Third base rankings: Braun climbs to fourth
The numbers breakdown among third basemen was intriguing in 2007 with 14 different players hitting 20 or more home runs. Seven played topped 100 RBI, but only 11 plated 80 or more. Nine players batted .290 or better, and 10 players (mostly part-timers) stole double-digit bases.
It's a position that's undergone major changes. A number of our past superstars are sliding down the list (Troy Glaus and Eric Chavez are two examples, and you'll notice Scott Rolen doesn't appear here at all).
Let's start in Chicago, where a young player who shone brightly in 2007 will be battling for a job this spring.
20. Josh Fields, Chicago White Sox
Fields assumes the final spot in the positional rankings as a result of his strong power totals in an abbreviated 2007 season. He slammed 23 home runs with 67 RBI while batting .244 in 100 games and playing in place of an injured Joe Crede. However, he comes to camp with a large question hanging over him with regard to playing time. Crede was re-signed this off-season and will return to his role at third base, assuming he's recovered from the back surgery that ended his 2007 campaign. Crede's long been a defensive stalwart and was coming off of his first 30-home run season before his back flared up. The White Sox will seek to get his bat in the lineup, but his opportunities will be limited with a healthy Crede and the addition of Carlos Quentin to play left field. We'll watch this situation closely when the White Sox report to Arizona.
19. Ty Wigginton, Houston Astros
Wigginton's certainly been an interesting player to watch since he entered the big leagues. He starred with the Mets before heading to Pittsburgh. He was inconsistent for the Pirates, then joined the Rays where he achieved stardom once again. He was then dealt to the Astros, where he hit well in the second half and earned the starting gig for 2008 (although he'll undoubtedly appear elsewhere in the lineup during the year). Throughout his travels (with the exception of his Pittsburgh stop), he's been a solid hitter. In the past two seasons, he's hit 46 home runs with 146 RBI between Tampa Bay and Houston, while batting .276. Remember, he had 24 home runs with 79 RBI as a part-time player for the Rays in 2005. The Astros have a solid lineup on paper, and he'll certainly benefit from a full year at Minute Maid Park. His versatility makes him a strong late-round addition.
18. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles
The magical 2004 season during which Mora batted .340 with 27 home runs and 104 RBI seems like a lifetime ago. The Orioles have struggled in the years since (and during that time, too), and Mora's numbers have dropped as well. In fact, his power numbers have dropped in every season thereafter (He matched his home run total in 2005, but his RBI production fell), and he's batted a solid but unspectacular .274 in back-to-back years. The Orioles face a number of questions as 2008 looms. There are still rumors of trades involving Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard, and the lineup is far from set. With that said, Mora can be counted on for solid production at third base. He'd driven in 83 or more runs in three consecutive years before missing 36 games last season. Even if the Orioles struggle as a whole, I anticipate the veteran third baseman will equal his 2006 marks at worst (.274 with 16 home runs and 83 RBI).
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| Troy Glaus will be a welcomed addition to the middle of the St. Louis lineup, provided he can stay on the field, of course. (Ronald Martinex / Getty Images) |
17. Troy Glaus, St. Louis Cardinals
Glaus is on the move again following two seasons in the potent Toronto lineup. He'll serve an important role as the protection for Albert Pujols. Unfortunately, the veteran third baseman saw his all too brief two-year run of health end with a foot injury that forced him to the disabled list for good in September. He appeared in only 115 games and generated 20 home runs with 62 RBI. Obviously, the key component to his production is his health. He's hit 29 or more home runs in six of his nine major league seasons when he's avoided the injury bug. He represents a huge risk for fantasy owners, although the idea of Pujols and his huge on-base percentage batting ahead of him does get you salivating in anticipation of a high RBI total. Don't overpay for his power production, as his low batting average and considerable injury risk will pull you down. Rather, reap the benefits of this power source in the later rounds or watch him on the waiver wire.
