by Mike Harmon

Updated: February 10, 2008, 9:13 PM EST 1 comment

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A small change in velocity or a missed spot turns a strikeout into a prodigious home run blast. Final statistics fluctuate more for pitchers than any other position. After all, it's a game of inches.

Additionally, injury concerns are more prevalent at the position, and the ability of a player to return to their former dominance is much less likely. With that said, the progress made by Dr. James Andrews and doctors of his ilk is positively astounding.

A number of highly decorated pitchers return to the hill in 2008, and some of our young fantasy heroes will look to return from injuries that slowed their progress. Let's start the pitcher rankings with a look at a pitcher who still seeks to put it all together.

40. Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

I remember when Bonderman and former teammate Mike Maroth were fed to the proverbial lions in 2003 and bashed around every fifth day (Bonderman finished with a brutal 6-19 record). He has posted four consecutive seasons with double-digit wins, but the former first-round pick has yet to reach his full potential. Bonderman owns a career 4.78 ERA with a composite 1.37 WHIP, numbers primarily generated by allowing a huge number of hits (9.43 per nine innings pitched) because he effectively limits walks.

Fantasy owners can expect more of the same from Bonderman in 2008. He'll earn double-digit wins again behind a loaded offense and may eclipse his previous career-high of 14 victories. Bonderman will take the ball every fifth day (He's averaged 184.7 innings pitched in his five major league seasons) and opposing hitters will catch up to his fastball. He's yet to finish the year with a WHIP better than 1.30 or an ERA lower than 4.08.

39. Pedro Martinez, New York Mets

Martinez was far more hittable in his September return than we'd seen in prior seasons (.284 BAA and 1.43 WHIP). However, the veteran hurler demonstrated a live arm in his five starts by fanning 32 hitters in 28 innings of work against seven walks. Martinez also did a fine job of holding runners on base, allowing only eight earned runs in his five appearances (2.57 ERA).

His strong close to the season raises expectations for a rebound season. There's clearly some concern about Martinez's health given that he's appeared in only 28 games in the past two seasons (160.2 innings pitched). Martinez clearly wasn't himself during the 2006 season, so those bloated numbers can be discounted. He'll obviously receive superior run support from the loaded Mets lineup to boost his win total. It's just a question of health and velocity. Martinez is a high-risk, high-reward option. I'm rolling the dice.

38. Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox

Buehrle rebounded nicely from his struggles of 2006, dropping his ERA by 1.36 runs and his WHIP by 0.19 back to a respectable 1.26. He started 30 games, his seventh consecutive year of at least 30 starts with double-digit wins (14 or more wins in five of them). Buehrle eats innings, racking up an average of 225.4 innings pitched per campaign. He won't fan many hitters (5.2 per nine innings), but he also effectively limits walks.

The main area of concern regarding Buehrle's performance is the fact that he's experienced heavy drop-offs in performance in the second halves of back-to-back seasons. Buehrle posted a composite 3.62 ERA in the first halves of the past two years. His ERA ballooned to 4.98 in the second halves of the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

37. Curt Schilling, Boston Red Sox

Gone are the days of penciling Schilling in for high win and strikeout totals, and he's become increasingly more hittable in the past three years (opponents' BAA has been .275 or higher in three straight years). Schilling has reached double-digit wins just twice in the past five years, although his three 20-win seasons in the past seven years is intriguing given his role in the Boston attack.

Schilling has produced a sizable 4.30 ERA in the past three years. Fantasy owners won't see a huge rebound in the ERA or WHIP categories, but a full season of health could give them a decent strikeout total with double-digit wins. Reports of retirement to build his gaming empire seem premature to me, and I suspect that he's anxious to perform and back up his words concerning the Mitchell Report.

36. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Cain was the poster boy for the term "hard luck" in 2007. He posted a strong 3.53 first-half ERA, but had a miserable record of 3-9 to show for it. Cain's second half was marginally worse (3.79 ERA with an improved 1.17 WHIP). He still went 4-7 after the break. The Giants clearly failed to provide adequate run support for the second-year hurler, who allowed fewer hits per nine innings and reduced his walk rate only to win six fewer games than he did in 2006. San Francisco will continue their scoring struggles in 2008 as they begin the post-Barry era. However, Cain can't experience nearly the same difficulties of 2007, can he? I expect solid production across the four standard categories for starters this year.

35. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

According to reports from Minneapolis, the Twins expect southpaw Liriano to be available at the start of spring training. His recovery from Tommy John surgery is proceeding as expected, and he'll be a welcome addition to the rotation with Johan Santana still potentially on his way out.

