Fantasy flops: Harrison, L.J. injured too long
The waiver wire was never more active than during this long, strange season where injuries to top-notch players happened on a weekly basis, forcing little-known players to carry owners to titles. Could anyone have anticipated that Earnest Graham, Justin Fargas, and Ryan Grant would become huge contributors? Chris Redman, anyone? How about the return of Kurt Warner to fantasy football superstardom down the stretch?
I'll begin this brief look at those players and teams that left us shaking our heads in Arizona with second-year quarterback Matt Leinart.
Leinart was expected to take a huge leap forward given the offensive weaponry at his disposal. Leinart completed only two games before experiencing a workload split with Warner and his subsequent season-ending injury. He completed 60-of-112 pass attempts (53.6 percent) for 647 yards and just two touchdowns in the five games in which he appeared.
For only the second time in the past 13 years, the Denver running game failed to yield a 1,000-yard rusher. This occurred despite the fact that Denver ranked ninth in the NFL in rushing offense at 122.3 yards per game. Travis Henry joined the backfield this past off-season, and fantasy owners set out to nab the man who most assuredly would be the lone option in Mike Shanahan's offense.
Not so fast. Owners received tremendous production from Henry early in the season, as he raced to three 100-yard games in his first four starts. Injuries and the emergence of Selvin Young (and Andre Hall for a short time) made Henry a veritable spectator following the Week 4 blowout loss to San Diego. He would carry the ball only 65 times in six appearances after that game to finish the year with 691 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Young will likely enter the season as the starter in the Denver backfield for 2008, but with Hall and possibly 2006 hero Mike Bell and another 1-3 backs in the mix, are you going anywhere near this situation? Unless you've got a telepathic connection with Shanahan, this situation may break your heart.
The Bobby Petrino experiment failed miserably, and he mismanaged his backfield horribly (among other issues). Despite the fact that he averaged six yards per carry, second-year running back Jerious Norwood received only 103 carries in 15 games. His lone game with double-digit carries came in the finale against the Seahawks. I certainly have no delusions that Norwood is a running back whose body would withstand 20 touches per game, but the fact that he received fewer than half the workload of veteran Warrick Dunn, who averaged 3.2 yards per carry, is asinine. If you come into the season knowing that your top playmaker was being incarcerated, shouldn't you try to maximize the big-play options still at your disposal?
In that same vein, John Fox hits the list for his misappropriation of touches in Carolina. Again, DeAngelo Williams is a back who might not be suited for a full-time workload. Although at 5-foot-9 and 217 pounds as listed, he could make an impression of his own on defenders. Williams averaged 5.81 yards per carry in the seven games in which he tallied double-digit carries. He also produced a run of at least 23 yards in four of his final five games this year. Once Jake Delhomme went down, it became abundantly clear the offense would need to shift away from its heavy reliance on Steve Smith. As such, we expected Williams to assume a much larger role in the attack. Unfortunately, that didn't occur until it was too late.
Frank Gore salvaged an otherwise forgettable campaign with three solid efforts in the fantasy playoffs and six straight games with 111 or more total yards to close the year. However, with the exception of his brilliant Week 12 effort against the Cardinals and a two-touchdown game in Week 2 against the Rams, Gore was non-existent in the fantasy box score. He scored only six touchdowns all year (five rushing and one receiving). Gore averaged 102.5 total yards per game, a solid total to be sure, but clearly not the top-5 effort that was anticipated.
Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer started the season well and finished with a huge effort against the Dolphins. The remaining 13 games were filled with uneven performances, generated in large part by the struggles of the running game and frequent defensive lapses. Palmer threw 11 touchdown passes in Weeks 1, 2 and 16. He threw 15 in the other 13 games, including two in the final four weeks of most fantasy leagues (Weeks 13-16). Palmer threw two or more interceptions in seven different games against seven multi-touchdown games. He'll be undervalued come draft-day 2008 as numerous fantasy owners won't be able to leave the Bengals' struggles of 2007 behind. I suspect that this team's off-season will be filled with news about housekeeping and retooling for 2008 instead of the frequent police blotter appearances.
Rudi Johnson's string of three consecutive 1,300-yard, 12-touchdown seasons came to an end with a disappointing, injury-marred 2007 season. Johnson earned a single 100-yard performance this year as part of that ridiculous 51-45 loss to Cleveland in Week 2. He scored only three touchdowns (Weeks 12-14) and topped 50 rushing yards only three times in 11 appearances. Clearly, the hamstring injury impacted his play. However, Johnson's inability to shake the injury (and his slow start) left fantasy owners cold.