16. Eric Chavez, Oakland A's
Chavez holds the designation of "Last Man Standing" in Oakland, as all of the members of those potent lineups from the first half of the decade have departed. He's been a perennial power threat at the hot corner, slamming 22 or more home runs in seven of the past eight seasons. However, he's battled injuries in three of the past four seasons, and his batting average has dropped in each of the past four years. In fact, his .240 batting average in 2007 and his 90 games played marked new career lows. There's no doubt the wear and tear of diving for ball after ball to make himself a perennial Gold Glove threat has taken a toll on his body. As such, fantasy owners cannot expect a return to the offensive heights of 2000-2002. Owners who decide to wait on a third baseman will find 20-25 home runs, 80 RBI and a .265-.275 hitter in the later rounds.
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
Encarnacion started the season slowly, generating a weak .221 batting average in April before being demoted. He took full advantage of his second shot at the job, batting .286 with 11 RBI in May and proceeded to hit .305 or better in three of the final four months of the season. In fact, he shone his brightest down the stretch when he batted .337 with nine home runs and 35 RBI in the final two months of the year. He's settled into a strong offense in a hitter-friendly park as 2008 unfolds. It's his home and road splits that has me most excited for his prospects. He hit only .270 at home against .309 on the road. I suspect those numbers converge in 2008, and owners find themselves with a more complete third base option.
14. Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers
After struggling through the 2006 campaign, a year during which Blalock established new career-low marks in home runs (16), RBI (89) and runs (76), he played in only 58 games in 2007. For what it is worth, he performed well during his time on the field with a strong .293 batting average and 10 home runs and 33 RBI. However, concerns about his past injuries and changes in the Rangers lineup will force him down draft boards. I'm optimistic he'll rebound to pre-injury form this year. The Rangers will have Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and off-season acquisition Josh Hamilton setting the table. As a former batting champion, Young will provide Blalock with many RBI opportunities. Owners should also look to his performance in September of last year, when he batted .313 with five home runs and 17 RBI. He'll provide solid value later in drafts.
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres
Like Alex Gordon, Kouzmanoff struggled terribly out of the gate and found himself looking at reduced playing time or a return to the minors. Instead, he rallied to bat .303 in May and began a strong rookie campaign that benefitted many patient and opportunistic fantasy owners. He improved markedly down the stretch and finished brilliantly by batting .380 with 17 RBI in September. Naturally, his overall power numbers will be held down by playing in the spacious ballparks of the NL West (Colorado excepted, of course). He hit only five of his 18 home runs at PETCO Park. However, he demonstrated great discipline at the plate with his .317 second-half batting average, and he cut down on his strikeouts as the season progressed. Those numbers predict a strong sophomore campaign.
12. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
The hype generated by the release of a 2006 Topps rookie card and its subsequent huge price tags and hoarding by trading card enthusiast Keith Olbermann added more scrutiny to the arrival of Gordon to Kansas City in 2007. Of course, the tag of "the best Kansas City prospect since George Brett" probably didn't help matters, either. He struggled mightily during his first two months with the Royals, batting a composite .185 with three home runs and eight RBI. The forever youthful Royals stuck with their future star instead of returning him to the minor leagues, and he rebounded with a strong .327 batting average and 14 RBI in June. He finished the season with 15 home runs, 60 RBI and 14 stolen bases. The most glaring problem experienced by him at the plate in 2007 was his astronomical strikeout-to-walk ratio (137-41). I expect improvement in his second full season as the media attention moves on to "the next big thing." He'll offer solid production in each of the five classic categories. Owners will receive a bonus 15-20 stolen bases, as the Kansas City lineup works hard to generate runs by any means necessary.
11. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Zimmerman regressed in some areas during his sophomore season with the National. He saw his batting average dip by 21 points. At the same time, he slammed four more home runs and scored 15 more runs in a more consistent Washington offense. Despite the regression in batting average, I am intrigued by his second-half splits. He batted .282 with 10 home runs and 46 RBI after the All-Star break. If he's truly to take a step forward among the elite at the third base position, he'll need help at the top of the order from Felipe Lopez, who turned in a weak .308 on-base percentage in 2007. He'll need to improve that mark to allow Zimmerman more advantageous hitting situations.
