Closer rankings: Papelbon's first
Of course, there are exceptions to the last sentence, as Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera have been deified in their respective cities for their years of dominance. I know, there's a stark difference in postseason stats, but that's an argument for another time.
I conclude my positional rankings today with by doffing the proverbial cap in the direction of closers. Turnover is high at this pressure-packed position. A popular draft strategy has been to wait out the bargains while shoring up other positions and then working the waiver wire diligently. Whatever your strategy, they get your heart pounding on game day.
Let's start in Baltimore, where I suspect that a battle looms before this season ends.
30. Jamie Walker, Baltimore Orioles
There are many questions facing the Orioles as the 2008 season approaches. Will they deal Erik Bedard or Brian Roberts? Who will drive in runs? Who will fill out the rotation? And who will close out games?For now, the answer to the last question appears to be Walker. He saved seven games for the Orioles last year following the season-ending injury to Chris Ray. Walker pitched to solid, albeit unspectacular, totals in the ERA and WHIP categories (3.23 and 1.21, respectively). I'm somewhat concerned by his lack of strikeout punch for this role (41 in 61 1/3 innings last year). The eight-year veteran opens camp in the role. We'll monitor the Orioles to see if a new candidate emerges.
29. C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers
The Rangers turned to Wilson to close out games in the final two months of 2007, and the former fifth-round draft pick delivered. Wilson saved 12 games to close out the year, pitching to a stellar 2.19 ERA in August before getting lit up for a 7.56 ERA and bloated 1.92 WHIP in September. He allowed 50 hits in 68 1/3 innings pitched, part of the closer success equation, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio leaves something to be desired (1.91). If he can improve on that number, Wilson will retain the job and offer a cheap source of saves for 2008. If not, the team signed former fantasy hero Eddie Guardado to shore up the pen and retained Joaquin Benoit.28. Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays
The veteran hurler returned to the field for the Cardinals in 2007 after missing the 2006 season in its entirety. Percival appeared in 34 games and mowed down opposing hitters to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He regained his strikeout form of old, fanning 36 hitters in 40 innings pitched (He walked 10). The .171 composite batting average of opposing hitters in 2007 was the lowest recorded against Percival since 1996.Percival parlayed his brilliance return to the field into the closer role for the Rays in 2008. The team boasts two strong arms at the top of the rotation (Scott Kazmir and James Shields), and I suspect that he'll thrive in this situation. To return to the field at age 38 and dominate as he did, how can I doubt him?
27. Bob Howry, Chicago Cubs
My gut tells me that Carlos Marmol eventually bests Howry and former starter Kerry Wood for the job in spring training, but we'll give him the nod here for now. Howry has pitched well in two seasons for the Cubs, earning 43 holds and 13 saves while pitching to a solid 3.25 ERA. He vastly improved his strikeout rate upon entering the National League and effectively limits his walks, two areas of paramount importance in the closer role.26. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Wilson pitched only 23 2/3 innings of major league ball in 2007, but it appears that he's the frontrunner for the closer role in San Francisco following a phenomenal debut. He did not allow an earned run in 11 August appearances spanning 11 2/3 innings. Wilson allowed six earned runs in 13 September appearances, four of which came in one outing. He limited opponents to a .188 batting average and struck out 18 hitters with a 1.68 ground ball-to-flyball ratio. The Giants have a strong young starting rotation that should afford him opportunities late. Of course, that means that the offense will need to a score a run or two along the way. At present, that appears to be the larger concern.25. Tony Peña, Arizona Diamondbacks
Peña assumes the closer role with the departure of Jose Valverde for Houston. He shone brightly in middle relief last season, amassing solid ERA and WHIP totals (3.27 and 1.10, respectively) in 75 appearances. Most impressively, Peña was unhittable for stretches and allowed just 6.64 hits per nine innings. His strikeout rate isn't dominant for a closer (6.64 to match his hit rate), but he turned in a solid ground ball-to-flyball rate (1.18). Peña will need to improve his strikeout-to-walk ratio (2-to-1) to rise to the elite level of closers, but he is settling into the role nicely. The Diamondbacks strengthened their rotation with the addition of Dan Haren. They now have a full rotation that can get the ball into the pen to close out wins. Peña is a tremendous value option at the position this year.24. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan has begun to throw as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and there's an outside chance that the 6-foot-6 lefty will be back by opening day. Fantasy owners looking to snag Ryan on hopes that the Jays will compete for the AL East in 2008 should snag Jeremy Accardo as insurance (Accardo accumulated 30 saves in place of Ryan last year).The Blue Jays are hoping Ryan can return to pre-surgery form, as he had become one of the game's top closers. In two years in the role (one in Baltimore, one in Toronto), Ryan had saved 74 games while striking out 186 hitters in 142 2/3 innings pitched. Opponents struggle mightily with his fastball, and he rarely issues walks. That's a devastating combination that makes him a top option when healthy.