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| Vince Young led the Titans to the playoffs, but it wasn't because he was able to post big numbers in the offense. (Andy Lyons / Getty Images) |
Tennessee quarterback Vince Young guided the Titans to the playoffs and continues to be efficient (62.3 percent completion rate), but he's solidified his place as a No. 3 fantasy quarterback. Young averaged 169.7 yards per game and threw nine touchdown passes against 17 interceptions. To put his numbers in perspective, Quinn Gray of the Jaguars threw one more touchdown pass in 63 percent fewer attempts. I understand the Titans rely heavily on their defense and the running game of LenDale White and Chris Brown. I understand fully. But, I have to ask the question. If Young is the franchise player, and by Jeff Fisher's own admission, ready to return to Sunday's finale against the Colts, why was Kerry Collins left under center late in a game that would decide their playoff fate?
The Chicago Bears, who practically invented the power running game, failed miserably on the ground in 2007. The team averaged a paltry 3.1 yards per carry and 83.1 yards per game, a full 36.8 yards per game fewer than in 2006. Surely, nobody expected Cedric Benson to generate the numbers that he and former teammate Thomas Jones compiled in 2006. However, his 3.4-yard rushing average was abysmal, and he was lost for the year with a broken leg right when he seemed to be overcoming his early-season woes. Benson expects to be ready for a full workload in 2008.
It was also a difficult year for Seattle running back Shaun Alexander. There's no question that his foot and wrist injuries impacted his play. However, the fact that Alexander continued to play through the injuries left fantasy owners in a bind. Alexander raced to two 100-yard games in his first three games (four straight efforts of 70 or more yards to open the year), but didn't reach 70 rushing yards in a game again until Week 16. He averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and rushed for his lowest yardage and touchdown totals since his rookie year (716 and four, respectively).
Drew Brees finished the season with 652 pass attempts, yet deep ball threat Devery Henderson remained a seldom-used target. The departure of Joe Horn for Atlanta and rookie Robert Meachem's weekly deactivation did nothing to help Henderson raise his game. Henderson finished the year with 20 receptions for 409 yards (obviously a nice result when they connected) and three touchdowns. He actually caught 12 fewer passes than he did in 2006.
San Diego fans and fantasy owners expected a breakthrough season from third-year wide receiver Vincent Jackson. He started strong on the stat sheet, but his inconsistency and frequent drops prompted the Chargers to acquire Chris Chambers from the Dolphins. He caught 19 passes in the first five weeks of the season for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson caught only 22 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns in the final 11 games of the year.
We don't even need to break down the numbers on these disappointments. Owners who reached for the Chicago and Baltimore defenses early on draft day saw multiple members of each unit fall to injury. As such, both secondaries had huge holes and were exploited in the deep passing game. The Bears struggled terribly against the run, while the Ravens were at least able to hang their hat on the broad shoulders of Haloti Ngata in the middle. Brian Urlacher summed up the Chicago effort best with his short "we didn't finish" assessment. The front office in Baltimore said everything when they fired Brian Billick. As least owners of the Chicago defense could rely on opposing coaches inexplicably kicking the ball to Devin Hester.
Detroit signal caller Jon Kitna led all quarterbacks with 51 sacks taken during the 2007 season. It was the second straight year that Kitna led the league (63 in 2006). He ranked sixth in the NFL with 4,068 passing yards, but committed 24 turnovers while throwing 18 touchdown passes.
I'll end with a couple of league notes that might raise an eyebrow or two.
A total of 81 different quarterbacks threw a pass during the 2007 season. Matt Gutierrez went 1-for-1 for 15 yards. On the opposite extreme, Drew Brees threw 652 passes in 16 games (40.75 attempts per game).
Sacks were down across the league nearly five percent (1,163 in 2007 versus 1,102 this year). That's good news for offenses, right? The dip in sacks was nearly offset by a 3.37 percent increase in interceptions thrown by 68 of those quarterbacks referenced above.
There were five fewer 1,000-yard rushers in 2007 than there were in 2006. I've already noted the absence of a Denver running back on the list, but the continued reliance on multi-back systems and the huge number of injuries made the 2007 fantasy season a veritable war of attrition.
I'll continue to burrow through the numbers in my never-ending quest to make you the king or queen of your company water cooler. Hey, with the writer's strike still ongoing, you can't talk about reality television forever, right?
Mike Harmon is a fantasy contributor for FOXSports.com. He has authored two books, The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Sports and The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Football. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question a question or comment? Send them, and the best ones may appear in his show or column.
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