Starting pitcher rankings: Santana reigns supreme
Of course, as they're also baseball fans, their propensity to root for or against a player or team will shift their final analysis.
I continue my positional rankings with the second half of my starting pitching analysis. Included are those players who have demonstrated durability and consistency, and who can be counted on to perform well for their owners for some of the reasons listed above and then some.
Let's count it down to No. 1.
20. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
He came to the United States with great expectations, and for the most part, Matsuzaka delivered. After all, he contributed 15 wins during the regular season and parlayed huge run support to earn two victories in the Red Sox drive to a championship. He and his famed "gyroball" kept hitters off-balance, as he recorded nearly one strikeout per inning pitched (201 in 204 2/3 innings). He fanned seven or more hitters in 19 of his 32 starts and pitched at least six innings in 24 of them. The examination of his split stats reveal two areas of concern with his performance, one of which affects fantasy owners. First, he struggled against the dreaded Yankees, recording a 1-2 record and a ballooned 6.12 ERA. Second, the adjustment to a five-day rotation made him wilt in the second half. He pitched to a sizable 5.93 ERA in the final two months of the year. I suspect his off-season conditioning allows him to stay strong in the dog days of summer, and you can bank on ample run support.
19. Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays
Kazmir's a player to watch as 2008 unfolds, as he's no doubt motivated somewhat by the monster deal recently signed by teammate James Shields. He comes off a strong 2007 season in which he established a new career mark with 13 wins, nine of which came on the road. He positively crushed his previous career-high mark in strikeouts, fanning 239 hitters in 206 2/3 innings (10.41 per nine). The 24 year old does cause owners to take pause on draft day, as there are two troubling components of his stat line He walked nearly four hitters per nine innings (Again, he gets out of trouble with the timely strikeout), and the more problematic thing is that he owns a career 1.05 ground ball-to-flyball ratio (1.10 in 2007). Those fly balls can come back to haunt him.
18. Chris Young, San Diego Padres
Fantasy owners watched Young take another step forward during his second year in the National League. The move to the expansive outfields of the National League West was pure genius for this flyball-affected hurler. Young surrenders nearly twice as many flyballs as groundballs. He's pitched to a strong 3.15 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in 29 career starts at PETCO Park. That's a stark contrast to his previous home at Ameriquest Field, where he pitched to a 4.70 ERA. One of the stats that leapt off of his profile page is the fact he allowed only 10 home runs last season. He'd allowed 28 home runs in 2006. At 6-foot-10, he's an imposing figure on the mound, and opponents have had trouble adjusting to him. He allowed a composite .192 batting average against in 2007. He'll continue to confound hitters in 2008.
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| Fausto Carmona led many owners to fantasy titles last year and will likely be picked high in drafts. (Elsa / Getty Images) |
17. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians
He owns one of the best names in the game, and in 2007, Carmona emerged as a top hurler in the American League. His ascent to stardom came as a surprise, as he'd struggled to a 5.42 ERA with a sizable 1.59 WHIP in 2006. He was installed as a starter for 2007 and produced a stellar first half (10-4 with a solid 3.85 ERA). However, he really found his stride in the second half and helped many fantasy owners to championships. He reduced his ERA to 2.26 in the second half with a brilliant 1.07 WHIP and .217 opponent batting average against. He generated these devastating numbers without being able to record the big strikeout to get out of innings. He struck out 5.73 hitters per nine innings pitched, but his ability to keep the ball down kept him out trouble. He induced 3.28 groundballs for every flyball and limited right-handed hitters to a composite .216 batting average. His ability to keep the ball down is paramount to his continued success in 2008.
16. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
The 2007 season started well for Hernandez, as he pitched to a strong 1.56 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in three April starts. He struggled terribly in the following two months (5.26 composite ERA in May and June), but rallied to post a 10-3 record from July 1 until the end of the year. He pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA during the final three months of the campaign. During his two full seasons with the Mariners, he's struck out three hitters per walk allowed. However, he's been hittable (9.54 hits per nine innings), and his WHIP has suffered as a result (1.36). His high strikeout rate and impressive groundball-to-flyball mark (2.66) help to keep his ERA down.
15. Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds and fantasy owners have found their ace in Harang. He's logged heavy innings in the past three years, having hurled 200 or more innings pitched in each season (231 2/3 last year). He also matched his career-high with 16 victories in 2007 and pitched to a career-low 3.73 ERA. He's been able to pitch to three consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons despite pitching in the Great American Ballpark (4.12 home ERA). The key to his success has been his improved strikeout rate and ability to limit walks (218 strikeouts last year against 52 walks). Assuming he can keep his free passes to a minimum, he'll continue to provide fantasy owners with solid four-category production. He's been able to perform well despite allowing more flyballs than groundballs during his career.