The 24-year-old hurler set the fantasy world on fire with four months of brilliance in the 2006 season. Liriano carried a record of 12-2 into the month of August with a scintillating 1.96 ERA and 4.5 strikeouts per walk. He would appear in only two more games before it was determined that season-ending surgery was required. Fantasy owners assume some risk in his return, but he could be a difference-maker if he rounds back into form without a setback.

34. Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies

Fans and fantasy owners never expected to find a pitching ace in the Rockies rotation. They've done so in lefty Jeff Francis. The former first-round pick established new career marks with 17 victories, 215.1 innings pitched and 165 strikeouts. The lone rough spot in his stat line is the high hit rate (9.78 hits allowed per nine innings). As a result, Francis's ERA (4.22) and WHIP (1.38) suffered.

His relatively high ERA and sizable WHIP numbers keep Francis from ascending to the upper tier of fantasy pitchers. However, Francis does average nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings pitched and pitches behind a phenomenal offense.

33. A.J. Burnett, Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has finally shaken off most of the injury issues that plagued his tenure with the Marlins, having started 21 or more games in three consecutive years. However, he's yet to experience the breakthrough year that fans and fantasy owners have long anticipated. Burnett has won double-digit games in three consecutive seasons with ERAs under 4.00.

The Blue Jays represent an interesting sleeper option this year. The lineup is solid, and they possess the hammer to close games out in B.J. Ryan. I'm impressed with Burnett's strong close to the season (5-2 with a strong 3.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the second half). He's also averaged 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in the past three years.

32. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers

Brad Penny may not offer a great WHIP or a ton of K's, but he has been racking up the wins in recent years. (Stephen Dunn / Getty Images)

Penny has become a solid cheaper source of wins for fantasy owners, having posted back-to-back 16-win seasons. He produced one of the most memorable first-half efforts in recent memory (10-1 with a stellar 2.39 ERA) and finished with a career-best 3.03 ERA. Penny's 208 innings pitched marked a new career mark as well. Fantasy owners can't expect huge strikeout numbers, and his WHIP will be impacted by a combination of his sizable hit and walk totals (career 1.32 WHIP). However, the Dodgers have a youthful lineup that should generate ample run support to allow Penny to match his win total of the past two years.

31. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

With the exception of a rough month of June (7.71 ERA), Lincecum shone brightly in his rookie season with the Giants. In fact, he proved his make-up by bouncing back with a record of 4-0 with a miniscule 1.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in July. Lincecum received little help from the offense, as evidenced by his seven wins despite a reasonable 4.00 ERA (3.19 in 19 non-June starts).

Lincecum impressively struck out 9.22 hitters per nine innings of work while limiting opponents to 7.5 hits per nine innings. He'll only get better in his sophomore season. Hopefully, the offense will rise up to meet him somewhat.

30. John Maine, New York Mets

It was a tale of two seasons for the young star. Maine emerged as one of the top surprises of the first half of the 2007 season. He won 10 games in 17 starts with strong ERA (2.71) and WHIP (1.14) totals while limiting opponents to 6.98 hits per nine innings of work. Maine didn't fare nearly as well as tapes were broken down by second-half opponents, and he hit the proverbial rookie wall. He allowed 9.18 hits per nine innings pitched and saw his ERA rise by 2.82 runs.

I anticipate the Maine rebounds from his second-half struggles to offer fantasy owners with strong production in four categories. He did strike out 2.4 hitters per walk allowed as a rookie, a data point that is somewhat lost in his second-half fade. That portends to a bright future while frequently pitching with a lead in 2008.

29. Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs received a huge boost from Hill in his first full season in the rotation. He opened the year with a stellar month of April. Hill went 3-1 with a miniscule 1.77 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He proceeded to win only one game in each of the following three months while receiving little run support (the Cubs scored three or fewer runs in 12 of his 15 starts during that period).

The Chicago offense has been re-tooled for 2008, and I suspect that Hill earns another 4-6 wins as a result. Additionally, Hill fanned 2.9 hitters per walk allowed and limited opponents to a .235 BAA. Look for him to take another leap forward this year.

28. Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers

Expectations have been huge for this former first-round pick since he cracked the Brewers' roster in 2001. Unfortunately, years of pitching behind a weak offense followed by three straight injury-shortened campaigns have kept Sheets from reaching his potential. Sheets topped 215 innings pitched in three consecutive seasons from 2002-04. He did not make more than 24 starts in any of the following three seasons.

