Middle reliever rankings: Cubs' Marmol tops list

by Mike Harmon

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Updated: February 7, 2008, 2:50 AM EST Comment

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They don't garner headlines or rock star treatment of closers.

The majority of their work doesn't pop off of the page in the box scores. They come in from the pen for an out or an inning and turn the game over to the next arm.

Although these players are appreciated by hometown fans and feel the love in contract negotiations (look at some of the numbers earned this off-season), they're not household names. Of course, fantasy owners know them all too well as important links in the championship run. There are middle relievers who ascend to closer roles each year and help boost scuffling team in the "Saves" category. There are others who rack up ridiculous strikeout totals and pitch enough inning innings to offer substantial help in the ERA and WHIP columns.

I continue my position-by-position rankings with a review of the top middle relievers entering 2008. Several of these hard-throwing youngsters will eventually close games out and may see more than a handful of opportunities as soon as this year.

I'll begin the countdown with a player looking to forget a difficult 2007 campaign.

15. Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays

Wheeler experienced a terrible downturn in productivity in 2007 following two years as one of the game's top setup options in Houston. He saw his ERA double from his 2006 total (2.52 to 5.07) with the Astros before landing with the Rays to close the season. Wheeler then struggled in his new environment, pitching to a miserable 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He did, however, continue to strike out hitters at a tremendous rate (82 in 74 2/3 innings pitched overall and nearly three per walk during his career).

He has been a top-notch strikeout artist during the course of his career and does offer the possibility of saves (22 in the past three years). Wheeler's struggles in the closer role decimated his 2007 season (seven blown saves), but I look for him to bounce back to form.

14. Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox

Dotel joins the sixth team of his major league career with a turn in the Chicago bullpen. The White Sox spent heavily this off-season to shore up a bullpen that was a primary source of frustration for Ozzie Guillen in 2007. Guillen and general manager Kenny Williams are anticipating a return to form from Dotel, who was one of the game's top setup men for years in Houston. He pitched to an ERA below 3.00 in three consecutive seasons before racking up 36 saves between Houston and Oakland in 2004.

The White Sox expect Dotel to continue his strikeout dominance (2.74 per walk allowed and 10.85 per nine innings during his career) and get the ball to Bobby Jenks.

13. Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

Qualls has been a pivotal component of the Houston bullpen for years. He now takes his high strikeout totals to Arizona for 2008. Qualls keeps the ball down (He's averaged 2.17 ground balls per flyball allowed in his career), which will make him even more effective in the spacious ballparks of the National League West. He averages nearly three strikeouts per walk, so he has the ability to get out of trouble. Additionally, Qualls showed tremendous resolve to overcome his early-season struggles of 2007. He pitched to a 4.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in the first half, but was dominant in the second half with a 1.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

12. Jon Rauch, Washington Nationals

At 6-foot-11, Rauch is an imposing figure on the mound. He was originally tabbed as a starter in Chicago with the White Sox, but he's settled into the bullpen in Washington in the past two years. Rauch has pitched to a solid 3.48 ERA during this period while averaging 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched (7.7 hits per nine innings). Most importantly, he's struck out nearly three hitters per walk allowed to keep his WHIP down. Rauch earned eight wins out of the bullpen in 2007 and will undoubtedly log heavy innings once again (173 appearances in the past two years).

11. Brandon Lyon, Arizona Diamondbacks

The former Arizona closer has thrived in middle relief during the past two seasons and remains an option for the occasional save (and more if something should befall Tony Peña). Lyon has moved past the injury that shortened his 2005 season, appearing in 141 games in the past two years and recording 58 holds. He does not possess the devastating strikeout pitch normally required of closers (40 in 74 innings pitched), but he's become increasingly more effective. He established new career-low marks in ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.24).

10. Scott Linebrink, Chicago White Sox

The veteran reliever split time between San Diego and Milwaukee in 2007. He now joins the re-tooled White Sox bullpen for 2008. Linebrink was one of the most effective setup men in the game for several years, working alongside Trevor Hoffman to close out games for the Padres. Linebrink pitched to a dominant 2.57 ERA from the time he joined the Padres through the end of the 2006 season. He strikes out 2.38 hitters per inning pitched and will be part of a two-man setup combo with Dotel to get the ball to Jenks.

9. Aaron Heilman, New York Mets

Aaron Heilman had a career year in 2007 and should have a heavy workload as the Mets challenge for the postseason. (Nick Laham / Getty Images)
Heilman experienced the best season of his career with the Mets. He appeared in 81 games and earned seven wins while posting career-low ERA (3.03) and WHIP (1.07) marks. Heilman achieved these heights despite the fact that his strikeout rate fell for the second straight season. The key to his success has been that Heilman has been largely unhittable (7.43 hits allowed per nine innings), and he strikes out nearly three hitters per walk (2.84). The Mets are set for another run toward the post-season, and that portends to another heavy workload for Heilman this season.

8. Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins

The Marlins leaned heavily on Lindstrom during his rookie season, as the 27-year-old reliever appeared in 71 games (67 innings pitched). Lindstrom racked up an impressive strikeout total (8.33 per nine innings) en route to a strong 3.09 ERA. He struck out nearly three hitters per walk allowed and surrendered only two home runs, an impressive mark for any pitcher, let alone a rookie. Lindstrom positively dominated the opposition at home, pitching to a scintillating 2.09 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Obviously, he'll need to adapt to pitching on the road (4.45 ERA and 1.69 WHIP). I believe he'll be up to the task.

7. Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels

Shields didn't close the 2007 season with the same level of dominance to which fantasy owners and Angels fans had become accustomed. The season started well for Shields as he rolled to a stellar 1.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning. He then pitched to a ballooned 7.36 ERA in the second half, and opponents batted a composite .300 against him (.160 in the first half).

I anticipate a bounce-back campaign from Shields in 2008, although his average of 70 appearances during the past four seasons is somewhat disconcerting. The most important statistic that needs to turn around is his ground ball-to-flyball ratio. That ratio dipped to a career-low 1.29 mark in 2007. Shields had pitched to a ratio of 1.61 or better in four consecutive years.

6. Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians

Betancourt posted the finest season of his career in the setup role for the Indians in 2007. His final numbers were positively mind-boggling. Betancourt struck out 80 hitters and surrendered only nine walks. That level of efficiency translated into dominant marks across the board (5-1 record, 1.47 ERA and 0.76 WHIP) in 2007, numbers superior to his five-year totals. To that end, Betancourt does own strong career marks in the ERA (2.80) and WHIP (1.06) categories.

He's pitched to a phenomenal rate of 4.6 strikeouts per walk (9.13 per nine innings pitched) during his five-year major league career. Betancourt limits hitters to 7.53 hits per nine innings pitched, a level that will make him a valuable addition to fantasy lineups to aid the strikeout, ERA and WHIP categories in 2008.

HARMON'S RANKINGS

5. Hideki Okajima, Boston Red Sox

Okajima arrived with far less fanfare than fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka, but he was no less important to Boston's run to the championship. Okajima dominated opposing hitters through the end of July, allowing just five earned runs in his first 51.67 innings pitched. Like Matsuzaka, his overall numbers slipped down the stretch (6.23 ERA in the final two months).

I expect Okajima to return to his dominant form in 2008. He fanned 3.71 hitters per walk allowed and limited opposing hitters to a composite .202 batting average. The Red Sox are loaded for another championship run, and they'll rely on this second-year lefty to set up Jonathan Papelbon. Remember, he also saved five games in 2007 and can be called upon to close out games as necessary.

4. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton wasn't ready for his turn in the closer role in 2007, but he obliterated the competition from the setup role. The 23-year-old fireballer has produced astounding strikeout totals during his two full seasons in Los Angeles, racking up 196 strikeouts in 158 1/3 innings pitched (11.14 per nine innings pitched). Broxton has struck out three batters per walk while allowing 7.39 hits per nine innings. Opponents have yet to catch up to his fastball, and I expect nothing short of another outstanding campaign from this budding star.

3. Pat Neshek, Minnesota Twins

Neshek has emerged as a phenomenal bridge between the Twins' starters and dominant closer Joe Nathan. He made his debut in 2006 with sterling ERA and WHIP numbers (2.19 and 0.78, respectively) and was nearly as effective in his second major-league campaign (2.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Opposing hitters have been unable to catch up with Neshek, accruing a miserable .181 composite batting average against the former Butler Bulldogs standout. He mows down opposing hitters, striking out 10.64 hitters per nine innings (3.8 strikeouts per walk).

2. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres

After several years with the Mets, Bell emerged as a phenomenal late-inning option for the Padres in 2007. Bell piled up 93 2/3 innings pitched (1.16 innings per appearance), allowing just three home runs while striking out 102 hitters. Bell averaged 3.4 strikeouts per walk, a positively dominant ratio that led to many Trevor Hoffman finishes. The Padres will once again compete for the division crown, and that means that the formula from 2007 will be replicated. Interestingly, Bell was actually more effective on the road last year, pitching to a brilliant 1.46 ERA with zero home runs allowed in 49 1/3 innings of work. He's induced 2.81 ground balls per flyball allowed (2.17 in his career), and that portends to low ERA and WHIP totals once again.

1. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

Marmol will compete against former closer Bob Howry and Kerry Wood for the closer role in Chicago this spring. Ryan Dempster returns to the rotation. For now, I'll presume that Lou Piniella utilizes Marmol in the setup role for 2008. Marmol dominated opponents to the tune of a 1.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He allowed three home runs in 69 1/3 innings pitched, and fanned 12.46 hitters per nine innings. Marmol allowed only 5.3 hits per nine innings, making him a phenomenal conduit between the starters and the Cubs closer. His time as a closer will come, but I believe he begins the year in the setup role.

Next: Closers

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