Outfield rankings: Nos. 40-21
All of those practices can help to get you to fantasy glory. After all, while you want to stock your team with the best baseline possible, you need the up-ticks in performance to create separation. Then you need those blue chip prospects to perform (No, we'll save the analysis on the current stock market woes for another time).
I continue my positional review with the first half of my outfield rankings. Included are a number of new faces who'll look to make their marks and veterans in new locales. I'll be back tomorrow with the top 20, which will no doubt spark more than a few debates.
40. Chris Duncan, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals expected Duncan to improve on his tremendous introduction to the game in 2006 when he hit 22 home runs with 43 RBI and had a strong .293 batting average in 280 at-bats. Instead, he regressed at the plate as his strikeout rate soared to one in every 3.04 at-bats. He maintained his power production by hitting 21 home runs with 70 RBI, but a sharp decline in batting average in the second half is cause for concern. He batted .288 in the first half of the year before seeing his average drop precipitously to .209 in 139 second-half at-bats. Part of the drop-off can be attributed to the sports hernia injury that ultimately ended his season, but the difference at the plate was noticeable. He's expected to be fully healthy for camp, so owners can expect strong power numbers for him in front of Albert Pujols. He'll need to improve his contact rate to sustain a higher average and make himself a more well-rounded fantasy option.
39. Aaron Roward, San Francisco Giants
After playing in hitter-friendly parks for his entire career, Rowand takes up residence in the spacious outfield in San Francisco. He does so following a career year for the Phillies in which he established new career marks in games played (161), home runs (27) and RBI (89). He also batted .309, the second-highest average of his career. The only knock on his season was that his three-year streak of double-digit steals came to an end (six). I'm not bullish on Rowand producing an encore in San Francisco. First, the ball doesn't travel quite as well at AT&T Park as it did in Chicago or Philadelphia. Second, there are no physical presences in the molds of Ryan Howard or Chase Utley to provide him protection in the lineup. Third, his aggressiveness in the field tends to put tremendous wear on his body down the stretch. Finally, his 27-home run barrage of 2007 accompanied by the .309 batting average came on the heels of 12 and 13-home run seasons, during which he batted .262 and .270. I simply don't see a repeat of his 2007 surge in the offing. He may reclaim some of his lost stolen bases, just don't buy high based on a single year.
38. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies
Perhaps he hasn't lived up to the hype generated upon his arrival to Philadelphia in 2000, but Burrell's become a solid power source and reliable contributor in the Phillies lineup. He owns a current streak of seven 20-home run seasons (He hit 18 in his 111-game introduction in 2000) while averaging 94.6 RBI during this period. He continues to strike out too much (one per 3.52 at-bats), but he draws enough walks to keep his on-base percentage high and the line moving on offense (one per 6.86 plate appearances). Fantasy owners are under no delusions when selecting him in the middle rounds. He provides power and scores runs while putting a bit of a drag on team batting average as a career .258 hitter.
37. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners
Ibanez has quietly become a consistent hitter in the Seattle lineup and a solid third outfielder for fantasy owners. He's produced back-to-back 100-RBI campaigns while hitting .280 or better in six consecutive seasons as a full-time player. During this period, he's averaged 59 extra-base hits and 95 RBI for the Royals and Mariners. He's been productive despite lapses by Richie Sexson that yielded little protection. However, batting behind Ichiro always leaves him with ample RBI opportunities. Expect more of the same in 2008.
36. Josh Willingham, Florida Marlins
Willingham surrendered his catcher eligibility long ago, or else he'd be ranked higher on this list. However, he's become a solid power broker in the spacious outfield of Dolphins Stadium with back-to-back solid campaigns. He notched 20 home runs for the second straight season and upped his doubles total, a sign of even more power to come. He's averaged 56.5 extra-base hits in his two full seasons with fairly even home and road splits. He also experienced an up-tick in the stolen base column, offering fantasy owners eight thefts in 2007. I suspect his numbers for 2008 resemble his past marks very closely. There's nothing to suggest he'll take a dramatic step forward in batting average (He strikes out too often and has been subject to extended slumps). His power numbers will be stunted by playing in such a sizable outfield. He'll hit 25-30 home runs and may swipe 8-10 bases, but his .260 batting average won't help. Owners can hope for a surge in RBI opportunities behind Hanley Ramirez.
35. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees
Damon's experienced a significant decline in batting average since joining the Yankees and has been held out of the lineup more frequently (his 141 games played in 2007 marked a career low for a full season). Additionally, his power production has fluctuated in the past several years. He owns two 20-home run seasons in his career, but he's also homered 14 times or fewer in five of his past seven seasons. However, he still makes two sizable contributions to fantasy lineups. He remains a part of the potent Yankees offense. Therefore, barring a catastrophic injury or a decision by Joe Girardi to begin a youth movement in the outfield, he'll always post a strong statistical baseline. He also remains a threat on the basepaths, having stolen 18 or more bases in 10 consecutive seasons (52 in two years with the Yankees).
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| Ken Griffey, Jr. had an All-Star season in 2007. Will his age of 38 hurt his chances of staying healthy again, though? (Jeff Gross / Getty Images) |
34. Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Griffey provided Cincinnati fans and fantasy owners with a "turn back the clock" campaign in 2007. He appeared in 144 games, his highest number of games played since joining the Reds in 2000 (145 that year) and also slammed 30 home runs for the third time in eight seasons with the team. He remains a high injury risk, but his power production during the past three campaigns has been intriguing. He's slammed 92 home runs with 258 RBI in his past 1,447 at-bats, a clip of one home run per 15.7 at-bats. While it doesn't match his ridiculous five-year output in his prime (one home run per 11.6 at-bats), it's mighty impressive given the fact he turned 38 following the 2007 season. He'll continue to hit home runs at a brisk clip when in the lineup, but the reality is he's played 111 or fewer games in five of the past seven years. As a result, he carries tremendous risk. But, you can say you owned him when he trotted home for the 600th time in his career (He needs seven to reach the hallowed mark).
33. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bay experienced a dramatic drop-off in his power production during the 2007 season, as opponents worked the inner part of the plate and challenged him every at-bat. His batting average dropped by a full 39 points and he produced 19 fewer extra-base hits than he did in 2006 (34 fewer than in his breakout 2005 season). There isn't much protection in the lineup, which therefore causes Bay to press. He's averaged 142 strikeouts in his four full major league campaigns, an alarming rate of one per 3.7 at-bats. I suspect he rebounds somewhat in the batting average department more in line with his .281 career mark, but his days as a five-tool performer (he stole 21 bases in 2005) came and went. Owners can anticipate 25-30 home runs with 80-90 RBI.
32. Delmon Young, Minnesota Twins
Young quietly turned in a strong rookie campaign for the Rays before being dealt to the Twins this off-season. He generated 51 extra-base hits (13 home runs) with 93 RBI, 10 stolen bases and a strong .288 batting average. In fact, the lone hole in his offensive game as a rookie was his absurd walk-to-strikeout rate (4.88 strikeouts per walk). I expect the 22 year old (that's not a typo) to become a mainstay in fantasy lineups in his current residence, as he'll certainly enjoy hitting in the friendly parks of the AL Central. He adapted to the game impressively as a rookie, generating a .300 batting average in the second half of the season. I'm salivating about his prospects as he sees more pitches and begins to improve his contact rate. Perhaps a move to the small-ball approach in Minnesota is just what he needs. He'll shorten his swing and put the ball in play more often, thereby boosting his batting average. His .288 batting average as a rookie projects to a tremendous future as he matures in the Twins lineup.
31. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox
One had to suspect that Dye would come down off of his statistical mountain of 2006, a year in which he obliterated opposing pitching to the tune of 44 home runs and 120 RBI with a .315 batting average (the second-highest mark of his 12-year career). Nobody could have anticipated the free-fall that occurred in the first half of 2007. Dye batted a woeful .214 with 12 home runs and 39 RBI ahead of the break. He bounced back with a strong second half during which he batted .298 with 16 home runs and 39 RBI. While I certainly don't anticipate a return to 2006 form for him this year, I would be remiss if I failed to note his consistency during the better part of the past decade. In his past eight full seasons, he's averaged 29.5 home runs and 99 RBI. His full-season lows during this period are 23 home runs (2004) and 78 RBI (2007). Playing in a great hitter's park with Paul Konerko and Jim Thome hitting around him, he'll hit those averages again in 2008.
30. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pierre narrowly missed matching his career mark with 64 thefts in 2007. He's now stolen 45 or more bases in seven consecutive seasons. In an age where steals have been down overall, Pierre's averaged 72.4 stolen base attempts during this period. Could that change under Joe Torre? I don't believe so. While you may see fewer attempts from Russell Martin and some others in the lineup, Pierre's prime objective is to wreak havoc on the basepaths. He's averaged 96.7 runs scored in his seven full major league seasons on the strength of 196.8 hits per year (.301 career batting average). If only he would draw a walk now and then (he averages 39.7 per year despite accruing nearly 700 plate appearances per season)! He'll keep the line moving ahead of an exciting lineup that boasts budding stars James Loney and Matt Kemp alongside veterans Andruw Jones and Jeff Kent.
29. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kemp acclimated well to major league pitching and provided Dodgers fans (and fantasy owners who claimed him for the September ride) a glimpse of things to come. He provided superior production across the board in his 98-game introduction to the league, hitting 10 home runs with 42 RBI and 10 stolen bases. Of course, his main contribution came in the form of his .342 batting average. He actually batted .350 during the final two months of the season (.382 in September). As we approach spring training, I'm excited to watch Kemp fulfill these great expectations as an everyday player. Most interestingly, nine of his 10 home runs came at Dodger Stadium. With more seasoning and a potent lineup around him, he becomes a five-tool stud as soon as 2008.
28. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Pence experienced a phenomenal rookie campaign in an otherwise dismal season for the Astros. He established himself as a five-tool performer, although he was slowed by injury down the stretch. Regardless, the 24-year-old rookie demonstrated great power at the plate with his 56 extra-base hits and showed good speed and awareness on the basepaths (11 stolen bases and nine triples). Naturally, there are some concerns about a sophomore letdown, and the issues surrounding Miguel Tejada put a cloud over the squad. I would say the lone area for improvement for this sweet-swinging youngster at the plate is his high-strikeout rate (95 in 456 at-bats).
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Overall: Catcher: First base: Second base: Shortstop: Third base: Outfield: Starting pitcher: Middle reliever: Closers: | ||
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27. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies
We anticipated more activity on the basepaths by Victorino in 2007 as he assumed a full-time role in the Philadelphia lineup. He certainly didn't disappoint. He swiped only four bases in 2006, but he received the green light frequently in 2007 and raced to 37 thefts in 41 attempts. Additionally, he doubled his home run total to 12 and produced 15 more extra-base hits overall. The Philadelphia lineup remains loaded for 2008, with Victorino batting between reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins and the potent trio of Utley, Howard and Burrell. He'll still have his opportunities to run, and I suspect you'll see another slight bump to his power totals and a noticeable increase in his RBI production (46 in back-to-back years). While owners gravitate to his speed, he's quietly becoming a five-tool performer.
26. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
It's hard to believe Matsui's already entering his sixth season with the Yankees. I remember the press conference to announce the arrival of "Godzilla" to American baseball so vividly. In his five years in the "Big Apple," he's established himself as a consistent contributor to fantasy lineups and an important cog in the potent Yankees attack. In 2007, he achieved his fourth 100-RBI season and topped 20 home runs for the third time. Some would argue the "Godzilla" moniker may have been too aggressive, but it was good marketing and his average of 63.5 extra-base hits in his four full seasons isn't terrible. Perhaps the only blemish on his fantasy resume for 2008 is the fact that Matsui missed two-thirds of the 2006 season (he played in only 51 games) and then missed 18 more games in 2007. The injury risk isn't enough to deter fantasy owners seeking four-category production. The Yankees are locked and loaded for another fantastic run under Joe Girardi.