14. John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves
Fantasy owners were concerned about Smoltz's endurance upon his return to the rotation following three years as one of the game's top closers. He answered those concerns by topping 200 innings pitched in each of those seasons, while winning 44 games with a composite 3.27 ERA. He's also averaged 192 strikeouts during this three-year period. The 40-year-old hurler shows no signs of slowing down as he enters 2008 and will be invigorated by the return of Tom Glavine to town.
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
Hamels impressed fans and fantasy owners during his 2006 debut. He took a major leap forward to superstardom while pitching behind the potent Phillies offense in 2007. He won 15 games against five losses with a stellar 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The 6-foot-3 lefty mixes his pitches well and keeps hitters guessing. He struck out 4.12 hitters per walk allowed and improved steadily through the balance of the year. He won five of his 10 second-half starts with dominant ERA (2.78) and WHIP (0.96) marks. One adjustment he'll need to make is to work the ball lower in the zone and induce more groundballs (he induced 1.13 ground balls per flyball allowed in 2007). That ratio is dangerous in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
12. Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Oswalt experienced a dropoff in performance for the second straight year. His ERA rose to 3.18, the second-highest mark of his career, and he established a new career-worst WHIP (1.33). He's never missed bats (He's allowed 220 or more hits in four consecutive seasons), but he'd always limited his walks. Even though his numbers dipped, I'd be remiss if I failed to note his 3.18 ERA still ranked 10th among qualifying pitchers. His 154 strikeouts tied him for 34th among pitchers, and he tied for 28th in wins with 14. He's won at least 10 games in seven consecutive seasons with six years of 14 or more victories (He's won 20 twice). The Houston offense has been shuffled and should provide more support in 2008.
11. John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels
The Angels' ace established new career marks in several categories during his phenomenal 2007 season. Lackey won 19 games with a smallish 3.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while completing a career-high 224 innings. He also allowed the fewest walks of his career and struck out 3.44 hitters per free pass. The Angels have reloaded their offense for 2008 while improving their defense in the outfield. As a result, Lackey may come close to replicating his 2007 career year.
10. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
Halladay's gotten past his two freak injury-shortened campaigns to post back-to-back 200-inning seasons (222 2/3 innings per season) with 16 wins in each. It marked his fifth season with double-digit victories in the past six years. He did record the worst full-season ERA of his career, but it was still a respectable 3.71 mark in the stacked AL East. The Blue Jays are expected to make some noise in the division this year. They have a potent lineup and one of the best closers in the game in B.J. Ryan. As such, he should continue to post 15-20 wins with solid ERA and WHIP totals. Fantasy owners would like to see him posting big strikeout numbers once again, but that doesn't appear to be in the offing. Owners will have to settle for his dominant ground ball-to-flyball rate (2.21 career mark).
9. Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs
He failed to produce the Cy Young Award-worthy campaign he predicted in spring training, but I enjoyed the boldness of his statements. Although Zambrano didn't win the hardware, he still offered a tremendous final stat line for fantasy owners. He established a new career mark with 18 wins and still fanned 177 hitters. He also eclipsed 200 innings pitched for the fifth straight campaign, so there's some comfort in his status as a workhorse. Unfortunately, he continues to see his efforts beset by a frightening walk total (216 the past two years). As a result, is ERA rose to a career-high 3.95 and his 1.33 WHIP was his worst mark since 2002. The friendly confines of Wrigley Field didn't treat him well. He pitched to a 4.96 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in front of the home fans. He pitched to an impressive 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road while limiting opponents to a composite .211 batting average against. Perhaps he pressed in front of the home fans (with whom he had a strained relationship in 2007) following his bold preseason talk. I expect him to get back on his game in 2008.
8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
Haren became a workhorse during his three years in the Oakland rotation, racking up 221 innings pitched per year and a total of 43 wins. His WHIP's been remarkably consistent during this period (1.22, 1.21 and 1.21), as he's done a phenomenal job of limiting his walks (3.47 strikeouts per walk allowed). He also works inside on hitters and induces groundballs. He's induced 1.29 groundballs per flyball allowed in his career. Expect more of the same from him in 2008. He'll reduce his ERA while increasing his strikeout total upon moving to the National League.
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| The 100 miles-per-hour heater is taking Justin Verlander places, like into the top 10 fantasy rankings. (Jeff Gross / Getty Images) |
7. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Verlander took the fantasy world by storm with a tremendous rookie campaign in 2006. He posted 17 wins and a stellar 3.63 ERA. He delivered on huge expectations in 2007, earning 18 wins while improving his WHIP markedly as he learned to work the plate more effectively. Most impressively, he improved his strikeout rate as well. He averaged 8.17 strikeouts per nine innings in 2007, a huge improvement over his six strikeouts per nine innings mark of 2006. You can expect similar returns in 2008. The Tigers are locked and loaded, and Verlander will find himself pitching from the lead with regularity.
6. Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles
According to recent reports, the Orioles may be close to consummating the long-rumored deal of Bedard to the Mariners. He's pitched brilliantly in the past two seasons despite a decided lack of offensive support. He's improved his ERA, WHIP and strikeout totals in three consecutive seasons. Additionally, he absolutely crushed his previous strikeout total while appearing in only 28 games. He struck out 221 hitters in 182 innings pitched, a frightening 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He also impressively fans 2.52 hitters per walk allowed. He's a strong three-category pitcher in Baltimore. Fantasy owners would receive aid in the win category if this deal is completed.
5. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox believed Beckett would turn things around after a tough 2006 season in which he pitched to a difficult 5.01 ERA. They couldn't have possibly expected him to reduce his ERA by 1.74 runs (3.27) and surrender 19 fewer home runs. Paramount to his success was the fact he cut his walk rate nearly in half while striking out a career-high 194 hitters. Fantasy owners know they'll see heavy innings from Beckett while pitching behind the potent Red Sox lineup. He's topped 200 innings pitched in back-to-back seasons and has now won 51 games in the past three seasons. I'm encouraged by the fact he posted a strong 1.29 groundball-to-flyball rate in 2007. That portends to more big totals in 2008.
4. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
Sabathia snatched the American League Cy Young award from Beckett, posting 19 wins against seven losses while establishing new career marks in all four traditional fantasy categories (241 innings pitched, 209 strikeouts and a 3.21 ERA). Sabathia's truly elevated his game in the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.21 composite ERA. He owned a 4.10 ERA in his first five major league seasons. Despite the occasional injury concerns, he's still logged 180 or more innings pitched with double-digit victories in seven consecutive seasons. Make it eight in 2008. Amazingly, he'll only turn 28 in July.
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Overall: Catcher: First base: Second base: Shortstop: Third base: Outfield: Starting pitcher: Middle reliever: Closers: | ||
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3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks
Webb's established himself as one of the top options in the game, a stable pitcher who takes the hill every fifth day. He eats innings for fantasy owners, having thrown 208 or more in four consecutive years (at least 180 2/3 in each of his five major league seasons). He's improved his ERA in three consecutive seasons and has seen his win total rise as well. Additionally, he's averaged three strikeouts per walk allowed in this three-year period. He established new career marks in three standard categories with 18 wins, 3.01 ERA and 194 strikeouts.
2. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Everything came together for Peavy in 2007, and he established new career marks in wins (19), strikeouts (240) and innings pitched (223 1/3). He recorded double-digit wins for the fifth straight year and logged at least 200 innings pitched and 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive season. He effectively limits his walks (3.13 strikeouts per walk allowed), an important factor in his dominant performances given that he owns a career groundball-to-flyball ratio under 1.00. Like teammate Young, pitching in PETCO Park and the spacious outfields of the NL West suits Peavy just fine. He owns a career 2.86 ERA with a scintillating 1.10 WHIP at home. He's also pitched to three sub-3.00 ERAs in the past four years. His dominance at home and full-season brilliance pushes him to second of my rankings.
1. Johan Santana, New York Mets
A move to the National League takes this perennial fantasy powerhouse to another level. Think about the possibilities with frequent matchups with the Nationals and Marlins on tap. First, let's review his history. Santana's established himself as a top option in his four years as a starter while averaging 228 innings pitched per season. He racked up 4.96 strikeouts per walk allowed during this period, and his 1.07 WHIP in 2007 marked his highest full-season effort. Fantasy owners know the drill with him. He'll struggle through the end of May, then dominates the competition thereafter. He owns a career 20-16 record with a 4.14 ERA and sizable 1.26 WHIP in the first halves of his four seasons as a starter, but possesses a 2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and ridiculous 73-28 record following the All-Star break.
However, moving to the Mets, fantasy owners won't need to wait for Santana to post his dominant totals this year. He'll begin producing from day one at Shea Stadium, where he has allowed one earned run in two career starts (and those efforts came against strong New York lineups). Think back to when Roger Clemens joined the Astros. Don't worry about the Mitchell Report and all of the non-mound issues of those years. Clemens came to the National League and took advantage of more weak opponents and his ability to face opposing pitchers and more defensive specialists. Look at this way. He won't be facing the American League East powerhouses as we'd expected, so owners can rest more comfortably when considering his ERA and WHIP potential.
I believe Santana will battle Peavy for the National League Cy Young award. He'll challenge his career marks across the board, and I'm going bold with my predictions here. Santana will achieve heights that force the Mets onto the back pages of the New York papers. He'll pitch behind one of the most potent lineups in the game, and he'll routinely pitch with leads. Unlike many of his counterparts at the position, Santana still pitches for perfection in those situations as if the score is one-nil.
Final line: 21 wins, 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 254 strikeouts
Next: Middle Relievers 15-1
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