Sheets experienced a dramatic dip in his strikeout rate last season. He still averaged a respectable 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings, but it was a stark drop from his robust 2004 rate of 10.02 strikeouts per nine innings. I hold out hope that he'll be able to match his first-half totals from 2007 (10-4 with a solid 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP) and capitalize on the run support that he'll receive. This could be the year that Sheets breaks through the 12-win ceiling (He's never won more than 12 games in a season), and I expect that he rebounds to the sub-1.10 WHIP that we'd witnessed for three years. However, the selection of Sheets carries considerable risk given his recent injury history.

27. James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays were taking no chances with the front of their rotation, as they locked Shields into a seven-year deal earlier this week. Shields showed tremendous improvement in 2007, markedly reducing his walk rate while allowed fewer hits. He allowed 2.74 walks per nine innings pitched in 2006. Shields lowered that mark to 1.51 walks per nine innings in 2007. Likewise, he allowed 1.72 fewer hits per nine innings. The net effect of these improvements reduced his WHIP by 0.33 from his 2006 effort.

I anticipate continued growth from Shields this year, and a win total commensurate with his other marks.

26. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

Following two subpar years (by his standards) to open his tenure in Atlanta, Hudson returned to form in 2007. Hudson won 16 games for the Braves, his highest win total since 2003, and his 224.1 innings pitched also marked his highest total since that sensational year in Oakland. A couple other numbers stand out from Hudson's final stat line. He allowed fewer hits than innings pitched for the first time since, you guessed it, 2003, and he allowed 15 fewer home runs than he did in 2006.

The Atlanta rotation is well-stocked with cagey veterans who will be backed by a potent offense. There are no health concerns with Hudson (27 or more starts in eight consecutive years), something that must be noted when speaking of veteran hurlers. The lone issue with Hudson is that his strikeout rate is average (6.18 per nine innings pitched), but that's of small consequence for a sure-fire double-digit winner who owns a career 3.51 ERA.

25. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy owners fell over themselves in an attempt to claim Gallardo on waivers, as he become a top-tier option for portions of the 2007 season. The 21-year-old hurler (22 in February) earned nine wins in 20 appearances while exhibiting superior control and a wicked fastball. Gallardo struck out 101 hitters in 110.1 innings pitched and finished with a strong 3.67 ERA. But, take a deeper look inside the game log. Gallardo allowed 18 earned runs in a two-game funk against the Rockies and Cardinals. He pitched to a scorching 2.38 ERA in his other 18 appearances.

He'll still experience some hiccups along the way, but the sky is the limit for this young hurler.

24. Brett Myers, Philadelphia Phillies

Myers earned the role of opening day starter for the Phillies before shifting to the closer's role for the balance of the year. Myers excelled in the role, but the addition of Brad Lidge allows him to return to the rotation. He had produced four consecutive double-digit win seasons and came into his own as a starter with sub-4.00 ERAs in 2005 and 2006.

The Phillies clearly offer tremendous offensive support, so a return to double-digit wins is a veritable lock. Myers's ascent to a dominant strikeout artist in 2005 is what is most intriguing to fantasy owners as he returns to the rotation. The ability to reach back and post a strikeout is the ERA column's best friend. Since the start of the 2005 season, Myers has averaged 8.96 strikeouts per nine innings of work.

23. Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees

Fans and fantasy owners have long awaited a drop-off in production from Wang because of his lack of strikeout punch. However, Wang has posted back-to-back 19-win seasons with a composite 3.66 ERA. He eats innings and knows how to pitch out of jams (.268 composite BAA). The Yankees offense is loaded once again, so unless something changes dramatically, fantasy owners can rely on solid three-category production once again.

22. Javier Vazquez, Chicago White Sox

Lost in the misery of the 2007 campaign for the White Sox was the stellar season turned in by veteran Vazquez. He won 15 games, his highest total since 2001. It also marked his eighth consecutive season with double-digit victories. Vazquez reduced his hit rate to 8.18 hits per nine innings pitched and struck out 8.85 hitters per nine innings.

Fantasy owners can anticipate another double-digit win campaign and huge strikeout numbers (he's averaged 196 strikeouts during the past three years). Don't be scared off by the huge home runs totals.

21. Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels

Following years of inconsistent efforts between Toronto and Anaheim, Escobar finally found the mark in back-to-back seasons. He established new career bests in 2007 with 18 wins and a strong 3.40 ERA. In the past two years, Escobar earned 29 wins with a solid 3.50, a full two-thirds of a run below his career mark. He's been able to end more threats with a strikeout. The Angels improved their offense this off-season, and the outfield defense will be phenomenal. As a result, I expect Escobar's ERA and WHIP totals to dip a little further in 2008.

Next: Pitchers 20-1