25. Andruw Jones, Los Angeles Dodgers
Normally we see players produce monstrous campaigns ahead of free agency. Jones generated solid power numbers, but watched his batting dip to a career-low .222 in his final season in Atlanta. His 26 home runs marked his 10 consecutive season with at least that many blasts, and he topped 90 RBI for the ninth time in his past 10 years (five 100-RBI seasons). I'm somewhat fearful about the move to Dodger Stadium with regard to his power numbers, but it's hard to ignore his consistency. He's averaged 36.3 home runs and 110 RBI during the past decade and has hit fewer than 34 home runs only twice. Jones will be batting in a strong lineup, where RBI opportunities will be plentiful. Owners can bank on his high power production and a batting average more in line with his .263 career mark.
24. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
As expected, Francoeur came into his own in his second full season with the Braves. He gave up some of his power numbers, translating some of his home runs into doubles, to become a more well-rounded performer. He achieved his second straight 100-RBI season and raised his batting average by 33 points. His strikeout total remains too high, but I'd say he's progressing just fine at the age of 24. Look for him to continue his improvement batting alongside Mark Teixeira in the Atlanta lineup this year. He'll be a fine four-category producer, and I believe 2008 is the year he puts it all together.
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| Vernon Wells had a down year in '07, but he should rebound in Toronto's talented lineup. (Dave Sandford / Getty Images) |
23. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays
Wells saw his disappointing 2007 campaign come to an end with surgery on his left shoulder. He established new career-low marks in home runs (16) and batting average (.245), and his 80 RBI marked his second-lowest total of his six-year major league career. I anticipate a bounce-back campaign for Wells more in line with his 2006 highs (.303, 32 home runs and 106 RBI with 17 stolen bases). The outfield returns healthy after an injury-plagued campaign, and off-season acquisition Scott Rolen will be reinvigorated by his departure from St. Louis. The team also added David Eckstein to get the line moving alongside Aaron Hill. And lest we forget, Toronto returns Lyle Overbay to the heart of the order. Barring another injury, Wells will prove to be a draft-day bargain.
22. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee fans and fantasy owners caught a glimpse of Hart's all-around ability during his 87-game trial with the big club during the 2007 season. I don't believe anybody could have expected him to acclimate to the grand stage so quickly. He served as a catalyst to many fantasy championships in 2007, as he produced five-tool dominance in the young and potent Milwaukee lineup. What makes his final totals (24 home runs, 81 RBI, 23 stolen bases and 86 runs scored) so impressive is that, like teammate Ryan Braun, he didn't really begin his ascent until June 1. Hart batted .292 with 23 home runs, 71 RBI and 17 stolen bases in the final four months of the year. I can't wait to see what he does for an encore as part of this talented nucleus in Milwaukee.
21. Brad Hawpe, Colorado Rockies
Hawpe started slowly, hitting .256 with one home run and 10 RBI in April. He then kicked into gear and produced a phenomenal second full season. He established new career marks in home runs (29), RBI (116) and runs scored (80). He effectively used the hitter-friendly home park, batting .308 with 19 home runs and 67 RBI at Coors Field. However, unlike many of his teammates, he also fared pretty well on the road (.273, 10 home runs and 49 RBI). He's another big swinger who could stand to cut down on the strikeouts (137), but he also draws a fair share of walks (81). There's absolutely no reason to believe he won't meet or exceed last year's marks alongside Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins. He slipped by unnoticed in drafts last year. It won't happen again.
Next: Outfielders 20-1
Mike Harmon is a fantasy contributor for FOXSports.com. He has authored two books, The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Sports and The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Football. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question a question or comment? Send them, and the best ones may appear in his show or column.
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