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| Chad Cordero has a good number of saves in recent years, but some of his numbers in 2007 were pretty poor. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images) |
23. Kevin Gregg, Florida Marlins
Gregg ascended to the closer role early in 2007 for the Marlins and proceeded to earn 32 saves while appearing in 74 games. Opponents combined to bat .206 against him, with left-handers batting an anemic .162. Gregg posted a respectable 1.23 WHIP, although his ERA was a tad bloated for relievers at 3.54. Still, it was his best effort since joining the Angels full-time in 2004.There are two things to consider in the selection of Gregg this year. I won't even worry about the source of save opportunities post-Dontrelle. Every team generates ample work for their closer. I'm more concerned about Gregg's inflated 3.88 home ERA in one of the league's biggest parks and his unusually high flyball rate. Gregg allowed nearly twice as many flyballs as groundballs in 2007. I understand that many of those will fall harmlessly into the gloves of waiting outfielders in Dolphins Stadium, but that rate portends to trouble ahead.
22. Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals
The 2007 season was, at times, a very trying year for Cordero. He experienced several difficult stretches that resulted in career-worst ERA and WHIP numbers (3.36 and 1.39, respectively). Cordero was markedly more hittable in 2007, surrendering one hit per inning of work. He had allowed an average of 0.77 hits per inning in his previous four years. Additionally, he walked more hitters while his strikeout rate dipped. All in all, it was a forgettable year for the previously dominant hurler, although he did manage 37 saves.
Cordero has amassed 113 saves in the past three seasons in Washington, proof that save opportunities occur can be found on any squad. With Jon Rauch bridging the gap from the starters, Cordero will push for a strong save total again. His WHIP likely won't return to his sub-1.00 total of 2005 nor will his ERA fall back below 2.00 as in that year. But a 35-save season with an ERA hovering around 3.00 and WHIP in the 1.20's makes him a decent pickup late.
21. Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates
Expectations were high for Capps coming out of spring training, and he did not disappoint in the closer role. Capps earned 18 saves and did a phenomenal job in limiting free passes (16 in 79 innings pitched), something that will be paramount to his future success given his propensity to allow flyballs (106 flyballs against 73 ground balls). Capps struck out four hitters per walk allowed and surrendered 7.29 hits per nine innings pitched. He settled into his role in the second half and is primed for a big year. Just know that it will take some time to amass those numbers.20. Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies
According to reports from Denver, the Rockies are seeking to lock Corpas into a long-term deal. As a result, he would appear to be in the driver's seat for the closer role in 2008 in place of former closer Brian Fuentes. Corpas was nearly untouchable in the second half, yielding six earned runs in 35 innings pitched. That included the four home runs that he allowed!Corpas pitched to a spectacular 2.08 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Amazingly, his ERA at Coors Field was lower than his road mark (1.96 versus 2.21). The key to his success in 2007 was his ability to induce ground balls (2.43 per flyball allowed). It goes without saying that he'll need to replicate that mark in Coors Field to keep his ERA and WHIP numbers in check.
19. Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians
Borowski owns a tenusous hold on the closer role in Cleveland. He earned 45 saves in his 69 appearances for the squad last year, but each one was an adventure. Borowski allowed 77 hits to yield a 1.43 WHIP (his career WHIP is 1.36) and opponents hit .289 off of him. He strikes hitters out at a decent clip (7.99 per nine innings), but the hit rate is disconcerting. Owners grabbing Borowski should be sure to set a deep bullpen in the event that he is deposed by Rafael Betancourt.18. Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers
Jones' low strikeout rate leaps from the page each year as we begin the draft season, but in the end, he's still racking up sizable save totals. He's saved 75 games in two seasons for the Tigers following his career-high 40 saves for the Marlins in 2005. Jones is no friend to fantasy owners' ERA and WHIP columns (4.09 and 1.34 in the past two years). However, those looking only for saves will find a bucketful cheaply on draft day. The Tigers are going for broke, having bolstered an already stacked lineup and their rotation. Jones is set for another season of 35 or more saves. Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney will have to wait.
17. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Herein lies a great example of a closer emerging before your very eyes. Fantasy owners had no reason to suspect that Soria would receive a chance to close in Kansas City as a rookie, let alone handle the job superbly. He struck out 75 hitters against just 19 walks in 69 innings pitched. Most impressive was Soria's low hit rate. Opposing hitters offered a miserable .187 batting average, producing 46 hits in 69 innings. Soria served up only three home runs. The owners in your league won't clamor for a closer with the "KC" abbreviation next to his name, so you may pick up Soria cheaply.16. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals
Isringhausen rebounded beautifully from a subpar 2006 campaign, drastically reducing his hit and walk rates to yield a 1.07 WHIP (down 0.39 from 2006). He surrendered six fewer home runs and improved his ground ball-to-flyball ratio by 0.19. Isringhausen has now saved 32 or more games in seven of the past eight seasons (He saved 22 games in an injury-shortened 2003 campaign).The 2006 season was an anomaly. Isringhausen's velocity bounced back, and his totals compared favorably to his totals from 2001-05 across the board. Expect more of the same production from Isringhausen in 2008.
15. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies
After six years in Houston, Lidge takes up residence as the closer in Philadelphia. He posted two dominant years for fantasy owners in 2004 and 2005 when he obliterated opposing hitters en route to 71 saves. Lidge has been less effective in the past two seasons and actually spent the first half of 2007 in middle relief after two rough outings to open the year. He pitched to a strong 2.34 ERA, but had several difficult outings after returning to the closing role and saw his second-half ERA rise to 4.45. Interestingly, opponents batted just three points higher against him in the first half than they had in the second half. Lidge finished 2007 with a career-worst eight blown saves.Lidge remains a strong contributor to fantasy owners' strikeout columns, averaging 12.59 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. More importantly, he's struck out 3.3 hitters per walk allowed. Lidge's high flyball rate is somewhat troubling as he takes up residence in Citizens Bank Ballpark, but it's no worse a ballpark for pitchers than Minute Maid Park. Philadelphia will give him ample opportunities to save games, and the change of environment may be the thing he needs to get back to his former dominant self.
14. Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves
Soriano endured several hardships on his way to earning the closer role in Atlanta. He appeared in 13 games for the Mariners during the 2004 and 2005 seasons before excelling in middle relief during the 2006 season (2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 9.75 strikeouts per nine innings). Soriano then moved to Atlanta and continued his hold over hitters. He struck out 70 hitters in 72 innings of work, pitching to a phenomenal 0.86 WHIP. The lone blemish on his record was that his total of home runs surrendered doubled from six to 12. As a result, his ERA rose to an even 3.00.The Braves expect Soriano to continue to confound opposing hitters in 2008. He allowed 5.9 hitters per nine innings pitched in 2007 while striking out 4.7 hitters per walk allowed. Soriano has limited opponents to a composite .203 batting average during his six years of major league service, so there's no reason to expect a huge drop-off. He saved nine games last season and will receive frequent chances out of the Atlanta bullpen this year. Soriano is a tremendous four-category performer who may slip in some leagues based on the lack of name recognition.
