury.
10. Eli Manning, New York Giants
While it appeared that Manning regressed last season, he completed a higher percentage of passes and still equaled his 2005 passing score total of 24. Still, he failed to make the substantial progress expected of a young quarterback in his second full season as his passing yards decreased by 518. He also may be heavily burdened by the departure of Tiki Barber, who provided Manning with a strong running game and was one of the league's top receiving threats from the backfield.
As a result, the Giants' running attack has question marks, putting more pressure on Manning to produce in the passing attack. His two brightest spots are receiving targets Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey. But both offer doubts with Burress' inconsistency and Shockey's frequent nagging injuries. In addition, the Giants lost their best offensive lineman in left tackle Luke Petigout and have yet to replace the crucial spot with a legitimate talent to protect Manning's blind spot.
Best Value as No. 1 QB: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
He could be drafted after a half dozen quarterbacks, but McNabb offers the potential to be fantasy's No. 1 quarterback if he plays a full season.
Best value as No. 2 QB: Philip Rivers, San Diego
He will make the leap into a viable weekly fantasy starter in his second full season of starting. Rivers' mental acuity will catch up to his physical skills this season and enable him to surpass last year's passing stats of 3,388 yards and 22 scores. Add the league's best running back LaDainian Tomlinson and the top tight end Antonio Gates with a strong offensive line to protect him, and Rivers will find single coverages to exploit downfield with talented wideouts like Eric Parker, Vincent Jackson and rookie Craig Davis. He will also be more comfortable in the pocket to increase his multiple touchdown games.
Best value as No. 3 QB: Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay
He's the favorite to land Tampa Bay's starting quarterback and is an excellent fit for Jon Gruden's West Coast offense. He will have the chance to operate like Rich Gannon under Gruden in Oakland, using short timing passes to accumulate big yardage.
Top surprise: J.P. Losman, Buffalo
An improved offensive line and dedicated No. 1 wideout Lee Evans will help Losman surpass his career highs in yards (3,051) and touchdowns (19). After throwing just seven touchdowns in his first nine games, Losman passed for 12 scores in his last seven games, including two three-touchdown days. In addition, rookie running back Marshawn Lynch promises to be a better receiver from the backfield than Willis McGahee, helping boost the yardage totals of Losman.
Top breakout: Jay Cutler, Denver
Reach 3,200 yards or 24 TDs
Indicative of his keen passing and big-play arm, Cutler threw for two touchdowns in each of his first four contests. His five-game totals of 1,001 yards and nine scores projects to 3,203 yards and 29 touchdowns. However, he will need to reduce his propensity for fumbling after losing two of eight fumbles. But a full off-season, training camp and preseason as Denver's starting quarterback will help him establish a greater rapport with wideouts Javon Walker, Rod Smith and Brandon Marshall, and tight ends Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham. Add that defenses must respect one of the league's best running games, and Cutler will take advantage of many single coverages to produce big plays downfield.
Most underrated: Rex Grossman, Chicago
He was the quintessential boom-or-flop player last season, throwing for 18 scores and only one interception in seven games but passing for only five touchdowns and a whopping 19 picks in the other nine games. After learning from his first full season of playing, Grossman will become more consistent and avoid the heavy turnovers that plague many inexperienced quarterbacks. In addition, Chicago's offensive philosophy relies on the big vertical play in the passing game, increasing Grossman's fantasy value. He'll show that he's the big-time quarterback worthy to start in fantasy leagues this season, rather than struggle like a weekly fantasy flop.
Most overrated: Steve McNair, Baltimore
Without the strong ability to rush for significant yardage, McNair becomes a mediocre fantasy quarterback in Baltimore's run-heavy, conservative offense. There's no need for McNair to throw 30-plus times and have a chance for 300-yard days with the Ravens' strong defense preventing opponents from scoring frequently. The Ravens would rather win in a low-scoring output than attempt to post 30 points on the board with an aggressive passing game that brings a greater chance for turnovers.
Top comeback: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's new spread offense utilizing 3-and-4 receiver sets will allow Roethlisberger to quickly find open targets. He'll have an excellent chance to surpass last year's career passing highs of 3,513 yards and 18 touchdowns. Hines Ward is a reliable top possession target, while Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington add speed downfield. Running back Willie Parker is a dangerous receiver and Heath Miller rates as one of the league's better receiving tight ends. After being beset by a motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy last year, Roethlisberger's health may be the biggest reason why he will rebound.
Most questionable receivers: Vince Young, Tennessee
Tennessee has zero 1,000-yard receivers on its roster. Its biggest name is David Givens, and he has been a colossal free-agent flop after missing 11 games last season. Its only significant free-agent signing at receiver this season was signing Bears backup receiver Justin Gage. The departure of Drew Bennett leaves Givens and Gage to battle with inexperienced Brandon Jones, Courtney Roby, Roydell Williams and Givens to battle for the two starting spots. Young may be forced to throw solely to tight ends Ben Troupe and Bo Scaife. Without viable receivers who can elude defensive backs, Young may be forced to tuck and run more often. Yet that may not necessarily be a bad thing at times with his explosive athleticism and unparalleled running skills.
Most disappointing: Michael Vick, Atlanta
Vick should rightfully be a fantasy starter based upon his ability and previous fantasy production. Atlanta's new coach Bobby Petrino is establishing a new offense that gives more control to the quarterback to make reads. However, Vick's legal troubles may preclude him from playing a full season, making him a shaky pick as a fantasy starter. His off-the-field difficulties could distract from his play. Owners should be prepared to draft a strong backup.
Top injury flop: Trent Green, Miami
McNabb is another candidate considering his season has ended short by injuries in each of the past two seasons, but his potential to be a No. 1 fantasy quarterback outweighs his risk at taking him in the fifth round or later. Traded to Miami, Green will be age 37 when he suits up as the Dolphins starting quarterback. Green missed half the season last year with a head injury, showing signs that he may be brittle and more prone to injuries. Miami's offensive line remains questionable, and Green's poor mobility makes him susceptible to further injuries. He's no longer a starting fantasy quarterback, so owners should only draft him as a backup quarterback at best.
Top rookie: JaMarcus Russell, Oakland
Josh McCown is expected to start the season as Oakland's starting quarterback. But the Raiders are expected to reside low in the standings again this season, leaving Russell with a chance to gain hands-on experience in the season's second half. He could follow a similar pattern as Vince Young who became a full-time starter last October. Young recorded four multiple touchdown games in the Titan's last 10 contests, including two three-touchdown outputs. As the draft's No. 1 overall pick, Russell has the great talent to produce solid fantasy stats as early as his rookie season.
Top deep sleeper: Jason Campbell, Washington
After securing the starting spot in Washington's last seven games, Campbell showed promise as a fantasy quarterback as a rookie. He compiled two-touchdown passing games in three contests, indicating he could be a consistent producer as he gains more experience. He is supported by a strong running game and has a trio of talented receivers with Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd and Chris Cooley.
Roger Rotter is a senior editor for FOXSports.com's fantasy games. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question or comment? Send them, and the best ones will be answered in Friday's mailbag column.
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