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| Mike Lowell had a career year last year, but can he maintain those lofty numbers? (Jamie Squire / Getty Images) |
10. Mike Lowell, Boston Red Sox
Owners who banked on Lowell to repeat his stellar 2006 production with the Red Sox were given a huge surprise when he established new career marks in batting average (.324) and RBI (120). However, it's clear his miserable 2005 season in Florida was an anomaly. Since joining the Red Sox, he's averaged 20.5 home runs with 100 RBI and a strong .305 batting average. He's been a longtime star at the position, producing at least 18 home runs and 80 RBI in seven of his past eight seasons and averaged 91 RBI during this period. I don't suspect he approaches the monstrous 120 RBI of 2007, but 90-100 RBI in the stellar Boston lineup will make him a phenomenal mid-round selection.
9. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
Amid a series of powerhouses at this position, Figgins stands out as the resident speed merchant. He remains the subject of trade rumors as we steam toward the opening of spring training with the White Sox as the potential suitor. We'll examine the fallout of such a deal should it come to fruition. In the interim, let's review his place in the revamped Angels lineup. He offers fantasy value in three categories. He's averaged 47.25 stolen bases during the past four seasons and consistently ranks among the top-five thieves in the game. He effectively ignites the Angels offense, averaging 92.25 runs scored during this stretch and established a new career mark with a .330 batting average in 2007. He's batted .290 or better in three of his past four years and offers a decent RBI total 55-65 each year. In fact, he achieved his robust 2007 totals (.330, 81 runs scored, 58 RBI and 41 stolen bases) despite appearing in only 115 games.8. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre received absolutely no support from teammate Richie Sexson, who suffered through a brutal 2007 season. But in spite of Sexson's struggles, Beltre still improved his overall numbers to their best totals since joining the Mariners in 2005. He narrowly missed notching the second 100-RBI season of his career with 99 and slammed 26 home runs with a career-high 41 doubles. He also batted .276, his best mark since the ridiculous .334 mark in his final season with the Dodgers. Finally, he stole 14 bases, his highest total since his first full season with Los Angeles in 1999 (18). The Mariners expect more of the same from him in 2008. He's played in at least 149 games in six consecutive years with a minimum of 19 home runs and 75 RBI. This level of consistency and the lack of the substantial injury concerns that plague so many players at this position keeps him among the position's top options. Ichiro continues to set the table and present Beltre with ample RBI opportunities. I expect him to receive more protection from Sexson in the lineup and reach the hallowed 100-RBI mark.
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Overall: Catcher: First base: Second base: Shortstop: Third base: Outfield: Starting pitcher: Middle reliever: Closers: | ||
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7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Jones suffered through another injury-plagued season in 2007, but he produced at an All-Star level when available. He posted his 13th consecutive season with at least 20 home runs and 72 RBI (29 and 102, respectively). In fact, his 102 RBI marked his highest total since the 2003 season, and his .337 batting average and 42 doubles established new career highs. Fantasy owners need to approach the 35 year old (36 in April) with caution, as he's played in 137 or fewer games in four consecutive seasons. However, he's averaged 25 home runs, 86 RBI and a strong .321 batting average when in the lineup during the past three years. You can find another option on the waiver wire for his anticipated stint on the disabled list. Bank on superior production when he's available, though.
6. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
To say Atkins started the 2007 slowly would be a gross understatement. Through the end of May, he batted .223 with three home runs and 20 RBI. He proceeded to bat .335 with 22 home runs and 91 RBI during the balance of the season. Of course, I would be remiss if I failed to acknowledge his walk-to-strikeout ratio reverted to his 2005 form, as he struck out 20 more times than he did in 2006. Additionally, his production away from Coors Field dropped precipitously. He batted .313 in road games during the 2006 season, but dropped to .254 in 2007. Happy fantasy owners watched him rip at a robust .349 clip at Coors Field to yield a strong .301 full season mark. His ability to dominate at Coors and his back-to-back 100-RBI seasons keeps him among the top options at the position. Fantasy owners (and the Rockies) would like to see him achieve more consistently on the road.
5. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez was limited by injury for the second time in his past three seasons with the Cubs. He missed a total of 30 games, but still managed to produce superior numbers when in the lineup. He batted .310, his second-best full-season batting average, and drove in 100 runs for the third time in his past four years with the Cubs (101). Although he's never been one to draw walks, he does a tremendous job in limiting his strikeouts, which is very uncommon for sluggers. More balls in play yield more hits, and he's been extremely effective doing so since joining the Cubs, with an average of 68.3 extra-base hits in each full season. Chicago added talent for the top of the order in Kosuke Fukudome, who will team with Alfonso Soriano (who battled leg issues in 2007) to set the table. Another season with 30 home runs and 100 RBI is in the offing for Ramirez in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.
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| Ryan Braun, who was last year's NL Rookie of the Year, will start this season as a consensus top-five fantasy pick at third base. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images) |
4. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
If not for defensive lapses in spring training, opposing pitchers would have been subjected to this sweet-swinging youngster at the outset of the 2007 campaign. Instead, pitchers were spared until late May when Braun entered the lineup and never looked back. He batted .382 in his first full month with Milwaukee with 20 extra-base hits and 21 RBI. He suffered no letdown and continued to obliterate the opposition en route to picking up his NL Rookie of the Year hardware. He ripped 65 extra-base hits with 97 RBI despite the fact he appeared in only 113 games. He even stole 15 bases for good measure. The Brewers return a young and talented lineup for 2007, and the duo of Braun and Prince Fielder may just be one of the most potent combinations in the game. Most impressively, Braun's home and road splits were virtually identical, something very uncommon for a player at his age (He turned 24 in November). He'll retain his eligibility at third base while likely working the 2008 season in left field. The move to the outfield will allow him to concentrate on his game at the plate and prevent a sophomore slide.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Cabrera produced stellar power numbers while playing in spacious Dolphins Stadium. A move to the more hitter-friendly Comerica Park (as well as the other parks of the AL Central) portends to the most productive season of the 24-year-old superstar's career. That's right. he won't turn 25 until the middle of April. As he's still several years away from his power prime, it's frightening to think he's averaged 73.8 extra-base hits in his first four major league seasons. In fact, he's averaged 115 RBI per full season and owns a career .313 batting average. He joins a Detroit lineup that ranked third in runs scored (887) during the 2007 season. Is a 40-home run and 135-RBI season out of the question in this lineup?
2. David Wright, New York Mets
Wright's firmly established himself as the No. 2 player in this New York-dominated top of the positional rankings. He established new career-high marks in batting average (.325), runs scored (113), home runs (30) and stolen bases (34). Following the All-Star break in 2007, he elevated his game to a new level. He continued to produce exceptional power numbers, but batted .364 in 74 second-half games including a robust .394 in August (six home runs and 21 RBI). He's averaged 71.3 extra-base hits in his first three full major league seasons and now enters his prime in a young and talented lineup. He may give back some of his sizable stolen base contribution from 2007 (He stole 14 more bases than he did in 2006), but that'll be offset by his first 40-home run campaign.
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
There will always be fans and pundits who bemoan Rodriguez's efforts in October, but his gargantuan regular season numbers cannot be denied. He followed his "down" 2006 season as expected, achieving new heights in the power categories en route to another MVP award (54 home runs and 156 RBI). It marked his 10th consecutive season with at least 35 home runs and 106 RBI. He remains a prime five-tool option, as he's stolen 15 or more bases in five consecutive years (24 in 2007) and owns a lifetime .306 batting average. Fantasy owners can anticipate another monster performance in the always-stacked Yankees offense. There's no hesitation at the No. 1 pick whatsoever.
Next: Outfield Rankings 40-21
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