13. Eric Gagne, Milwaukee Brewers
Gagne reclaimed his role as one of the game's most imposing finishers in the first half of 2007. He pitched to a brilliant 1.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and struck out 23 hitters in 27 1/3 innings pitched. Things fell apart upon his arrival to Boston. Gagne struggled in the second half, allowing 34 hits in 24 2/3 innings pitched to yield a bloated 6.57 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. While the increased hit rate can't be disputed, I would be remiss if I failed to point out that four miserable outings were chiefly responsible for the final totals.The question remains as to whether Gagne can dominate hitters through a full campaign (He last did so in 2004). He started well with his 2.16 ERA in 34 appearances for the Rangers, and I believe he can approach those numbers in Milwaukee. Don't forget that he's almost two years removed from the injury that shut him down. Fatigue should be less of a concern in year two.
12. Huston Street, Oakland Athletics
Fantasy owners placed huge expectations on Street as he entered his third year as a closer in 2007. Unfortunately, injuries affected Street's game and limited him to 48 appearances. As such, he finished the year with just 16 saves, 21 fewer than his 2006 mark. Street did, however, still contribute positively to fantasy owners' efforts overall, as he pitched to a strong 2.88 ERA, career-low 0.94 WHIP with five wins and 63 strikeouts in 50 innings pitched. It's that last statistic that pops off of the page for me. He has the stuff to overpower hitters and send them back to the dugout. That knockout punch makes him a strong candidate for a bounce-back year.
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| Some of the White Sox additions to middle relief should help Bobby Jenks have another strong year in 2008. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images) |
11 Jose Valverde, Houston Astros
Valverde joins the Astros as the closer in a revamped bullpen. Gone are Chad Qualls, Lidge and Dan Wheeler for 2008. Valverde makes the move after experiencing a career year for the Diamondbacks in which he saved 47 games and pitched to a stellar ERA and WHIP marks (2.66 and 1.12, respectively). He strikes out three hitters per walk, a number that he'll need to match to succeed in Minute Maid Park. I was impressed by his ability to improve his game during the course of the 2007 season, actually posting a bigger strikeout rate after the break while limiting opponents to a .192 batting average. If Valverde can keep the ball down in Houston, he'll post another strong year.10. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Following a brief stay in Milwaukee, Cordero moves to the Reds and replaces David Weathers in the closer role. Cordero posted his strongest performance since 2004 with the Brewers last year, racking up 44 saves with 86 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings pitched while posting strong ERA and WHIP totals (2.98 and 1.11, respectively). His level of performance upon arriving in Milwaukee in 2006 (16 saves and a phenomenal 1.69 ERA) served as a harbinger of things to come.Cordero will need to adapt to the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, but his past success in Arlington at Ameriquest Field leads me to believe that he'll be just fine. Cordero pitched to ERAs of 2.13 and 3.39 in two full seasons while earning 86 saves (2004 and 2005). Look for his ERA to rise somewhat in his new environment, but there's no reason to expect anything short of 30 saves.
9. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox
Jenks makes every outing an adventure, but the results are normally positive for the White Sox and fantasy owners. In fact, Jenks has settled into the role and actually improved dramatically in 2007. He reduced his ERA by 1.23, an immediate payoff of his improved control. Jenks cut his walk rate immensely. He also saw his strikeout rate drop. Jenks improved as a pitcher, no longer relying on rearing back for fastball after fastball. He'll be aided tremendously by the additions of Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink in middle relief, one of the team's biggest headaches of 2007. Jenks will notch his third straight 40-save season in 2008.
8. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres
I won't belabor the point here. There are few closers who are more effective than Hoffman when he's sound. He's saved 31 or more games in 12 of the past 13 seasons including a current streak of four straight seasons with at least 41 saves. Additionally, Hoffman owns a career 2.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He won't help much in the strikeout column any longer, but he still gets it done.The Padres have a strong rotation and stellar middle relief to get the ball into Hoffman's hands. So long as there as no holdover issues from the bone chips in his elbow that caused him to slow somewhat down the stretch (He appeared in only eight September games), another 40-save effort is in the offing. Some may point to his 4.44 ERA after the All-Star break as signs of an overall slowdown. They forget to factor in that Hoffman did pitch to a stellar 1.13 ERA in his eight September efforts.
7. Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Wagner has become one of the game's most consistent contributors from this position. This hard-throwing lefty continues to dominate opposing hitters and enters the season in need of 42 saves to reach 400 for his career. The addition of Johan Santana to front the pitching staff and the return of Pedro Martinez leads me to believe he'll reach those heights in September of this year.The 12-year major league veteran has registered 30 or more saves in eight of the past 10 seasons (Two seasons were cut short by injuries). Wagner has struck out 3.9 hitters per walk allowed during his career, pitching to head-scratching ERA and WHIP totals (2.63 and 1.02, respectively). The acquisition of Santana is an auspicious beginning to the 2008 season. Wagner will be one of the chief beneficiaries of a potent offense and bolstered rotation.
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Overall: Catcher: First base: Second base: Shortstop: Third base: Outfield: Starting pitcher: Middle reliever: Closers: | ||
6. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Like Hoffman, the lone reason to worry about Rivera is the possibility of an injury. He struggled in April, allowing nine earned runs in a four-performance span and finished the month with a 10.57 ERA. Fans and fantasy owners were concerned that Rivera had lost it. For the balance of the year, he pitched to a 2.07 ERA in 69 2/3 innings of work. Everyone's entitled to a bad month, right?Rivera has saved 30 or more games in 10 of the past 11 years (He saved 28 in the injury-shortened 2002 campaign). He continues to strike out hitters in bunches (74 in 71 1/3 innings last year) and owns a career 1.05 WHIP. Rivera's 1.12 WHIP in 2007 was his highest mark since 1997. You know that the Yankees will win their share of games regardless of who takes the mound for the first pitch, and Rivera will be there to turn the lights out.
5. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
The numbers generated by Saito since joining the Dodgers in 2006 are simply mind-bending. Saito has saved 63 games while posting scintillating ERA and WHIP numbers (1.77 and 0.82, respectively). He strikes out 1.3 hitters per inning and has allowed only 36 walks in two seasons. That's 5.13 strikeouts per walk!The Dodgers have Jonathan Broxton waiting in the wings. He'll stay there while Saito continues to dominate opposing hitters for Joe Torre.
4. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
One of the game's best closers lost one of his top sources of work this week when the Twins dealt Johan Santana to the Mets. Nathan has earned 36 or more saves in four consecutive seasons while striking out hitters at a clip of 10.9 hitters per nine innings. He owns a strong career WHIP of 1.15 (1.02 or lower in five consecutive seasons) and has limited opposing hitters to a .207 batting average. There's no question that Nathan will be on his game when called upon, but his opportunities may be more spaced as Minnesota re-tools its rotation. The team expects Francisco Liriano will be ready for opening day, but there will be great competition to fill out the rotation in spring training.3. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels
Rodriguez earned his third consecutive 40-save season in 2007, and while his WHIP and ERA numbers rose, he continued to mow down hitters (90 strikeouts). The Angels have added another arm in Jon Garland, and the outfield defense was improved by the addition of Torii Hunter to patrol center field. Rodriguez strikes out 3.11 hitters per walk allowed, which keeps his WHIP and ERA down. In fact, his 2.81 ERA in 2007 was the highest of his career.2. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners
Putz has emerged as a top-flight closer option for fantasy owners in the past two years following his promotion from middle relief. He earned 76 saves while striking out 186 hitters in 150 innings pitched. By way of contrast, Putz allowed 96 hits during that two-year span. He took his game to a new level in 2007, limiting opponents to a feeble .153 batting average and walking only 13 hitters in 71 2/3 innings of work. I have no doubt that he'll once again be among the top performers in 2008.1. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Soz
Papelbon continued his mastery of opposing hitters with another superb campaign in 2007. He actually improved his strikeout ratio and marginally reduced his WHIP (by .01) in helping the Red Sox to another title. Papelbon has limited opponents to a .180 batting average (.146 in 2007) and strikes out 4.3 hitters per walk. The Red Sox are stacked for another run to the post-season, and there's no doubt that their closer will reap the benefits. The lone area of concern with Papelbon is his propensity to keep the ball up. Opponents hit 1.4 flyballs per ground ball off of Papelbon, which can come back to haunt him in the AL East. It hasn't yet, and there's no reason to anticipate that it will so long as he can overpower the vast majority of opposing hitters.Next: The Top 300






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